ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jaxfladude]

Hello and prayers. How is everyone? Okay what's the bad and good news concerning Dorian and the Bahamas and Florida?

[psyclone]

recognizing that we still have many chapters in the Dorian book...to me the very interesting thing that preceded the risk reduction to FL was the repeated slowdowns in the track where the 5 day endpoint just refused to cross the state. while this was happening plenty of folks were focusing on individual apocalyptic model runs. But to me the slowdowns = greater uncertainty with competing steering currents and a rising potential of a reduced threat to the state before that actually started being reflected in later forecasts. every storm, even a near miss, yields lessons for the future and this event (recognizing it is still in progress) will hang with me going forward. It's also a reminder of how important probabilities are in weather. Tampa's ts wind probs were 78% yesterday and now they're 35%, a dramatic reduction but not 0, they seem likely to continue falling but only a fool would ignore a storm this powerful this close. I really hope people become more adept at probabilities going forward. So many people speak in absolutes...we gonna get creamed or we're "off the hook" when the reality is often far more nuanced. a threat could go up in a given area but remain low overall...conversely a threat could go down in an area but remain elevated. trends are vital but so is the baseline from which they're operating. Absent context (one without the other) the data is of no value but people judge and act on incomplete data with distressing frequency.

[senorpepr]

TWC said the hunters found a 161mph sustained wind...

Yes, but it was flagged as questionable.

[Blinhart]

TWC said the hunters found a 161mph sustained wind...

Yes, but it was flagged as questionable.

It was not flagged, but it was questionable because it was so much stronger than Flight Level Winds.

[Shell Mound]

A possible analog for the remainder of DORIAN's path is HELENE (1958), especially beyond the Bahamas:


Source: Wikipedia article

Initially, DORIAN will be farther south and impact the northern Bahamas, but the subsequent path may be similar.

[senorpepr]

TWC said the hunters found a 161mph sustained wind...

Yes, but it was flagged as questionable.

It was not flagged, but it was questionable because it was so much stronger than Flight Level Winds.

A lot of them were flagged. Granted, if they keep being flagged yet reaching 140 kt... is there some truth to it??? Possibly.

[Sanibel]

I would disregard it because the pressure is a little high for category 5...

[BYG Jacob]

A possible analog for the remainder of DORIAN's path is HELENE (1958), especially beyond the Bahamas:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f8/Helene_1958_track.png/440px-Helene_1958_track.png
Source: Wikipedia article

Initially, DORIAN will be farther south and impact the northern Bahamas, but the subsequent path may be similar.

That would put Dorian into Duval, or very close to it it.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Bahamas Radar - http://smartmet.bahamasweather.org.bs/radarcomposite/

Dorian should become visible tonight.

[skillz305]

So what’s the deal? If the Gonzo plane doing data on the ridge shows any stronger ridge, are they gonna be forced to shift the cone west again? Since Dorian is moving due west at the moment . Thanks.

[Ian2401]

So what’s the deal? If the Gonzo plane doing data on the ridge shows any stronger ridge, are they gonna be forced to shift the cone west again? Since Dorian is moving due west at the moment . Thanks.

the data about the ridge and the surrounding environment will be inputted into the upcoming model runs and they will do with it what they do with it.
so, maybe

[CryHavoc]

Hello to all members of Storm2K,
Let me start things off firstly by apologizing for this post/thread interruption. My name is Christopher and I’m a storm/rescue responder in Galveston, Texas. I personally rescued 181 people from Dickinson to Cypress Texas during Hurricane Harvey. 7 days out in pure hell, constantly soaked. For me as a board lurker this is something that has to be said and now is this moment.
1. Everyone on here needs to 100% understand that there are outsiders lurking and reading information here to sadly use said info to make their “leave or stay” and “prep or not to prep” decisions. I personally know that this practice is not ethical but it is happening as we speak, everyday-every year. There seems to be an understanding that this is a board of nothing but scientists and pro meteorologists. So keep that in mind as to how a big portion of people see this board.
2. There is a specific board for “storm model” talk and a specific for “storm non-model discussion”, and you all need to keep it as it was intended. Please stay on topic.
3. Never ever say anyone is “in the clear” at any time, unless you you work for the NHC you do not have that authority. You have to understand that one person may come here and base your one lousy statement as fact and not look at another post and carry on in life, but yet that individual goes and tells others what he or she read. This is not acceptable verbiage. There truly are people in lower Florida as we speak that really are trying to return “Emergency Supplies” that they bought three days ago based on what they erroneously ready from yesterday here. This is extremely concerning.
4. Said “rogue” statements make my job as a storm/emergency first responder very difficult. If an evacuation is ordered for a particular area I need as many as possible to leave said area. Even if I’m the end nothing transpired in said areas. I’ve heard it way too often that a family decided to ride a storm out at last minute and then got trapped and had to be rescued based off an internet board posting. But to learn this statement as I’m standing in 5 feet of septic waters in a flooded neighborhood rescuing families I get very upset at this trend. I have not built my mind and body and reinforced my rescue vehicle and spent thousands on safety gear and medical supplies and food to constantly hear these sickening comments.
5. I appreciate every poster on here wether you add something big or small to the conversation, know it’s appreciated as long as it’s valid speech.
6. To me as a first responder, anyone from North Carolina to Brownsville Texas needs to have one eye open on this current storm and always seek professional information from your local authorities and the NHC when making prep or evacuation plans.
7. Thank you all for those that read this and understand where I’m coming from. I stand ready as rescue support for here in Galveston and if needed I will travel to east coast to help there, if that time comes. Everyone stay safe and once again be mindful of the information you are presenting on here as to exactly how may people and organizations it may have an impact on. God bless you all.

