ATL: KAREN - Models

[toad strangler]

12z Euro looking more like the recent OTS CMC runs. Next panel will tell for sure at 120 hrs

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro 175 miles ENE of the 0Z at hour 96

Yeah I think Jerry allows her to escape, on a knife's edge

She's hardly moved hours 90-114 and may be about to move west. But likely too far east to come back. At 114, she's like 250 miles ENE of the 0Z.

[chris_fit]

Moves SW -

[chris_fit]

Ridge strong above her

[toad strangler]

120 hrs Karen barely misses weakness the door closes and gets trapped

[ava_ati]

It gets caught!... Sure hope that doesn't mean it picks up Lorenzo on the way east

[sma10]

120 hrs Karen barely misses and gets trapped

Yeesh this is clooooose. Even the best model in the world cannot be this precise. And the ramifications are so huge

[Blown Away]

Euro 12z after 120 hrs gonna fly west or WSW...

[sma10]

12Z Euro 175 miles ENE of the 0Z at hour 96

Yeah I think Jerry allows her to escape, on a knife's edge

She's hardly moved hours 90-114 and may be about to move west. But likely too far east to come back. At 114, she's like 250 miles ENE of the 0Z.

Normally yes, but you're talking about a ridge strong enough at 0Z to push her straight west from Bermuda's longitude to Mexico

[ava_ati]

120 hrs Karen barely misses and gets trapped

Yeesh this is clooooose. Even the best model in the world cannot be this precise. And the ramifications are so huge

Look closer, Jerry gets caught too, it is just too weak to matter

[toad strangler]

120 hrs Karen barely misses and gets trapped

Yeesh this is clooooose. Even the best model in the world cannot be this precise. And the ramifications are so huge

Look closer, Jerry gets caught too, it is just too weak to matter

Yes, vort map shows it well

[chris_fit]

Chugging along WSW

[sma10]

So Karen is caught and sent back, but I'm guessing isn't tucked under the ridge properly and getting sheared

[toad strangler]

Shooting West and weaker at 144. GFS like

[ava_ati]

Yeesh this is clooooose. Even the best model in the world cannot be this precise. And the ramifications are so huge

Look closer, Jerry gets caught too, it is just too weak to matter

Yes, vort map shows it well

It also has huge ramifications for Lorenzo, if Jerry and Karen get caught, I don't see how Lorenzo makes it without getting caught

[SFLcane]

Euro much weaker trending towards the GFS here it seems we shall see

[chris_fit]

This is like Jeanne from 2004 just a little further E with the loop

[toad strangler]

Whatever is left of Karen could plow right into Cuba the way 500mb looks

[chris_fit]

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro: At 168, she's 400 miles east of the 0Z 180 but moving steadily westward although much weaker. Will she still come all the way back on this run? She may because the ridge is getting reinforced.