ATL: DORIAN - Models

[NDG]

Majority of 18z GFS ensembles still over FL.

[WeatherEmperor]

Anyone have the 18z Euro?

I would like to know as well. Usually Aric provides this. Aric, if you see our post can you provide details for the 18z Euro?

[Frank P]

HWRF h99 to h102 appears to be on a WNW heading

[Kazmit]

Wow everyone’s jumping aboard the Curve Train now.

Yep seems like most of Florida is in the clear, as I predicted yesterday. I am not even too worried about this thing up in my neck of the woods (South Carolina), the Bahamas are my concern at the moment, but there is a chance even they are spared.

No. No one is "spared" for sure. The models could just as easily trend back west, and even if they don't, it's quite likely the Carolinas will be impacted instead. No one can let their guard down until this thing has either dissipated, or is speeding out to sea.

[psyclone]

Wow everyone’s jumping aboard the Curve Train now.

Yep seems like most of Florida is in the clear, as I predicted yesterday. I am not even too worried about this thing up in my neck of the woods (South Carolina), the Bahamas are my concern at the moment, but there is a chance even they are spared.

Risk reduction (especially from a high risk baseline) does not = in the clear. the weather isn't black or white...it is shades of probabilities.

[La Sirena]

Wow everyone’s jumping aboard the Curve Train now.

Yep seems like most of Florida is in the clear, as I predicted yesterday. I am not even too worried about this thing up in my neck of the woods (South Carolina), the Bahamas are my concern at the moment, but there is a chance even they are spared.

4 days out seems a bit presumptive and reckless to announce the all clear.

[AutoPenalti]

Majority of 18z GFS ensembles still over FL.

I don’t know how much I’d follow it considering it uses the legacy core.

[Frank P]

H105 half the eye on the coast nnw of the cape

[TheStormExpert]

Majority of 18z GFS ensembles still over FL.

Most don't go far inland like the 12z GEFS.

[BobHarlem]

18z HWRF Landfall New Smyrna Beach Late Tuesday night. HMON never makes US landfall (run stops before it would)

[Blinhart]

Wow everyone’s jumping aboard the Curve Train now.

Yep seems like most of Florida is in the clear, as I predicted yesterday. I am not even too worried about this thing up in my neck of the woods (South Carolina), the Bahamas are my concern at the moment, but there is a chance even they are spared.

Now do you have anything to back this up???

[caneseddy]

No one is off the hook yet..this is only one model run and once we get the dropsondes tonight it may change the models and bring them south

One thing these latest runs are showing is that Dorian takes a WSW/SW dip around Grand Bahama..how far is the dip and will it actually take the dip? Who knows but no one should sound the all clear

[Frank P]

Eye inland at h108...

[Aric Dunn]

18z euro no west turn yet. 48 hours..

[WeatherEmperor]

18z euro no west turn yet. 48 hours..

Thank you for posting Aric. Please give us further updates on it....and if possible....some approximate coordinates as well

[supercane4867]

HWRF direct hit on Jacksonville

[Aric Dunn]

finally west at 51 hrs

[supercane4867]

HMON looks like it's trying to make landfall on SC or NC after end of the run. Doesn't look like a complete OTS curve

[TheStormExpert]

finally west at 51 hrs

Hows this compare to the 12z run?

[Blown Away]

HWRF h99 to h102 appears to be on a WNW heading

Rare for a storm to be moving towards Florida WNW north of 28N and W of 80W... Model either moving towards a recurve scenerio towards Carolinas/OTS or ridge will be stronger and go west farther south... JMHO