100%. Thank you.

Weird how when less than 24 hours ago I said almost verbatim the same thing I was told "this isn't kindergarten" and "we aren't here to hold people's hands" and a bunch of people piled on about how making sweeping statements and stating unverified information as fact that it is "part of the fun" of being on these boards.

I also work in emergency management, and though I'm not on the east coast, much the same applies to how bad information gets immediately propagated by people who are not educated in meteorology to know how to tell a data supported forecast from someone just making big bold calls with no information backing it to try to feel knowledgeable.

[Bluehawk]

Hello to all members of Storm2K,
Let me start things off firstly by apologizing for this post/thread interruption. My name is Christopher and I’m a storm/rescue responder in Galveston, Texas. I personally rescued 181 people from Dickinson to Cypress Texas during Hurricane Harvey. 7 days out in pure hell, constantly soaked. For me as a board lurker this is something that has to be said and now is this moment.
1. Everyone on here needs to 100% understand that there are outsiders lurking and reading information here to sadly use said info to make their “leave or stay” and “prep or not to prep” decisions. I personally know that this practice is not ethical but it is happening as we speak, everyday-every year. There seems to be an understanding that this is a board of nothing but scientists and pro meteorologists. So keep that in mind as to how a big portion of people see this board.
2. There is a specific board for “storm model” talk and a specific for “storm non-model discussion”, and you all need to keep it as it was intended. Please stay on topic.
3. Never ever say anyone is “in the clear” at any time, unless you you work for the NHC you do not have that authority. You have to understand that one person may come here and base your one lousy statement as fact and not look at another post and carry on in life, but yet that individual goes and tells others what he or she read. This is not acceptable verbiage. There truly are people in lower Florida as we speak that really are trying to return “Emergency Supplies” that they bought three days ago based on what they erroneously ready from yesterday here. This is extremely concerning.
4. Said “rogue” statements make my job as a storm/emergency first responder very difficult. If an evacuation is ordered for a particular area I need as many as possible to leave said area. Even if I’m the end nothing transpired in said areas. I’ve heard it way too often that a family decided to ride a storm out at last minute and then got trapped and had to be rescued based off an internet board posting. But to learn this statement as I’m standing in 5 feet of septic waters in a flooded neighborhood rescuing families I get very upset at this trend. I have not built my mind and body and reinforced my rescue vehicle and spent thousands on safety gear and medical supplies and food to constantly hear these sickening comments.
5. I appreciate every poster on here wether you add something big or small to the conversation, know it’s appreciated as long as it’s valid speech.
6. To me as a first responder, anyone from North Carolina to Brownsville Texas needs to have one eye open on this current storm and always seek professional information from your local authorities and the NHC when making prep or evacuation plans.
7. Thank you all for those that read this and understand where I’m coming from. I stand ready as rescue support for here in Galveston and if needed I will travel to east coast to help there, if that time comes. Everyone stay safe and once again be mindful of the information you are presenting on here as to exactly how may people and organizations it may have an impact on. God bless you all.

Thank you so much for your intervention here, and for your selfless work. I've had to actually correct some people on FB public groups who were sounding the "all clear" even from yesterday afternoon (and I never engage into internet arguments, considering them futile. This is an exception, as it can endanger lives), but yes, there are some here as well - just read one post on models, saying this is not a FL storm. BUT: as I went onto accuweather to see what's the weather going to be like tonight and tomorrow (trying to see if, should further development prove we do need to board up the last doors, we won't have to do that in the rain), this is what I see on a big orange banner at the top of the page: "Cat. 4 Dorian on track to bring devastation to northern Bahamas, but may spare Florida." Smh. I know it's "may", not "will", but many may still look at that and say "yeay!" When there's no "yeay" coming from NHC yet, and there should be no "yeay!" until it's gone.

[pgoss11]

Looking at all the latest models runs it is quite possible Dorian COC doesn’t hit any of the United States. What an amazing thing that would be! Praying for those in the Bahamas. Godspeed.

[Condor]

Anyone have the readings from recon on the ridge ?

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1167872178106187776

[AutoPenalti]

Anyone have the readings from recon on the ridge ?

We won’t get any readings until 0z.

[ScottNAtlanta]

(I posted this in Models thread, but I think it might be better posted here)

Something I have noticed is that the ULL that has been west of Dorian for some time was forecast to be diving SW and weakening. As far as I can see, its not doing that but moving west almost in tandem with Dorian. I also (looking on WV) dont think this coming shortwave is as strong as forecast. I dont know what the implications of those two thing would be in conjunction with modeling, but I find it valuable to acknowledge what you see with your own two eyes rather than constant model watching where you dont really take a look at the pattern unfolding that you can see.
Also, with an approaching shortwave I would expect humidity levels in the Atlanta Metro (where I am) to be increasing with SW flow...yet RH is at 40% which is quite low for this area this time of year.

[johngaltfla]

Anyone have the readings from recon on the ridge ?

Here is the raw data file link from Tropical Tidbits for the current NOAA flight:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/data/re ... DORIAN.txt

Translation link is on that page also. Data is still coming in so you'll have to refresh.

[Craters]

If you want a very nice, little utility that will convert knots to mph or mph to kph or just about anything in between, try this:

https://joshmadison.com/convert-for-windows/

It's free, and I've been using it for years for all sorts of conversions. Keep a shortcut on your desktop and it's always right there. It's extremely easy to use and very self-explanatory.