ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Wow, not the type of wx to be out on the deck of this cruise ship.

Tides and Currents Weather Stations Pressure Air Temp Water Temp Dewpoint Dewpoint Depression Visibility Wind Speed Wind Dir Waves Ship Positions



Fantasy
Operator: Carnival Cruise Lines

Last reported at 2019-Oct-18 15:00 UTC. Time now 2019-Oct-18 17:14 UTC.
Position N 24°42' W 088°54'.

Type: Ship. MMSI: 353486000.

Wind from 200 at 45 knots

Barometer 999.6 mb

What site did you go to for those obs?

https://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/cruiseships.phtml

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely consolidating now. still pulling eastward towards the deep convection.. but looks like convergence maybe starting to increase towards the center.

[DestinHurricane]

Just like during Karen, 2 respected members are saying opposite things. 57 won there, let's see who wins here.

[OuterBanker]

Aric vs Wxman

Convergence or Decouple?

Looks like a toss-up to me.

(to be honest it looks closer to decouple to me).

[northjaxpro]

Just like during Karen, 2 respected members are saying opposite things. 57 won there, let's see who wins here.

Ahh Aric vs 57 Round 2 Lol.....

I would chime in my thoughts about this , but I do not want to influence their battle. But, I love their take on things. It is great banter....o

[Emmett_Brown]

Well, pressure is still dropping slowly, recon showing 999.3 on last pass. The last 12Z Euro run deepens it to 980 tonight.

[NDG]

As if it is getting ready to start strengthening as the models are still persistent on.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric vs Wxman

Convergence or Decouple?

Looks like a toss-up to me.

(to be honest it looks closer to decouple to me).

im just talking about the center.. its sheared.. that wont change.. but its very clear compared to earlier the center recon is flying around and that NHC pinned is becoming better defined.

[NDG]

Aric vs Wxman

Convergence or Decouple?

Looks like a toss-up to me.

(to be honest it looks closer to decouple to me).

im just talking about the center.. its sheared.. that wont change.. but its very clear compared to earlier the center recon is flying around and that NHC pinned is becoming better defined.

Yes I agree with Aric, compared to this morning it has a much better defined CoC, still elongated but much better defined a sign that it is continuing to get better organized.

[TheStormExpert]

As if it is getting ready to start strengthening as the models are still persistent on.

https://i.imgur.com/SZ78A9k.gif

The center looks to be west of the convection and not well organized. Having a hard time seeing any strengthening from where it’s at.

[Aric Dunn]

I just hope that now that recon has a center to fix.. they will fly into the deep convection... AF plane as avoided it thus far..

[TallyTracker]

As if it is getting ready to start strengthening as the models are still persistent on.

https://i.imgur.com/SZ78A9k.gif

It looks like it might be beginning to transition to subtropical/extratropical. Are the models forecasting Nestor to remain warm core all the way to the coast?

[northjaxpro]

My professional opinion and I am already on record any way on the thread earlier stating that the southern side of the vorticity was the area of strongest convergence.

Therefore I am in agreement with Aric as well.. Convergence is definitely there imo. The CoC will get better defined

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Looks like a typical nor’easter to me. In fact the one that developed the other day looked more impressive.

[NDG]

As if it is getting ready to start strengthening as the models are still persistent on.

https://i.imgur.com/SZ78A9k.gif

The center looks to be west of the convection and not well organized. Having a hard time seeing any strengthening from where it’s at.

Models are persistent that convection will fire up near the CoC this evening.

[NDG]

As if it is getting ready to start strengthening as the models are still persistent on.

https://i.imgur.com/SZ78A9k.gif

It looks like it might be beginning to transition to subtropical/extratropical. Are the models forecasting Nestor to remain warm core all the way to the coast?

It supposed to be warm core all the way to landfall, becoming extratropical tomorrow afternoon.

[psyclone]

It looks like a large, loose center is becoming more separated from a big ball of convection that has waned to some extent...although some new bursting is just beginning to take shape. As for the usual tug of war...I'd put most of my chips on 57 at this point. Beyond that...this is precisely the type of storm I like to see pointed my direction...weak but packing needed rainfall and good entertainment for the weather fanatic. Yes...shameless wishcasting alert. Probably a net benefit for the vast majority with perhaps a few short straws in the form of some svr wx. Interesting night ahead for eastern gulf folks.

[NDG]

We finally have a VDM, now lets sample the full eastern quadrant where the strong winds are.

URNT12 KNHC 181946
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162019
A. 18/19:35:40Z
B. 26.67 deg N 089.32 deg W
C. NA
D. EXTRAP 999 mb
E. NA
F. NA
G. NA
H. 23 kt
I. 119 deg 29 nm 19:24:30Z
J. 234 deg 25 kt
K. 114 deg 30 nm 19:23:00Z
L. 13 kt
M. 302 deg 17 nm 19:41:30Z
N. 031 deg 15 kt
O. 302 deg 17 nm 19:41:30Z
P. 24 C / 398 m
Q. 24 C / 398 m
R. 22 C / NA
S. 134 / 1
T. 0.02 / 2 nm
U. AF301 0216A INVEST OB 13
MAX FL WIND 25 KT 114 / 30 NM 19:23:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT

[tropicwatch]

This is one of the weirdest situations I have been in for an approaching tropical system. Temperature has been dropping all day now around 59.7, raining with east winds 10-15, starting to become more east-southeasterly 15-20. Usually we are sitting above 80 and temperature drops after the storm with a front. Think this might be the first time the front arrived first and the tropical system still made it to the panhandle. I know, still to be seen. Sorry for the rambling.

[Frank2]

Nestor racing northeast at near 25 mph - probably clear of Florida by tomorrow morning. P.S. I think it's forward speed is the big issue. If it were moving half that, it could strengthen as a warm-core low but its caught up in the trough and moving too fast...