ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

TXNT28 KNES 010014
TCSNTL

A. 05L (DORIAN)

B. 31/2359Z

C. 26.3N

D. 74.7W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T6.0/6.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN LG AND SURROUNDED BY B RESULTING
IN A DT OF 6.0 WHICH INCLUDES 1.0 ADDED FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET =
6.5 AND PT = 6.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

[catskillfire51]

AF308 plane will be flying into the dirty side, that will seal the deal whether it's Cat 5 standards that we all believe it is.

[MacTavish]

Noticing a slight NW wobble on the last few frames by Dorian. We'll see if the due west track continues after or if this is a more longer term direction.

I hate wobble watching idk why I do it lol.

Everyone does it but i think its way too soon at this point.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

AF308 plane will be flying into the dirty side, that will seal the deal whether it's Cat 5 standards that we all believe it is.

They might have switched the SFMR on-and-off for a hard reset too.

[Kazmit]

At this point it would have to start going at a heading of roughly 290 for the eyewall to miss the northern Bahamas. While there's a chance Florida will make it through unscathed, it's not looking so likely this will be the case for the Bahamas.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Bahamas radar at the bottom of this page:
http://www.bahamasweather.org.bs/
Or simply go here for full screen:
http://smartmet.bahamasweather.org.bs/radarcomposite/

Here is the Bahamas weather service Facebook page which occasionally posts radar images too:
https://www.facebook.com/242MetService/

I created a longer loop here:

http://tropicalatlantic.com/historical/ ... n/bahamas/

By changing a few lines of code.

[sponger]

Went to the beach today, empty like a Tuesday, went to Publix, dead as a Tuesday morning. I do not know what caused the NHC to buy into a data challenged model run or two but this could be the forecast bust of the year. They had to come East but well over 100 miles?

[jasons2k]

This has got to be one of the more challenging forecasts in recent memory. Wowsers. A slight shift can make such a huge difference.

[Blown Away]

I'm still seeing a heading of 275 to 280, definitely not <270. Just my eyes though.

Hair N of due W... @275 IMO...

[jdjaguar]

At this point it would have to start going at a heading of roughly 290 for the eyewall to miss the northern Bahamas. While there's a chance Florida will make it through unscathed, it's not looking so likely this will be the case for the Bahamas.

Treasure Cay is about to get absolutely hammered.

[EnnisTx]

With all these different SMFR and Dropsondes showing 156+ winds multiple times, I think they should do an upgrade to 160, we all know in post season analysis this will be upgraded to Cat 5 in most likelihood, so why not do it now to help set off other things that are set off for Cat 5 that aren't set off for Cat 4 (states and countries set certain things to do for each level of a Hurricane), with it about 90% going to hit the Bahamas, I would rather them be prepared for a Cat 5 instead of a Cat 4.

With 150 mph winds already I don't think it really matters if the NHC upgrades it to a category 5 or not.

Category 4 or 5 they're already prepared for the worst.

[Evenstar]

At this point it would have to start going at a heading of roughly 290 for the eyewall to miss the northern Bahamas. While there's a chance Florida will make it through unscathed, it's not looking so likely this will be the case for the Bahamas.

Treasure Cay is about to get absolutely hammered.

I don't know anything about the topography of the Bahamas and I'm curious what their emergency/evacuation plan looks like for a CAT 5.

[ozonepete]

Looking at the just in soundings across the SE US coast from Newport NC and Charleston SC mid level heights are still at 592 dm, JAX 591 dm and over Miami the whole atmospheric column winds are all from the east, from the low levels to the upper levels. The ridge is still strong to the north of Dorian.

There are many other upper level readings from 500 to 200 mb that have to be taken into account, especially from the upper midwest where the trough is beginning to descend southeastward. For just one example, how strong is the trough and how far southeastward will it go? So it's not so much what the ridge is now over the southeast U.S. as much as how strong and which way oriented it will be in the next 3 days.

[abajan]

Something feels very creepy and wrong about this storm. Maybe it’s just its intensity and lack of concern about it holding together. Maybe it’s the forecasted stall. The aircraft issues causing multiple cancelled recon flights. I dunno. Seems like something is wrong. This one isn’t like any other I’ve tracked in 20 years and it’s weird.

Hopefully, most folks in Florida are continuing to monitor Dorian's progress. There's still a fair measure of uncertainty with its track. Levi Cowan's latest video should give everyone pause.

[Kazmit]

At this point it would have to start going at a heading of roughly 290 for the eyewall to miss the northern Bahamas. While there's a chance Florida will make it through unscathed, it's not looking so likely this will be the case for the Bahamas.

Treasure Cay is about to get absolutely hammered.

I don't know anything about the topography of the Bahamas and I'm curious what their emergency/evacuation plan looks like for a CAT 5.

I just went on Google Earth and found that most of the land is below 30ft above sea level. Storm surge will be a major problem. Hopefully as many people leave as possible.

[northjaxpro]

At this point it would have to start going at a heading of roughly 290 for the eyewall to miss the northern Bahamas. While there's a chance Florida will make it through unscathed, it's not looking so likely this will be the case for the Bahamas.

Yeah just awful situation for our neighnors in the Central and NW Bahamas. My thiughts and prsyers to them as Dorian bears down .on them. Godspeed!!!

[underthwx]

This has got to be one of the more challenging forecasts in recent memory. Wowsers. A slight shift can make such a huge difference.

Wowsers is right!...this cyclone is proving itself to be a challenge to forecast...I have profound respect for all of you talented, and knowledgable members...thankyou for sharing your valuable insight, during a time in which many of you are in harms way potentially, I tip my hat to all of you.

[Visioen]

I just went on Google Earth and found that most of the land is below 30ft above sea level. Storm surge will be a major problem. Hopefully as many people leave as possible.

Also means little to no disruption for Dorian.

[feederband]

???? If a Storm stalls close to the coast... Does the Earths rotation ever come into play? Can the coast run into the stalled storm?

[supercane4867]

Looks like he's going to be on ground zero

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1167905668524699649