ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Poor guy doesn't know that it is stronger than a tropical depression.

https://twitter.com/bamajohne/status/1185223408558063616

Myself, Aric and many others on this forum would be enjoying that cruise!

Me too, but my would had been having a panic attack by now lol.

[TallyTracker]

Hmm, three Carnival cruise ships were caught on the path of the storm, somebody gave them the wrong forecast, lol.

https://i.imgur.com/vRwNfU3.png

I’m surprised they didn’t divert the ships away from that area. There has been at least a moderate chance of a tropical storm in the Central Gulf for days now. Plenty of time to head southeast into calmer waters IMO.

[CrazyC83]

Wow, not the type of wx to be out on the deck of this cruise ship.

Tides and Currents Weather Stations Pressure Air Temp Water Temp Dewpoint Dewpoint Depression Visibility Wind Speed Wind Dir Waves Ship Positions



Fantasy
Operator: Carnival Cruise Lines

Last reported at 2019-Oct-18 15:00 UTC. Time now 2019-Oct-18 17:14 UTC.
Position N 24°42' W 088°54'.

Type: Ship. MMSI: 353486000.

Wind from 200 at 45 knots

Barometer 999.6 mb

If that is an accurate pressure reading and wind concurrent with each other, the pressure would likely be around 995 mb.

[gatorcane]

Quite a blob heading for the peninsula:

[Emmett_Brown]

So far, the only wind direction that is absent to make Nestor's circulation complete seems to be N winds. They are probably out there somewhere.

[wxman57]

26.3N, 89.5W looks right. There isn't any other circulation center. Nothing in the convection to the east. That's where my crosshairs are on the image below. Looks weaker than earlier today. Winds 40-45 kts. With a center so far-removed from the convection (and no convergence into it) it cannot strengthen. It would have to redevelop another center near the center, and I see no sign of that.

[SunnyThoughts]

Do you guys think the NHC will discontinue the warnings/watches West of say...Ft Walton, considering the blob is apparently going to be well East of those areas?

[wxman57]

Do you guys think the NHC will discontinue the warnings/watches West of say...Ft Walton, considering the blob is apparently going to be well East of those areas?

Those for SE LA can certainly be cancelled.

[abajan]

Wow, not the type of wx to be out on the deck of this cruise ship.

Tides and Currents Weather Stations Pressure Air Temp Water Temp Dewpoint Dewpoint Depression Visibility Wind Speed Wind Dir Waves Ship Positions

Fantasy
Operator: Carnival Cruise Lines
Last reported at 2019-Oct-18 15:00 UTC. Time now 2019-Oct-18 17:14 UTC.
Position N 24°42' W 088°54'.
Type: Ship. MMSI: 353486000.
Wind from 200 at 45 knots
Barometer 999.6 mb

That's the ship on the image below SSE of the center.

http://wxman57.com/images/16e.JPG

They used a pentagram to show its location. How odd.

[NDG]

26.3N, 89.5W looks right. There isn't any other circulation center. Nothing in the convection to the east. That's where my crosshairs are on the image below. Looks weaker than earlier today. Winds 40-45 kts. With a center so far-removed from the convection (and no convergence into it) it cannot strengthen. It would have to redevelop another center near the center, and I see no sign of that.

http://wxman57.com/images/16f.JPG

The eastern quadrant where the deep convection is has not been sampled yet by the AF, I am sure that's where the 50-50 knot winds still are.

[Ubuntwo]

26.3N, 89.5W looks right. There isn't any other circulation center. Nothing in the convection to the east. That's where my crosshairs are on the image below. Looks weaker than earlier today. Winds 40-45 kts. With a center so far-removed from the convection (and no convergence into it) it cannot strengthen. It would have to redevelop another center near the center, and I see no sign of that.

http://wxman57.com/images/16f.JPG

The eastern quadrant where the deep convection is has not been sampled yet by the AF, I am sure that's where the 50-50 knot winds still are.

Most likely, as we've seen before with storms of this structure the highest winds are often contained in squalls far from the center, usually under the deepest convection.

[wxman57]

Hmm, three Carnival cruise ships were caught on the path of the storm, somebody gave them the wrong forecast, lol.

https://i.imgur.com/vRwNfU3.png

I’m surprised they didn’t divert the ships away from that area. There has been at least a moderate chance of a tropical storm in the Central Gulf for days now. Plenty of time to head southeast into calmer waters IMO.

Ship captains (have dealt with them for 40 yrs) can be VERY stubborn. This wasn't even a named storm. Ships are on a very tight schedule. Any delays coming to port could cost them quite a lot of money, plus the inconvenience of passengers missing flights home. Bad publicity. Better to go through a little rough weather than to delay arrival by taking a detour.

[TallyTracker]

The high tide is 5:39 am at St. Marks tomorrow morning. That’s about the time the strongest south winds will be coming in. I expect to there could be some significant coastal flooding in Wakulla County.

[CrazyC83]

Do you guys think the NHC will discontinue the warnings/watches West of say...Ft Walton, considering the blob is apparently going to be well East of those areas?

Those for SE LA can certainly be cancelled.

New warnings may need to be added farther east as well.

[CrazyC83]

Wow, not the type of wx to be out on the deck of this cruise ship.

Tides and Currents Weather Stations Pressure Air Temp Water Temp Dewpoint Dewpoint Depression Visibility Wind Speed Wind Dir Waves Ship Positions



Fantasy
Operator: Carnival Cruise Lines

Last reported at 2019-Oct-18 15:00 UTC. Time now 2019-Oct-18 17:14 UTC.
Position N 24°42' W 088°54'.

Type: Ship. MMSI: 353486000.

Wind from 200 at 45 knots

Barometer 999.6 mb

What site did you go to for those obs?

[NDG]

According to the latest Euro, which shows Nestor becoming a Hurricane for short period of time tonight, the Tampa Bay area will get 50-60 mph wind gusts as the squall line pushes through the area in the morning, but it is usually too aggressive with its wind gusts forecast.

[wxman57]

I'd estimate that surface winds well east of the weak center are in the 40-45 kt range. Convection has weakened since this morning.

[psyclone]

Do you guys think the NHC will discontinue the warnings/watches West of say...Ft Walton, considering the blob is apparently going to be well East of those areas?

Those for SE LA can certainly be cancelled.

New warnings may need to be added farther east as well.

I'm certainly expecting Gale-ish/low end ts conditions here along the west coast...whether we get warnings or not. Right now we have a small craft advisory for our marine area...with wind gusts expected to 45 knots and double digit sea heights...lol.

[Aric Dunn]

maybe maybe.. center is looking better.. exposed.. and sliding east... but looking better... following the convection..

[wxman57]

26.5N / 89W. No way this has 50kt surface winds.