WPAC: KAMMURI - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 240600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 240600.
WARNING VALID 250600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 08N 161E WNW SLOWLY.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It is very rare for the ECMWF to be this aggressive in the long-range.

[doomhaMwx]

Looks like another late-season headache with regards to the forecast track as models indicate bi/trifurcation once over the Philippine Sea.
Extended GFS run has it meandering east of Luzon instead of continuing west. Even the latest ECMWF deterministic and ensembles are inconclusive.

But the Philippines has plenty of time to watch this. The first one that needs to be alert/prepared is the Marianas.

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 241200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 241200.
WARNING VALID 251200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 08N 160E WNW SLOWLY.

[mrbagyo]

94W INVEST 191124 1200 4.1N 157.3E WPAC 20 1002

Pretty big discrepancy on JTWC and JMA's position

[1900hurricane]

JTWC looks like they're on the second vort max while JMA is on the first interestingly enough. I think the first vort max will be the one that ends up establishing itself. JMA's position looks more tied to the developing disturbance while JTWC's looks more associated with the NEMT.





*EDIT: I just realized that JTWC's position is west of 160ºE, not east of it. That's a little bit of a headscratcher to me.

[Hayabusa]

[aspen]

Most of the recent GFS runs over the last few days have 94W pass just south of Guam, stall a bit near the Marianas, and turn towards the Philippines. The 12z run from today shows a more SW direction instead of W to WSW, but that is post-120 hours out and very up in the air (no pun intended). Guam and the southern Marianas should definitely keep an eye out on this.

[Highteeld]

[Hayabusa]

Euro is really hyping the intensity, last time I saw Euro this hyped was during Hagibis

[Hayabusa]

[cycloneye]

The JMA and JTWC positions are still different at 18z.

[1900hurricane]

Many strong members among the left side of EPS's bifurcation.

[Hayabusa]

If this becomes a named storm this November then this would be the 6th named storm this November. October 2013 had 7 named storms.

Next name is Kammuri. Kammuri doesn't have a typhoon title yet, can Kammuri reach the stars this time?

[aspen]

If this becomes a named storm this November then this would be the 6th named storm this November. October 2013 had 7 named storms.

Next name is Kammuri. Kammuri doesn't have a typhoon title yet, can Kammuri reach the stars this time?

The global models sure want future Kammuri to do so. SSTs/OHC are still high enough to support a Category 5 super typhoon, so as long as other environmental conditions are favorable, those predictions will likely live up. Speaking of the global models, the GFS and NAVGEM want yet another named system to form behind 94W/Kammuri by mid-late week or next weekend.

[aspen]

The HWRF is by far the most aggressive model in the short term and has 94W bomb out to <935 mbar within 90-120 hours. The GFS, Euro, CMC, and NAVGEM don’t show RI until after that time frame, once it enters the Philippine Sea.

[mrbagyo]

WWJP27 RJTD 241800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 241800.
WARNING VALID 251800.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 08N 159E WNW SLOWLY.


94W INVEST 191124 1800 4.3N 156.9E WPAC 20 1002

Based on the 18z position of the agencies, 94W has already passed 160E however when I checked the latest visible loop - the LLC appears to be located just southwest of the northern cloud cluster near 7.5N, 162E.

Or it may be just a random vortex since it's highly probable that there are several circulations embedded on this Near Equatorial trough

[Hayabusa]

JTWC went with JMA

94W INVEST 191125 0000 8.3N 157.7E WPAC 20 1004

[cycloneye]

JTWC went with JMA

94W INVEST 191125 0000 8.3N 157.7E WPAC 20 1004

Finnally they now are aligned.

[mrbagyo]