ATL: DORIAN - Models

[La Sirena]

Let’s steer away from NAM and ICON and back towards more helpful tools. Not that they aren’t worth discussion.

Well, it is the Model thread...it all helps in the end.

[AutoPenalti]

Let’s steer away from NAM and ICON and back towards more helpful tools. Not that they aren’t worth discussion.

No, it’s the models thread. ICON and NAM are models...

[HurricaneFrances04]

Looks like no SW jog on the ICON, although the faster track brings it inland.

[Tertius]

00Z ICON looks to make landfall just south of Port St Lucie at hour 63, looks to me. Serious slowdown right as it approaches the coast as well.

[Bocadude85]

ICON with landfall around Jupiter, faster then 18z.

[Hurricaneman]

The thing is it seems that north of Dorian wasn’t sampled which in turn might make the models inaccurate due to gaps in data

[NDG]

The most important take away from the latest ICON is that it is finally giving up on its idea of landfall in Dade County and is trending towards the GFS and Euro. That model may not be so good after all, I guess it got lucky when it forecasted Dorian to miss P.R.

[BobHarlem]

0z ICON Landfall north of 18z, and faster, between Jupiter and Stuart this time instead of Boca. Also no SW dive. Early Monday Afternoon on 0z, late Monday night on 18z.


It then rides up toward Central Florida by Tuesday night. Doesn't look to go into the Gulf this time.

[galaxy401]

ICON stalls Dorian right after landfall, which is something no one wants.

[cjrciadt]

Right over me at around 96hrs

[sma10]

Landfall near Jupiter, then takes 21 hours to make it to the northern tip of lake okee

[La Sirena]

The most important take away from the latest ICON is that it is finally giving up on its idea of landfall in Dade County and is trending towards the GFS and Euro. That model may not be so good after all, I guess it got lucky when it forecasted Dorian to miss P.R.

Isn’t that what everyone said when it forecast missing P.R.? Hindsight is the only absolute way of knowing which models got it right and which ones were “lucky”.

[Blown Away]

00z NAM

[birddogsc]

The most important take away from the latest ICON is that it is finally giving up on its idea of landfall in Dade County and is trending towards the GFS and Euro. That model may not be so good after all, I guess it got lucky when it forecasted Dorian to miss P.R.

Jupiter to Dade is what 50 miles? Not a huge variation over three days of track.

[lando]

The most important take away from the latest ICON is that it is finally giving up on its idea of landfall in Dade County and is trending towards the GFS and Euro. That model may not be so good after all, I guess it got lucky when it forecasted Dorian to miss P.R.

Jupiter to Dade is what 50 miles? Not a huge variation over three days of track.

Maybe closer to 100

[Taxman]

Could somebody tell me exactly what is causing the erosion of the western portion of the ridge in the dorian models?

[smithtim]

Matthew?

More like Frances if I have to pick one. Just maybe further east

Frances entered Florida around Brevard county and moved northwest across the entire state, exiting into the GOM. Are you sure you meant Frances?

Few countries further south, it was about halfway between Ft Pierce & Stuart on Hutchinson Island... trust me I know as was working at the college in Ft Pierce back then when was in my doctorate.

And, I think we're all hoping Dorian in Floyd redo... when storms grow above 4 they kinda create their own weather environment and not so subjected to expected steering current. E.G., why the models initial blocked the turn with that ridge, but now I think a poleward turn is very probable. At least for those of us living Florida barrier island that's what we're hoping for, just keep front right offshore!!!

[StPeteMike]

$10 says we will see the WSW jog on the models in the morning haha

[sbcc]

Could somebody tell me exactly what is causing the erosion of the western portion of the ridge in the dorian models?

I think your answer is here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2766538#p2766538

[caneseddy]

The most important take away from the latest ICON is that it is finally giving up on its idea of landfall in Dade County and is trending towards the GFS and Euro. That model may not be so good after all, I guess it got lucky when it forecasted Dorian to miss P.R.

Jupiter to Dade is what 50 miles? Not a huge variation over three days of track.

Maybe closer to 100

88 miles to be exact