ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hipshot]

And the real story with the steering ...

https://imgshare.io/images/2019/08/31/7.gif

If this storm is going to recurve to the north it had better get started because with that air flow, I don't see it. Maybe tomorrow but not today.

[Evenstar]

It has been mentioned and documented before, but it deserves mention once more. There is no such thing as conventional wisdom with Dorian. This tropical cyclone has pulled several surprises in his lifespan. It really makes me currently still have this uneasy feeling that Dorian may still have one more thing up his sleeve before all is said and done.

This is exactly what I’ve been thinking this entire time. I’m not buying the eastward shift in the track, and wont until that turn starts. This is the same storm that a week ago, people believed wouldn’t survive the Eastern Caribbean. Anything can happen at this point, nobody should let their guard down.

At the same time, remember that a storm is not a living entity. Just because it did something odd once doesn't mean it's more likely to do so again. I know you know that, but it's still so tempting around here to assign personality traits to hurricanes.

I totally get what you're saying about anthropomorphizing these storms (I gleefully do it all the time, because it's fun). That being said, I'm a great believer in that "gut feeling" some posters mentioned earlier. Don't get me wrong, I don't think we should rely on gut instinct over science when forecasting the weather. I just think there are some folks who seem to have an uncanny "feel" for storms and I include their "feels" in my reckoning of any storm

Superfluous, marginally off-topic and hugely unscientific post I know, but I'm not a scientist, so...

[GCANE]

Latest UL Conditions

https://i.imgur.com/vqOCZnv.png

yep i have been watching that 250 mb feature all day. very interesting.

Reminds me of one of these, especially the curve-ball feature.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/fbUmddgaBHU[/youtube]

[xironman]

And the real story with the steering ...

If this storm is going to recurve to the north it had better get started because with that air flow, I don't see it. Maybe tomorrow but not today.

The H5 really breaks down at 72hrs....

[underthwx]

rea Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
528 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

...CLOSELY MONITOR HURRICANE DORIAN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM AND POTENTIALLY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE
FOR THE COAST AND ST JOHNS RIVER LABOR DAY-WEDNESDAY...

.NEAR TERM...Rest of today through tonight...

Bulk of the scattered to numerous showers and storms will be over
nrn half of our area per radar trends and HRRR guidance. Brief
heavy rainfall expected with gusty winds estimated in some of the
showers around 35-45 mph. Still anticipate coastal showers and
possible storms overnight given the instability offshore.
However, we may not see as much convection over the area waters as
we did last night. Some drier air is forecast to be over parts of
northeast Fl that supports this idea. Min temps in the mid 70s,
with upper 70s along the coast.

.SHORT TERM...Sunday-Tuesday...

Continuing to closely watch Dorian on Sunday and expect gradually
deteriorating sensible wx conditions including coastal impacts of
rough surf, life-threatening rip currents, and coastal flooding
issues. Anticipate moist, deep easterly flow up to about 15 kft
for Sunday with pressure gradient tightening, increasing surface
winds to about 15-25 mph and gusty along the coast and 10-15 mph
and gusty inland. Periods of showers and a few embedded storms
anticipated though some drier air in the mid levels may keep the
chances in the 40-60 percent range. However, could see a heavier
band of showers push into the srn zones as suggested by NAM and
GFS. Sunday night, increasing winds expected for the coastal areas
as Dorian moves into the nrn Bahamas area. We should see periods
of fast moving showers and potential storms as winds back to the
northeast at about 25 mph in the 1000-850mb layer. Best chances
of showers will be for the ern zones. Locally heavy rainfall
amounts will be possible though some drier air exists around the
5-15 kft range that may limit the heavy rain potential associated
with coastal showers.

Monday...we start to see deepening moist flow that is northeast
to north, now through 25 kft and anticipate the threat of heavy
rainfall to increase. One or more rain bands will be translating
slowly west to northwest across our area...with northwest zones
likely a bit drier. Winds at the coast likely push toward
sustained 25 mph and gusts to around 35 mph, lower wind speeds
inland. Mon night...according to the latest NHC forecast, the most
likely time of arrival of tropical storm force winds (minimum
sustained at 39 mph) will be during the overnight periods over
southeast most zones. Persistent bands of showers will coastal
areas with more hit and miss showers further inland. The fact that
winds become more northerly means the northwest zones (Coffee,
Jeff Davis area) could have dramatically lower rain chances.

Tuesday...likely time of arrival of tropical storm force winds
occurs this day for the srn 2/3rds of the area, as well as GA
coast, and persistent rains/rain bands are expected. Again one or
more bands may shift westward over the central parts of our
forecast region. Heavy rainfall potential will be increasing for
the coastal areas.

