ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AtlanticWind]

The NHC has this moving generally west at this point, if I were to see a wsw dip than I might be concerned
That the models might respond.

[bamajammer4eva]

Really interested to see how this 'unexpected' 270 motion is going to impact the forecast and the models.. I know the naked eye isnt the 'right' way to observe directional motion, but the last few hours can't be denied.. Starting to think the western erosion is giving Dorian more breathing room than previously anticipated.. If thats the case, this could get crazy fast..

And that, my friends, is why the cone is so dang wide after 72hrs... Little bit of forecaster CYA because mother nature may have a grand plan of her own.. And she doesn't want to share the 411 just yet..

That isn't how the cone works. the last point on the cone is the same diameter circle every time

They need to inform TV Meteorologists of this so they quit misinforming the public! I saw one channel literally say notice the size of the cone by 5 days and then he overlayed the spaghetti models on top of it and he says see-here's why its so big!-I wanna say it was TWC but that wouldn't even make sense with Rick Nabb there-it was probably local CBS here. The cone is always gonna look bigger the slower a storm moves and can become a huge circle! Cone is made by the same size circles every time that get bigger the farther out in time you go

[AutoPenalti]

Dorian is hauling tail right now...

[Blinhart]

The NHC has this moving generally west at this point, if I were to see a wsw dip than I might be concerned
That the models might respond.

300 degree is a big difference to 275-280, and would have a big difference in the long run in the next 12 hours.

[Jr0d]

The NHC has this moving generally west at this point, if I were to see a wsw dip than I might be concerned
That the models might respond.

As I posted before, the west motion was expected, however it appears it's moving significantly faster than forecasted.

[birddogsc]

The NHC has this moving generally west at this point, if I were to see a wsw dip than I might be concerned
That the models might respond.

300 degree is a big difference to 275-280, and would have a big difference in the long run in the next 12 hours.

This isn't 300 degree motion... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-14-96-1-100-6&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=undefined - at least not in the last few hours.

[Aric Dunn]

The NHC has this moving generally west at this point, if I were to see a wsw dip than I might be concerned
That the models might respond.

300 degree is a big difference to 275-280, and would have a big difference in the long run in the next 12 hours.

If this motion keeps up it will cross 72.8 west in a couple hours. 6 hours ahead of the next forecast point and south.

[AtlanticWind]

The NHC has this moving generally west at this point, if I were to see a wsw dip than I might be concerned
That the models might respond.

As I posted before, the west motion was expected, however it appears it's moving significantly faster than forecasted.

If that is the case ,that would be important. they will definitely mention this in the discussion at 5am if this is the case

[Blinhart]

The NHC has this moving generally west at this point, if I were to see a wsw dip than I might be concerned
That the models might respond.

300 degree is a big difference to 275-280, and would have a big difference in the long run in the next 12 hours.

This isn't 300 degree motion... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-14-96-1-100-6&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=undefined - at least not in the last few hours.

The NHC is saying it is going at 300, I think it is the 275-280 and a lot faster than 10 MPH.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Found the Irma plot I was looking for. This is why it's never good to decide you're in the clear four days out.

https://i.imgur.com/0QxnAU8.jpg

That right there is a great indication of why the NHC are so good at what they do. Also why people should pay attention to what they say and not just what the computer models say.

[Snowman67]

Can someone please post a link to a site where you can overlay the NHC official forecast points over the satellite and radar? Thanks.

[eastcoastFL]

Looking at the water vapor loop zoomed out it sure looks like the ridge is pushing down on Dorian forcing him almost due west for now.

[Ian2401]

can anyone confirm if this is actually moving faster than forecast

[Blinhart]

The NHC has this moving generally west at this point, if I were to see a wsw dip than I might be concerned
That the models might respond.

300 degree is a big difference to 275-280, and would have a big difference in the long run in the next 12 hours.

If this motion keeps up it will cross 72.8 west in a couple hours. 6 hours ahead of the next forecast point and south.

