ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kat5]

Recon is showing a more WNW motion.

[Smurfwicked]

Appears to be moving due west to me. Is it accurate to say NHC Forecast track and models looked to show a more WNW component than what has actually been occurring with the movement overnight and early this morning? While it doesn't look like its going to be south of forecast points much it still looks like its going to be south of those points at least in the near term.

Just an observation by an untrained eye of course!

[Jr0d]

Not to discount the model shift.

As someone post before, John Hope would say follow the cirrus clouds because the storm will follow. Those cirrus clouds are going to S\CFL.

[gatorcane]

On satellite it looks due west along 26N

[SouthDadeFish]

No concentric eyewall but the western side looks weak, windshear?

https://i.imgur.com/GfDsHf3.jpg

Looks like either light shear just below anvil level or possibly a pocket of upper level subsidence right on the NW fringe from ridging.

I would guess some shear out of the NW from the ~250-mb ridge that is observed to the NW of the Dorian.

[Visioen]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1167778380227502080

That's insane.

If I were a religious man I would say prayers for the Bahamas.

My thoughts are with you though.

Not that it will stop the water.

[Carolinagirl18]

Not to discount the model shift.

As someone post before, John Hope would say follow the cirrus clouds because the storm will follow. Those cirrus clouds are going to S\CFL.

John Hope was a wise man.

[Jr0d]

Who remembers when John Hope used to say on TWC that the flow of the high cirrus clouds was a sign to follow of where the Hurricane was headed? So true!

Definitely something to keep in mind after a wild model shift.

[gatorcane]

I wonder why a strong Dorian (which would be influenced more my 300MB steering) wouldn’t get pushed more west into South or Central Florida with that ULL over Cuba forcing it west?

I know there are other steering levels in play here but you wonder if that ULL may have more influence than models think right now?

[Jr0d]

I wonder why a strong Dorian wouldn’t get pushed more west into South or Central Florida with that ULL over Cuba forcing it west?

I know there are other steering levels in play here but you wonder if that ULL may have more influence than models think right now?

https://i.postimg.cc/kXQ7pYZy/goes16-wv-mid-watl-201908311235.jpg

Especially if the models underestimated the strength of the ULL.

[KWT]

On satellite it looks due west along 26N

Last hour is nearly due west as you say, and longer term motion is now probably around 280 or so. It matches closely what the 06z ECM suggested which was a probable hit on the northern Bahamas islands.

I think odds of missing the Bahamas is quite slim at the moment, going to really have to start lifting up WNW in the next few hours.

[johngaltfla]

I wonder why a strong Dorian (which would be influenced more my 300MB steering) wouldn’t get pushed more west into South or Central Florida with that ULL over Cuba forcing it west?

I know there are other steering levels in play here but you wonder if that ULL may have more influence than models think right now?

https://i.postimg.cc/kXQ7pYZy/goes16-wv-mid-watl-201908311235.jpg

I think we are still 24 hours away from any definitive forecast beyond Tuesday. So I'm still doing my preps just in case Dorian decides it wants to top the 1926 storm.

[jlauderdal]

Appears to be moving due west to me. Is it accurate to say NHC Forecast track and models looked to show a more WNW component than what has actually been occurring with the movement overnight and early this morning? While it doesn't look like its going to be south of forecast points much it still looks like its going to be south of those points at least in the near term.

Just an observation by an untrained eye of course!

a little to south is a huge deal on the trajectory, stay tuned

[Ian2401]

are we getting upper level reconnaissance today? i know many said the ridge is being under represented

[supercane4867]

[NDG]

According to recon the latest position is at approximately 25.87N & 73.09W to be exact.

[gatorcane]

On satellite it looks due west along 26N

Last hour is nearly due west as you say, and longer term motion is now probably around 280 or so. It matches closely what the 06z ECM suggested which was a probable hit on the northern Bahamas islands.

I think odds of missing the Bahamas is quite slim at the moment, going to really have to start lifting up WNW in the next few hours.

The HWRF has it moving WNW so seems that model is already not correct.

[decgirl66]

How far off the coast of Florida would this be with the current forecast? Also, I may have missed it in all these pages, but how wide is Dorian now?

[NDG]

I hope this is not right, 141 knots by SMFR was not flagged.

132400 2601N 07303W 6986 02791 9687 +084 +018 125127 131 141 052 00
132430 2600N 07304W 6966 02736 9577 +110 +020 122098 127 144 024 03

[Airboy]

Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 131 kts (150.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 141 kts (162.3 mph)