Tuesday night...the weakness in ridge to the north of Dorian is
likely to continue to allow it to push north-northwest and then
north. However, there is still large uncertainty on the track at
this critical time frame. But the current set of guidance is
better news for the area at this time. Still by no means we should
let our guard down. For the coast, tropical storm force chances
are still likely at about 65 to 80 percent and hurricane force
wind probabilities are 10-25 percent.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday...
Dorian is forecast to be due east of the area on Wednesday but
again uncertainty on the track since Dorian will be moving slowly
at least initially, then by Wednesday night picking up some
forward speed to the north. Tropical storm conditions and
hurricane conditions possible for eastern zones for Wednesday. If
this track verifies, the coastal areas will received the brunt of
the winds, and potential for some flooding rains but the heavy
rainfall threat is diminished in this scenario for our area, being
that the eastern side of TC are typically the wettest.

Must stress again that if the upper trough that is supposed to
weaken the ridge north of Dorian ends up weaker or further N or
W...the models could easily shift storm track back westward.
Closely monitor the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane
Center.

Much better situation on Thursday and precipitation coverage is
expected to decrease this day in the wake of the storm as drier
air wraps around the back side of storm...with some increase in
coverage Friday and potentially on Saturday.

Followed consensus guidance on temperatures, which may be
suppressed somewhat eastern areas due to cloudiness and
precipitation from Dorian.

Thought I would post the recent forecast discussion... I like to read the different forecast discussions along the coastline, and compare the thinking among several NWS locations...

[northjaxpro]

Northjaxpro

To your post on the models thread.
I am debating whether to stay or evacuate
So the proximity to the shore is paramount

Well JD Jaguar , here is one more thing I forgot to emphasize. We will evemtualy seè Eyewall Replacement Cycles over the next couple of days. Dorian is small now but with each ERC. Dorian' s windfield and overall size wlli expand, which will widen its impacts across the region as time progresses.

This is a extremely dangerous storm JD. It is much sttonger than Irma ànd the impacts will be potentially as bad or even worse.

I would not take any risks with this storm. Prepare to take action if necessary.

[xironman]

Dorian over on Mesoscale1 now. Here's some links.

The visible is almost ready to give the "marbles in a bowl" effect. The planes are in for bumpy ride.

[TallyTracker]

Dorian is following the NHC’s track closely at this point in my opinion. The projected turn north isn’t supposed to happen for another 36 hours (early Monday morning). Unless Dorian turns sharply and unexpectedly, a westward track is expected. Now if it keeps heading west past Monday midmorning, Florida will be in trouble...

[ozonepete]

And the real story with the steering ...

https://imgshare.io/images/2019/08/31/7.gif

If this storm is going to recurve to the north it had better get started because with that air flow, I don't see it. Maybe tomorrow but not today.

It's not supposed to recurve until tomorrow.

[MacTavish]

You can see the first trough, which should break down the steering around dorian, is sweeping through Nebraska and Kansas now.

[drewschmaltz]

And the real story with the steering ...

https://imgshare.io/images/2019/08/31/7.gif

If this storm is going to recurve to the north it had better get started because with that air flow, I don't see it. Maybe tomorrow but not today.

.

It's not supposed to recurve until tomorrow.

I was just talking to some friends about this. Even if Dorian makes the turn - the calmness they feel now will change when it's Monday morning and they are looking for that North component. Stressful times lie ahead for sure.

[Highteeld]

[underthwx]

Do yall think it would be practical, for the NHC to issue hourly track projections, as well as discussion updates, versus, every few hours?....During cyclones of this magnitude, and the threat it poses?

[northjaxpro]

Dorian is following the NHC’s track closely at this point in my opinion. The projected turn north isn’t supposed to happen for another 36 hours (early Monday morning). Unless Dorian turns sharply and unexpectedly, a westward track is expected. Now if it keeps heading west past Monday midmorning, Florida will be in trouble...

In terns of a cosstal run up and along the Florida East Coast and potential lanffall, yes a continued west motion into Monday would be the worst case situation indeed.

[GCANE]

It may be a wobble, but to me it looks like it is going just south of due west on IR.
ARCHER also showing last Microwave fix south of operational track.

[catskillfire51]

Recon is about to fly over the eye

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1167936114566393857

[Nimbus]

If this storm is going to recurve to the north it had better get started because with that air flow, I don't see it. Maybe tomorrow but not today.

.

It's not supposed to recurve until tomorrow.

I was just talking to some friends about this. Even if Dorian makes the turn - the calmness they feel now will change when it's Monday morning and they are looking for that North component. Stressful times lie ahead for sure.

Looks like the whole slab is slowly sinking except for Dorian's relative motion recon will find it almost stalled. Long as it stays above 26N they won't be too concerned with a stall scenario.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Recon shows Dorian hasn't really strengthened, MSLP down to ~942mb.

[underthwx]

36 hours on a westward track, puts it how close to the Florida coast?