INIT 31/0300Z 25.5N 71.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 25.9N 72.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 26.6N 76.0W 125 KT 145 MPH

These are the next 3 points they have forecasted, and they will have to decide what to do when they see that Dorian has reached 72.8 a whole 6 or so hours earlier and might not reach 26.6 until much further West unless it decides to turn Due N a lot sooner.

[skillz305]

What implications would it mean if Dorian was really gaining ‘unexpected’ speed? Wouldn’t that mean that a way earlier GFS model was correct by showing Florida will have a Hurricane by Monday AM if I’m not mistaken ??? Someone explain, I’m curious. How normal is it for a Hurricane to take a speedier course west, without knowing it would happen?

[AtlanticWind]

300 degree is a big difference to 275-280, and would have a big difference in the long run in the next 12 hours.

If this motion keeps up it will cross 72.8 west in a couple hours. 6 hours ahead of the next forecast point and south.

INIT 31/0300Z 25.5N 71.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 25.9N 72.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 26.6N 76.0W 125 KT 145 MPH

These are the next 3 points they have forecasted, and they will have to decide what to do when they see that Dorian has reached 72.8 a whole 6 or so hours earlier and might not reach 26.6 until much further West unless it decides to turn Due N a lot sooner.

It is supposed to reach 72.8 at 1200z which is 8AM, looks about right

[senorpepr]

Recon problems summary for today:

According to FlightAware, NOAA G-IV "Gonzo" flys from Lakeland to Savannah, GA early this morning (0634z, 2:34AM EDT), instead of scheduled synoptics missions. Gulfstream is based in Savannah, so emergency repairs??
AF303 takes off from Keesler at 1502z on buoy drop mission, but turns around before Jacksonville and heads back to base.
AF307 has a non-tasked mission with a few sets of minobs starting at 1932z over the northern GOM, heading towards Florida, but that's all the data we see.
NOAA2 "Kermit" takes off from Lakeland at 2043z for invest mission.
At 2059z, according to FlightAware, TEAL77 (I assume that's AF307) took off from Homestead, climbed to 5000 feet, and looped back to land at 2115z.
AF307 takes off from Homestead (again) at 2304z and heads towards Dorian
According to FlightAware, Gonzo takes off from Savannah at 0022z (8:22pm EDT) and flies back to base at Lakeland. Hoping that means it's available for synoptics flights again.
AF307 drops to operational altitude and launches a dropsonde on the NW edge of Dorian at 0048z, then turns around and heads back WSW towards Nassau.
Around 0130z, after two center fixes, Kermit climbs to ~28K feet while heading north away from Dorian, then turns west and launches a bunch of dropsondes on the way back to Lakeland, where it appears to have just landed.
At 0147z, near Dunmore Town, Bahamas, AF307 makes an abrupt turn back to the NNE, flies that way for 40 minutes, then turns WNW and is currently crossing Florida in the general direction of Keesler.

Having fun yet?

307 was likely TEAL 77, but was re-tasked to pick up the buoy mission from 303, which would explain the flight path.

[AutoPenalti]

What implications would it mean if Dorian was really gaining ‘unexpected’ speed? Wouldn’t that mean that a way earlier GFS model was correct by showing Florida will have a Hurricane by Monday AM if I’m not mistaken ??? Someone explain, I’m curious. How normal is it for a Hurricane to take a speedier course west, without knowing it would happen?

Levi mentioned that a faster Dorian means it will be meeting the 250mb ridge a lot earlier which might keep it going West.


Still too far to tell, by tomorrow morning we should know if it’s still moving fast or if it’s moving poleward.

[paintplaye]

What implications would it mean if Dorian was really gaining ‘unexpected’ speed? Wouldn’t that mean that a way earlier GFS model was correct by showing Florida will have a Hurricane by Monday AM if I’m not mistaken ??? Someone explain, I’m curious. How normal is it for a Hurricane to take a speedier course west, without knowing it would happen?

Faster it moves more likely it will move farther west.

[jasons2k]

A faster motion right now would not be good for Florida.