ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Condor]

Anyone have link to east Bahamas radar

http://smartmet.bahamasweather.org.bs/radarcomposite/

[sbcc]

Anyone have link to east Bahamas radar

http://www.bahamasweather.org.bs/radar/

Edit: NVM, Condor's link posted right above me is better.

[Highteeld]

[northjaxpro]

Teachable moment on the Models Thread showing the west and south shifts into this evening.A complicated steering envionment can NEVER be fully trusted wrt a hurricane ptojected track. Too many moving parts and the lack of steering is bound to bring changes within a short-term forecasting period.

It is going to be extremely interesting tonight into tomorrow seeing how the model runs are trying to sort this out.

NEVER , EVER just assume an area.is "in the clear" or "off the hook", unless it is declared so by the official experts (NHC) .
,

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Why use SFMR if you know it'll be inaccurate for intense hurricanes? Might as well just switch it off and reduce from flight level, but I digress...

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REAFFIRM DORIAN'S CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH...
8:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 31
Location: 26.2°N 74.7°W
Moving: W at 8 mph
Min pressure: 941 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

[Hammy]

Teachable moment on the Models Thread showing the west and south shifts into this evening.A complicated steering envionment can NEVER be gully trusted wrt a hurricane ptojected track. Too mny moving parts in thid lack of steering is nound to bting chznges wiyhin a short-term forecasting period.

It is going to be extremely interesting tonight into tomorrow seeing how the model runs are trying yo sort this out.

NEVER , EVER just assume Aan area.is "in the clear" or off the jook" unless it is declared so by the official experts (NHC) .
,

It seems like every one of these storms moves further away when we get to about 96 hours and then moves back west by the 72h point--it happened with Irma and I believe Matthew as well.

Also with regards to NHC keeping it at 150, I wonder if they're waiting on the full data set from all quads since there's no urgency to raise it right now between advisories--it's not like there's a whole lot extra you can do to prepare for 160 vs 150.

[lrak]

With my ocular tracking...lol, just put the satellite in 50 frame loop IR and then roll the eye with your mouse down so you only see half the hurricane you can see it is moving due west still...keeping fingers crossed.

[KWT]

I think we are just short of cat-5, I'd say 155mph would be my call.

Track looks dead on due west now, hasn't been a stair step for a little while either...

Outer bands just starting to hit Abaco, looks like a direct hit is now almost certain...despite how many models on the 00z missed to the north...

[ozonepete]

HWRF NW on track into Melbourne at 72 hours. No stall or turn yet.

Obviously someone forgot to tell the HWRF about the "all clear"

Sadly it appears that none of the great majority of models remembered to tell the poor HWRF.

[DestinHurricane]

NHC should put it at 160 cat 5 to try and wake some of the "florida is all clear" people up.

[NDG]

I just calculated the distance of the last center fix by recon to the last recon fix from the previous recon flights, it is heading at 279 degrees, average forward speed at 9 mph.

[Texashawk]

Using the 26 degree line as a reference - Dorian’s headed dead red west for 2+ hours. Not north of west, west.

[norva13x]

NHC should put it at 160 cat 5 to try and wake some of the "florida is all clear" people up.

Nah, I think the NHC has the right approach about being careful before making changes like that. They have done what they can to warn people not to be complacent. Nothing you can do if they won't listen.

[StormPyrate]

NHC should put it at 160 cat 5 to try and wake some of the "florida is all clear" people up.

They will put up the best facts they have, they are not facebook

[KWT]

I just calculated the distance of the last center fix by recon to the last recon fix from the previous recon flights, it is heading at 279 degrees, average forward speed at 9 mph.

When was the last flight?

Much that northward motion came from one decent northward stair step I think.

Last few hours look real close to due west, at most 275.

[northjaxpro]

Teachable moment on the Models Thread showing the west and south shifts into this evening.A complicated steering envionment can NEVER be gully trusted wrt a hurricane ptojected track. Too mny moving parts in thid lack of steering is nound to bting changes wiyhin a short-term forecasting period.

It is going to be extremely interesting tonight into tomorrow seeing how the model runs are trying yo sort this out.

NEVER , EVER just assume Aan area.is "in the clear" or off the jook" unless it is declared so by the official experts (NHC) .
,

It seems like every one of these storms moves further away when we get to about 96 hours and then moves back west by the 72h point--it happened with Irma and I believe Matthew as well.

Also with regards to NHC keeping it at 150, I wonder if they're waiting on the full data set from all quads since there's no urgency to raise it right now between advisories--it's not like there's a whole lot extra you can do to prepare for 160 vs 150.

Yeah Hammy they are getting full data sampling and I do feel at 11 p.m. , I think they will have ample dsta to support Dorian being upgraded to a Cat 5 . This is the thoughts of this analyst of course not NHC to remind everyone!

[underthwx]

Interests elsewhere in southern and central Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian. Additional watches may be
required for portions of the east coast of Florida tonight or
Sunday.
From the 8 pm NHC advisory...i wonder if they are referring to the section of the Florida coast, already under a Tropical Storm watch?...possibly an upgrade to a Hurricane watch?

[xironman]

HWRF NW on track into Melbourne at 72 hours. No stall or turn yet.

Obviously someone forgot to tell the HWRF about the "all clear"

Sadly it appears that none of the great majority of models remembered to tell the poor HWRF.

You got me there. This such a slow motion train wreck, we won't even get into the action with the turn until 72 hrs.... Who knows what is going to happen with the models with the trough at the summer/fall time frame.

[supercane4867]

Still no signs of EWR on the new microwave pass. I'm quite surprised that it can hold such intense inner core for this long

[CFLHurricane]

NHC should put it at 160 cat 5 to try and wake some of the "florida is all clear" people up.

Nah, I think the NHC has the right approach about being careful before making changes like that. They have done what they can to warn people not to be complacent. Nothing you can do if they won't listen.

Agreed. Unjustifiably increasing a hurricane category will also only serve to reenforce the public’s perception of hurricane forecasts as “fake news”, especially if Dorian avoids catastrophic damage to Florida.