ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

SFMR winds into CAT5 territory?

[MGC]

Long term motion looks towards the west. Might have a bit of a tricordial wobble though.....MGC

[1900hurricane]

Looks like we may have a Matthew '16/Jose '17 type of case here.

[KWT]

According to recon the latest position is at approximately 25.87N & 73.09W to be exact.

Yeah still below 26N at the moment, will be interesting to see how much longer that lasts, probably only one big convective blow up on the northern side to shove it north of that line, but its certainly clinging more stubbornly than the 00z models suggested this morning.

[wjs3]

https://i.imgur.com/Vu9YjhO.jpg

huh. Outflow boundaries to the north. That's new. Maybe a touch of drier air there?

[CFLHurricane]

SFMR winds into CAT5 territory?

Looks like it. CAT5 @ 11AM?

[melhow]

Who remembers when John Hope used to say on TWC that the flow of the high cirrus clouds was a sign to follow of where the Hurricane was headed? So true!

Definitely something to keep in mind after a wild model shift.

I think you can see this with Hurricane Matthew? I watched a few times and the theory seemed to hold true, at least with that storm. I tried to see if I could see the effect with Irma footage, but that storm was just so dang BIG, I couldn’t tell what I was looking at. It would be interesting to see if anyone could find the effect with Irma, though, just because the three day forecast swung so much with her.

https://youtu.be/HPALhC_OtXk

[GCANE]

Extrap 942.6mb

[Jr0d]

If Dorians holds steady or picks up speed while going west or WWNW the rest of the day, I think the NHC will be forced to put up watches along Florida's east coast.

[gfsperpendicular]

If the SFMR is higher than the FL winds, they'll discard it. So I don't think a cat 5 is coming at 11am (if I'm reading the data right lol)

[supercane4867]

SFMR winds into CAT5 territory?

Looks like it. CAT5 @ 11AM?

I still think 130kts. SFMR measurements are considered to be somewhat inflated.

[SouthDadeFish]

I think what happens in the tropical cyclone boundary layer (region near the ocean surface where friction can do some weird things) is not well understood in these small, but intense storms. We seemingly now have many cases where the typical flight-level wind reduction doesn't match SFMR observations. Dropsondes over the last 12 hours suggest it's not impossible some category-5 strength winds could be mixing down to the surface.

[Highteeld]

141 knots unflagged sfmr

[TallyTracker]

That is certainly a beautiful storm on satellite! I wish it would stay away from land so we could enjoy it from a safe distance.

[SunnyThoughts]

141 knots unflagged sfmr

Geeze, whats that 160 mph?

[tropicwatch]

I think what happens in the tropical cyclone boundary layer (region near the ocean surface where friction can do some weird things) is not well understood in these small, but intense storms. We seemingly now have many cases where the typical flight-level wind reduction doesn't match SFMR observations. Dropsondes over the last 12 hours suggest it's not impossible some category-5 strength winds could be mixing down to the surface.

Yeah several readings have been like that now.

[supercane4867]

Probably not a CAT5 yet but I think satellite presentation is almost there

[Hypercane_Kyle]

CDO looking significantly more symmetrical over the last few hours.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

JEEZ

SFMR
141 knots
(~ 162.3 mph)

There was another (flagged) Cat 5 reading below it. I'd say 135 knots at 11am.

[Portastorm]

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Carry on ... the topic is Dorian.