ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LarryWx]

Slowed down again. Speed changes due to wobbling?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Greetings. Any estimate when recon will be in the eye in eastern time?

Both Air Force and NOAA recon are scheduled to arrive in the center at 7:30pm EDT.

[senorpepr]

I doubt the NHC will increase the intensity before Recon arrives though. It's not obvious enough with an aircraft a few hours away (and even when obvious, they are willing to wait).

I fully agree. Wish we were able to time it to get the crew inside prior to the main advisory suite, but we'll have the data for the 00Z advisory and best track.

[sikkar]

Greetings. Any estimate when recon will be in the eye in eastern time?

Both Air Force and NOAA recon are scheduled to arrive in the center at 7:30pm EDT.

Thank you.
Looks like IR presentation is improving.

[Kat5]

12z UKMET ensembles likes Miami-Dade again.
https://i.imgur.com/ybNXoXm.png

If that observation dot is accurate, then Dorian is tracking north from all of them.

[chaser1]

I feel bad for the Abacos and Grand Bahama which are about to experience a full blown Cat.4 head on.

I been over to the Abacos MANY of times and have a friend with a house on Man-O-War Cay, probably the best major island out of the several different Bahama islands I’ve been too.

Hope the best for him. A head on hit from this thing would likely level most everything short of a complete concrete structure secure from storm surge

[WeatherEmperor]

Slightly off topic Q for Mark, Luis or other mods. Are you guys updating the Atlantic ACE count on the Talkin Tropics forum? I am curious how we stand especially with Dorian nearing Cat 5 status


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[Ian2401]

Slightly off topic Q for Mark, Luis or other mods. Are you guys updating the Atlantic ACE count on the Talkin Tropics forum? I am curious how we stand especially with Dorian nearing Cat 5 status


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this is a good site http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

[ozonepete]

12z UKMET ensembles likes Miami-Dade again.
https://i.imgur.com/ybNXoXm.png

UKMET is going to lose some cred by the end of this storm.

[otowntiger]

I doubt the NHC will increase the intensity before Recon arrives though. It's not obvious enough with an aircraft a few hours away (and even when obvious, they are willing to wait).

I fully agree. Wish we were able to time it to get the crew inside prior to the main advisory suite, but we'll have the data for the 00Z advisory and best track.

I agree they won’t upgrade w/o recon hard data, but I imagine if they get it and can confirm that it is cat 5 worthy they will provide a special advisory to upgrade since that would be big news.

[ozonepete]

Slowed down again. Speed changes due to wobbling?

Speed changes also occur just before a recurve.

[Vdogg]

Looks like it will miss next plot to the north.

https://i.imgur.com/2KwUxUx.gif

If it keeps doing that it'll miss the Bahamas slightly to the North.

The core might miss but rain impacts won't.

Oh, for sure. I’m not saying no impact by any stretch, it’ll just be less impact than the previously forecast direct hit.

[chaser1]

Wonder if the current sampling mission being done out in front of Dorian will have any noticeable effects on the 18z and/or 00z modeling??

I suppose the added sampling could offer any insight to minor variations in near term upper height changes that could bear out whether we might still see any temporary SW motion dips prior to the storms stall and turn to the NNW. The only near term worry that still nags at me is the possibility of any change in forward speed that might impact getting tucked slightly under the eastward expanding ridge over the Central CONUS that would be expanding (filling) slowly eastward as the weak trough over the E. Seaboard pulls up and the flow becoming a bit more zonal farther to the north. One concern was for a near landfall approach in the nearer term close to W. Palm Beach/Jupiter area before beginning a crawl more to the north; Or perhaps a left hook approach after Dorian begins to pull to the NNW somewhere approaching the latitude of Daytona and St. Augustine should the timing change and an eastward expanding ridge begin to move far enough to the east and impact a more WNW forward motion back toward the N.E. Florida coastline. Sometimes it really is a game of inches

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Incredible hurricane.

[northjaxpro]

I feel bad for the Abacos and Grand Bahama which are about to experience a full blown Cat.4 head on.

I been over to the Abacos MANY of times and have a friend with a house on Man-O-War Cay, probably the best major island out of the several different Bahama islands I’ve been too.

Hope the best for him. A head on hit from this thing would likely level most everything short of a complete concrete structure secure from storm surge

Yeah I want re-emphasize again that my thoughts and prayers to everyone who is in the crosshairs of this monster Dorian! Please say a prayer to those who are being impacted in the Central and Bahamas!! Godspeed!!

[chaser1]

12z UKMET ensembles likes Miami-Dade again.
https://i.imgur.com/ybNXoXm.png

Just not sure why so many UK members seem to favor such a westward based solution? Anyway, this would probably be better fitting under the Dorian - Models thread. (I hadn't see the 12Z UK run yet, but am curious whether it's shifted from it's prior 12 or 24 hr. run so will check there shortly.)

[mutley]

12z UKMET ensembles likes Miami-Dade again.
https://i.imgur.com/ybNXoXm.png

UKMET is going to lose some cred by the end of this storm.

How sure are you of that?

[hohnywx]

5 PM advisory stays at 150 MPH. Movement remains W at 8 MPH.

[chaser1]

Slowed down again. Speed changes due to wobbling?

That, or wobbling due to decreased speed changes LOL. My thought was that the additional slow down might be indicative of additional deepening. Maybe recon will find about 10 mb missing from the last time in the center

[Bad_Hurricane]

12z UKMET ensembles likes Miami-Dade again.
https://i.imgur.com/ybNXoXm.png

UKMET is going to lose some cred by the end of this storm.

Possible, but we’ll see...