ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[seahawkjd]

Good news from the recon front... Gonzo (G-IV) is taxiing for take off!!

Yes!!! Great news!

Hopefully they reinforced the windshield since this storm is evidently the bane of airplane windshields.

[Kat5]

Good news from the recon front... Gonzo (G-IV) is taxiing for take off!!

Probably dumb question... is Gonzo the plane that will take readings of the the ridge strength?

Yep.

[sponger]

Good news from the recon front... Gonzo (G-IV) is taxiing for take off!!

Probably dumb question... is Gonzo the plane that will take readings of the the ridge strength?

Correct and its orientation.

[BrandonJay21]

Good news from the recon front... Gonzo (G-IV) is taxiing for take off!!

Probably dumb question... is Gonzo the plane that will take readings of the the ridge strength?

Correct and its orientation.

Thank you Sponger and Kat! Definitely needed.

[CrazyC83]

I know the SFMR needs research to see how it responds in category 4 and 5 storms. For that reason, I'd probably keep it at 130 kt for now. I'd want to see flight-level winds in the 145-150 range to have more confidence.

[Jr0d]

Good news from the recon front... Gonzo (G-IV) is taxiing for take off!!

Hopefully when we wake up tomorrow the models will digest the information and get a better picture of the forecast path.

At least with the east shift in the models my fellow Florida residents can enjoy their holiday Saturday a little better. Hopefully no surprises tomorrow!

[Guadua]

I love to use the MIMIC-TPW ver.2 for keeping an eye on blobs of moisture, so I know when we have the best chance of rain in my area. Its current flow is concerning. I used the green to show the western movement of moisture into Florida and the low over Cuba that is giving it a slight nudge to the north. Looking at that flow. I would say Dorian has a very good chance of making landfall from West Palm Beach to Cape Canaveral.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[Kat5]

Looking at the WV loop, looks as if the shortwave trough might be coming in a little more sooner than predicted. IMO

[Ian2401]

Looking at the WV loop, looks as if the shortwave trough might be coming in a little more sooner than predicted. IMO

how does that affect track?

[GCANE]

CIMSS is showing a dramatic breakdown of the ULL and Adiabatic Ridge in the last 3 hrs.
Streering streamlines over Dorian are now pointing slightly south of due west.
This may take hold later today. A lot of variables in play.

[NDG]

I know the SFMR needs research to see how it responds in category 4 and 5 storms. For that reason, I'd probably keep it at 130 kt for now. I'd want to see flight-level winds in the 145-150 range to have more confidence.

Don't forget that they dismissed a lot of those SFMR readings with Michael that called for a Cat 5 just before landfall to later upgrade it to a Cat 5

[Patrick99]

Then again the plane will be taking readings based on now right? So at best when that info is incorporated later tonight we’re still looking back in time rather than getting a picture of what the atmosphere is doing at the moment. I mean I know it’s all we have, but pretty far from perfect!

[galaxy401]

I know the SFMR needs research to see how it responds in category 4 and 5 storms. For that reason, I'd probably keep it at 130 kt for now. I'd want to see flight-level winds in the 145-150 range to have more confidence.

Don't forget that they dismissed a lot of those SFMR readings with Michael that called for a Cat 5 just before landfall to later upgrade it to a Cat 5

If I recall, Michael did have flight level winds around 150 right before landfall so that supported Michael's case.

[Kat5]

Looking at the WV loop, looks as if the shortwave trough might be coming in a little more sooner than predicted. IMO

how does that affect track?

Might erode the ridge way sooner.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looking at IR, Dorian's cloudtops are beginning to cool again, especially in the northern half of the CDO. I may be wrong about this part, but it looks to me like there might be some evidence of concentric eyewalls as well. Think Dorian may be trying to give Cat 5 a final shot before undergoing an EWRC. Are there any recent microwave images available?

[flamingosun]

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 73.9W
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM E OF GREAT ABACO IN THE BAHAMAS
ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

[BYG Jacob]

I know the SFMR needs research to see how it responds in category 4 and 5 storms. For that reason, I'd probably keep it at 130 kt for now. I'd want to see flight-level winds in the 145-150 range to have more confidence.

My question is, if you don’t trust something why use it?

[GCANE]

Gonzo's Flight Schedule

[senorpepr]

I know the SFMR needs research to see how it responds in category 4 and 5 storms. For that reason, I'd probably keep it at 130 kt for now. I'd want to see flight-level winds in the 145-150 range to have more confidence.

My question is, if you don’t trust something why use it?

It's pretty accurate in most cases, except in extreme events where there needs more testing.

[Sanibel]

TWC said the hunters found a 161mph sustained wind...