ATL: KAREN - Models

[ronjon]

The only model that really shifted its solution was the 12z ICON which now follows Jerry OTS. Have to see if the ECM follows this trend at the 12z run or holds firm. I'm more concerned now with the huge gyre predicted in the western caribbean by the 12z GFS in week two. Its shown this the last several runs.

[sma10]

The only model that really shifted its solution was the 12z ICON which now follows Jerry OTS. Have to see if the ECM follows this trend at the 12z run or holds firm. I'm more concerned now with the huge gyre predicted in the western caribbean by the 12z GFS in week two. Its shown this the last several runs.

Yeah, the elephant in the room is that the ECM has held very firm to this solution several runs in a row with very small relative variance ... you can see the deference shown in the NHC discussion.

And yes, I have been looking at the gyre too.

[tomatkins]

Even the icon has it coming back around. At hour 180 Karen, Jerry, and Lorenzo form a nice triangle in the central Atlantic with the remants of Jerry finally showing signs of moving out, Karen moving slowy southeast and Lorenzo moving due north.

As complicated as the three body problem is for planets, its gotta be even crazier for tropical lows.

[CreponChris]

hello, everybody. I will not make a habit of this but since I got only a few hours of sleep last night and I'm on this terrible device that people call it a tablet, I've been forced to upload the model images I want to share with you today or right now anyway, to a folder on my Google drive. So I got a shareable link for that and if there are any images among the icon 500 millibar vorticity that you're going to see in the folder or the couple of others that I show their related to maximum gust speed feel free to re-upload them yourself somewhere and then set a direct image link from whatever site you want. No problem on my end I am a commercial licensed individual.
https://drive.google.com/folderview?id= ... SuZpX_3Mt0

I'll have to check but if anyone hasn't posted the vmax plot of the EPS for say the last three or four runs please do so if you don't mind. Otherwise I'll grab them from Albany for you guys when I get back in a little bit. looks like it's strengthened on the euro in general its track his going south / Florida rather than relatively close to say Orlando and so on like it was yesterday.
Best,
C. Norman Crepon

[LarryWx]

Even the icon has it coming back around. At hour 180 Karen, Jerry, and Lorenzo form a nice triangle in the central Atlantic with the remants of Jerry finally showing signs of moving out, Karen moving slowy southeast and Lorenzo moving due north.

As complicated as the three body problem is for planets, its gotta be even crazier for tropical lows.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2019092312/icon_mslp_wind_atl_61.png

If the 180 of the 12Z ICON were to verify, I'd then bet heavily that Karen wouldn't even get close to the CONUS as the ridge would be too far west to capture her.

Meanwhile, the GEFS continues to have pretty much no more than weak sfc reflections of Karen though it appears most members move west.

[sma10]

12Z HWRF now seems to have a better grasp on the ridging. Significantly further South and on a more westerly heading at 96hrs

[tolakram]

Everyone please stick to discussing models, it will make the things go a lot better here. Making statements that have no basis in reality, or guesses, is not what this thread is about. There's a discussion thread for Karen where much of this belongs.


Here's the vorticity plot of the 12Z GFS. You ca see it keeps this a wave but follows generally the same path as the Euro.

[chris_fit]

12Z EURO running

[chris_fit]

[rbaker55]

The only model that really shifted its solution was the 12z ICON which now follows Jerry OTS. Have to see if the ECM follows this trend at the 12z run or holds firm. I'm more concerned now with the huge gyre predicted in the western caribbean by the 12z GFS in week two. Its shown this the last several runs.

Yeah, the elephant in the room is that the ECM has held very firm to this solution several runs in a row with very small relative variance ... you can see the deference shown in the NHC discussion.

And yes, I have been looking at the gyre too.

more times then not, the NHC puts heavy weight on the Euro for good reason.

[NDG]

Haven’t we learned that the ICON is not a very reliable model after it busted with Dorian’s track?

12z UKMET and HWRF shifted to the left, so the ICON is pretty much by itself.

[chris_fit]

[ronjon]

Haven’t we learned that the ICON is not a very reliable model after it busted with Dorian’s track?

12z UKMET and HWRF shifted to the left, so the ICON is pretty much by itself.

Yes and ICON flip flopped from its 00z run which mimicked the ECM. Although I think ICON was the first to the station on Humberto's OTS solution (hit and miss).

[ava_ati]

looks like a slower Jerry keeps a weakness in the SE ridge a little longer on the 12z Euro run, might see it get a little further north before the turn west this time

[sma10]

looks like a slower Jerry keeps a weakness in the SE ridge a little longer on the 12z Euro run, might see it get a little further north before the turn west this time

Wow they get really close together. Will Karen get trapped this run?

[chris_fit]

[Kazmit]

The 12z Euro bends it to the NNE.

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro 175 miles ENE of the 0Z at hour 96. She's stopped here and drifting S at hour 102.

[chris_fit]

[sma10]

12Z Euro 175 miles ENE of the 0Z at hour 96

Yeah I think Jerry allows her to escape, on a knife's edge