ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[plasticup]

I received more information about yesterday's recon mission. TEAL 77 had a cracked windshield. They returned to base. 307 then attempted a fix mission into Dorian, but cracked another windshield. So they aborted the fix mission and just completed the buoy drop.

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Yikes. Is that common? Glad they are safe.

[senorpepr]

Interesting, thanks for sharing. What could have cracked the windshield in both of them?

Hard to say, but likely fatigue. Bad luck to have it happen to two different aircraft on the same day.


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[senorpepr]

Yikes. Is that common? Glad they are safe.

I wouldn't say it's common, but it's not rare either.



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[plasticup]

CDO is bulking up on the west side again. This is the best he has ever looked.

[Emmett_Brown]

It seems like a while since a storm has generated so many short term track forecast errors. This feels like 1990's tracking. Going E of PR the other day was a good example of how even 24 hour forecasts are not certain.

[Airboy]

The dark time is over, recon data and visilbles coming in.

[plasticup]

The dark time is over, recon data and visilbles coming in.

Latest few frames of IR show cloud tops rapidly cooling to -70. If that trend continues, when recon arrives in an hour I think they'll find a high 4/low 5.

[AdamFirst]

AJC3 mentioned in the models thread that there wasn't a sounding mission yesterday. Are we getting any of those?

[NDG]

Wow, Dorian remains very strong!!!!!!
144.9 mph winds by SFMR


105200 2549N 07238W 6970 02739 9542 +137 +133 172099 118 126 016 00
105230 2550N 07236W 6920 02907 9670 +112 //// 165127 131 122 032 05

[Airboy]

Extrap. Sfc. Press: 939.8 mb (27.76 inHg)

[Kazmit]

Sub-940!

[plasticup]

AJC3 mentioned in the models thread that there wasn't a sounding mission yesterday. Are we getting any of those?

That feels like it would be more useful than another recon wind speed/position fix

[Airboy]

Wow, Dorian remains very strong!!!!!!
144.9 mph winds by SFMR


105200 2549N 07238W 6970 02739 9542 +137 +133 172099 118 126 016 00
105230 2550N 07236W 6920 02907 9670 +112 //// 165127 131 122 032 05

The NE wind field look mean.

[northjaxpro]

Sub-940!

It looks like it.apparently.

[xironman]

Looks to be about due west of the 5am position

[NDG]

Sub-940!

That's extrap, I don't think is that low yet, lets see what the dropsonde shows.

[Airboy]

944 from dropsonde.
944mb (27.88 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 27.2°C (81.0°F) 25.9°C (79°F) 135° (from the SE) 5 knots (6 mph)

[plasticup]

944 from dropsonde.
944mb (27.88 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 27.2°C (81.0°F) 25.9°C (79°F) 135° (from the SE) 5 knots (6 mph)

Still an absolute monster. And with the environment ahead I think sub-940 is likely.

[NDG]

16 hr sat loop, not quiet due west heading over all.

[Nimbus]

Dark infra reds on the western side of the circulation indicate strengthening so 10 mb's down from 951 isn't unreasonable. Should be starting its WNW wobble soon.