ATL: DORIAN - Models

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chris_fit
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4101 Postby chris_fit » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:01 pm

Such weak steering.... basically this is a stall in the Bahamas like the EURO was showing.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4102 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:01 pm

I swear it's been 96 hours before things happen for 10 days...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4103 Postby beachman80 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:02 pm

Feel the turn coming.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4104 Postby aperson » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:02 pm

18z GFS has a stronger trough sweep in than 12z, but the system stays further S and misses it. Instead of pulling out north it stalls and then resumes a jog into FL. Goes to show that the exit here is thin and 12z Euro was showing a very unstable part of the parameter space with its OTS solutions. Anything is still in play.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4105 Postby norva13x » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:02 pm

Another Melbourne/Cape landfall?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4106 Postby boulderrr » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:02 pm

18Z GFS is quite a bit stronger than 12Z. 12Z showed 956mb... 18Z shows 946mb... Turning NW between hours 96 and 102 hrs.
Last edited by boulderrr on Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4107 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:02 pm

18z GFS hours 90-102:
Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4108 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:02 pm

Looks like it's going to landfall on the Cape
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4109 Postby chris_fit » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:04 pm

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4110 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:04 pm

Landfall Cocoa Beach at 108 hours. Cat 4.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4111 Postby Kat5 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:04 pm

caneman wrote:
Kat5 wrote:
beachman80 wrote:There’s the jump north on the 18z gfs.
Here comes the turn.


At 78 hours is still moving west, but slowed down to a crawl definite sign of a turn coming soon.


That doesnt mean definite. Could be trapped between steering currents


Turns NW/NNW at 102 hours.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4112 Postby beachman80 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:04 pm

Starting to look a lot like the euro just 30 miles more to the west and then it turns.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4113 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:04 pm

That's a landfall. Right over NASA


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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4114 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:04 pm

18z GFS compared to 12z GFS @ hour 108:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4115 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:04 pm

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4116 Postby BobHarlem » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:04 pm

No Florida landfall on the Legacy GFS, stays just east.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4117 Postby MrJames » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:05 pm

Legacy GFS has shifted east as the eye may or may not be on the coast line.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4118 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:05 pm

On the other hand...ICON is wayyy west offshore Tampa at end of the run
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4119 Postby caneman » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:06 pm

Kat5 wrote:
caneman wrote:
Kat5 wrote:
At 78 hours is still moving west, but slowed down to a crawl definite sign of a turn coming soon.


That doesnt mean definite. Could be trapped between steering currents


Turns NW/NNW at 102 hours.


That by no means is a quick turn and if it dips just 50 more miles wsw it's a whole different solution
Last edited by caneman on Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4120 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:06 pm

Some serious Matthew vibes with this one.
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