ATL: BARRY - Models

[sphelps8681]

This is going to be a long night for sure.

[Tireman4]

Long way to go. More flip flops in our future..

[Wx_Warrior]

0z guidance

[TexWx]

Pretty good agreement.

[CrazyC83]

Could the fact the modeled center - still on land and due west of the 12Z/18Z center (near Panama City) have shifted the models to a run through the shallow Gulf?

Regardless, it will be flipping and flopping until an LLC appears.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1148784517781643266

[Steve]

That’s pretty weak by Maue unless he was responding to somebody in a previous chain. If it doesn’t hit, he can ignore it. Or if it does, which would have been my prime target area the last couple days, he can overplay the “win”.

00z NAM 3km dallies around and is intensifying and is a bit south of Morgan city at 60h.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1000&fh=60

12km ends up around Corpus Christi at 84h
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1000&fh=84

[northjaxpro]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1148784517781643266

HWRF did indeed do very well with Harvey 2 years ago and was spot on with Danny 2015 as well..I mentioned this earlier.

[MississippiWx]

The fact that we can single out storms that the HWRF actually did well on is a huge red flag. The HWRF is basically showing the worst-case scenario in terms of strength, not the likely outcome.

[cycloneye]

00z ICON

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'm not going to 100% discount the HWRF solution yet. We're talking about a system that'll have 4 days over the GOMEX, where SSTs are 90F in some areas. I don't think the cap is high enough for a major hurricane, thanks to northerly shear, but I could see this reaching somewhere in the ballpark of 70-80 knots.

[northjaxpro]

The fact that we can single out storms that the HWRF actually did well on is a huge red flag. The HWRF is basically showing the worst-case scenario in terms of strength, not the likely outcome.

The point of the matter is that the HWRF model is not just some thing to mock or ridicule like I have seen some people actually do towards it over the years. The model has made some improvements for the better. It may be only a few instances which it has been right, but also it has shown its solutions can indeed verify and can never be completely discounted..

[MississippiWx]

The fact that we can single out storms that the HWRF actually did well on is a huge red flag. The HWRF is basically showing the worst-case scenario in terms of strength, not the likely outcome.

The point of the matter is that the HWRF model is not just some thing to mock or ridicule like I have seen some people actually do It may be only a few instances which it has been right, but also it has shown its solutions can indeed verify and can never be completed discounted..

Sure, it is technically possible that it will happen. Likely? No. Would it totally surprise me to see a Cat 2-3? Nope. I don't see shear being a huge detriment once the convection gets going strongly. We will see.

[Bolebuns]

The fact that we can single out storms that the HWRF actually did well on is a huge red flag. The HWRF is basically showing the worst-case scenario in terms of strength, not the likely outcome.

The point of the matter is that the HWRF model is not just some thing to mock or ridicule like I have seen some people actually do It may be only a few instances which it has been right, but also it has shown its solutions can indeed verify and can never be completed discounted..

Sure, it is technically possible that it will happen. Likely? No. Would it totally surprise me to see a Cat 2-3? Nope. I don't see shear being a huge detriment once the convection gets going strongly. We will see.

Was Katrina any less surprising?

[1900hurricane]

The fact that we can single out storms that the HWRF actually did well on is a huge red flag. The HWRF is basically showing the worst-case scenario in terms of strength, not the likely outcome.

This is straight from the 2018 NHC verification report. Note that the HWFI is the interpolated HWRF intensity.

An evaluation over the three years 2016-18 (Fig. 11) indicates that the official forecasts
have been consistently performing quite well, but they were outperformed by IVCN and HCCA
from 36 to 96 h, and by FSSE from 24 to 72 h. For this sample, HWFI was the best individual
model at all forecast times, followed by LGEM, GFSI, and DSHP.

Does the HWRF have a pretty notable over-intensification bias prior to an established vortex? Yep, and that probably applies to this current case. However, HWRF is a very good intensity model, and the data backs that up.

[SouthDadeFish]

While the 18Z HWRF solution does appear to be an outlier at this time, it is currently our most accurate dynamical model for TC intensity prediction. If subsequent runs show similar intensification, the solution may be very well be possible.

[northjaxpro]

Likely. Probably not. But always still a chance it could. It's the GOM and that fact alone always give me pause with tropical cyclones..

People just need to stop it with the model mocking. HWRF is a model that gets unfairly scoffed at by some folks imo.

[South Texas Storms]

While the 18Z HWRF solution does appear to be an outlier at this time, it is currently our most accurate dynamical model for TC intensity prediction. If subsequent runs show similar intensification, the solution may be very well be possible.

Well said!

Meanwhile, 0z GFS has shifted a decent amount west through 72 hours so far.

[PTrackerLA]

00z GFS shifts significantly west

[MississippiWx]

Guys, I am not saying it won't happen.

The HWRF is more than likely over-doing it, but it might not be! That's all I'm saying.