ATL: DORIAN - Models

[MetroMike]

There are so many moving parts here. One unexpected stall or a nudge south or north can change all the dynamics and have a domino effect down stream.

[MrJames]

UKM in blue...

[emeraldislenc]

What part of the Carolinas does it hit?

[Ritzcraker]

It's strange that the models haven't picked up on the W motion that has been going for hours. They're missing something.

It's not moving due west. It's still got a small northern component to it. All the models have shown this.

I think the GFS is just reacting to what everyone is seeing. It's not a bad run. It's just following the trend.

If you go look in the Discussion thread there are a lot of trained eyes that agree it’s heading due west...

[beachman80]

UKM in blue...

https://i.imgur.com/xBxsRvh.gif

Wow, 24 hours ago the UKMET was in the Gulf of Mexico. Now it's not even sniffing Florida.

Florida looking better and better by the hour. Phew.

[WeatherEmperor]

Both GFS models hit the Carolinas. Smh, we do not need that. Let the out to sea stuff pan out please.

Allow the Ukmet to help you feel better about it not affecting you in the Carolina’s either. Ukmet shifts way east missing the US all together




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[JtSmarts]

What part of the Carolinas does it hit?

New GFS basically parallels the SC coast and looks like it comes ashore just below the SC/NC border and moves along Eastern NC coast.

[MrJames]

[beachman80]

It's strange that the models haven't picked up on the W motion that has been going for hours. They're missing something.

It's not moving due west. It's still got a small northern component to it. All the models have shown this.

I think the GFS is just reacting to what everyone is seeing. It's not a bad run. It's just following the trend.

If you go look in the Discussion thread there are a lot of trained eyes that agree it’s heading due west...

I just put a rule on it. It is moving slightly north of due west. And like I said, many of the models had predicted this so this is nothing new.

[Blown Away]

All models & NHC track may be completely off the Florida coast by tomorrow...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Also moving away from stalling over Freeport for days on end... that'd be a calamity.

[smithtim]

Well these runs will all be out the door if Dorian continues this west motion.. its very apparent the last hour or so it has begun accelerating west.. paralleling south of the 26N line.

will it continue ?

Very true brah... IMHO pretty much now in wait & see mode... logic tells me turn poleward, but until we see that actually occur nobody should be letting there guard down. I'm gonna be watching that satellite hoping to see him turning away from FLa

[Ritzcraker]

Someone needs to sound the alarm and put a stop to all this “all clear” nonsense. Give it AT LEAST another day before parts of Florida can start to breathe relief.

[Meteorcane]

That initial shortwave which approaches late Saturday (but more so Sunday) and begins to weaken the ST ridge is going to be interesting. It will also likely spawn some convection over the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic ahead of it on Sunday which can further complicate things (as sometimes these Shortwaves can be enhanced by convection). Very tough scenario, because how fast the western periphery of the ridge erodes will have big impacts on the Bahamas and Florida.

[NFLnut]

Where are ya'll seeing the GFS? TropicalTidbits still only has the 18z.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It's not moving due west. It's still got a small northern component to it. All the models have shown this.

I think the GFS is just reacting to what everyone is seeing. It's not a bad run. It's just following the trend.

If you go look in the Discussion thread there are a lot of trained eyes that agree it’s heading due west...

I just put a rule on it. It is moving slightly north of due west. And like I said, many of the models had predicted this so this is nothing new.

You really are not going to be able to tell with one single loop. Storms of this intensity wobble quite a bit...as much as a north component you might see now could just as easily be a wobble south in an hour. You need several hours of frames to determine direction.

[Blown Away]

Cat 4 over my house this morning to I’m likely to enjoy my Labor Day weekend... I’ll keep an eye on it, but theses models aren’t bouncing back...

[TheProfessor]

It's definitely getting hard to ignore the eastward trends on the models from the past day. The Euro, GFS, and Ukmet are all east and 9 times out of 10 when that happens there's a decent chance they're correct. I do want to see how Dorian acts these next 12-18 hours and how far north he gets before I totally buy into this solution. That said, all of Florida should still be preparing for impacts until Dorian is north of you.

[icallstorms]

What part of the Carolinas does it hit?

We are not fully sure of some areas that could be affected.

[BobHarlem]

0z CMC Also stays east of Florida this run.