ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Looking at the just in soundings across the SE US coast from Newport NC and Charleston SC mid level heights are still at 592 dm, JAX 591 dm and over Miami the whole atmospheric column winds are all from the east, from the low levels to the upper levels. The ridge is still strong to the north of Dorian.

Yes it is.

[bob rulz]

Treasure Cay is about to get absolutely hammered.

I don't know anything about the topography of the Bahamas and I'm curious what their emergency/evacuation plan looks like for a CAT 5.

I just went on Google Earth and found that most of the land is below 30ft above sea level. Storm surge will be a major problem. Hopefully as many people leave as possible.

I doubt a lot of people are able to leave, but I know the Bahamas has very good hurricane shelters and protocols in place. If you look at powerful storms that have hit the country, the death toll is typically very low. It's still an obviously awful situation unfolding for them.

[SapphireSea]

???? If a Storm stalls close to the coast... Does the Earths rotation ever come into play? Can the coast run into the stalled storm?

The stall would occur due to forces already countering the c. Rotational effects. A blocking upper high to.the west and a weakening and retreating ridge to the north would favor a stall and sharp turn.

[catskillfire51]

What happened with AF308's pass of the center? Winds don't look right.

[SapphireSea]

Looking at the just in soundings across the SE US coast from Newport NC and Charleston SC mid level heights are still at 592 dm, JAX 591 dm and over Miami the whole atmospheric column winds are all from the east, from the low levels to the upper levels. The ridge is still strong to the north of Dorian.

Yes it is.

Heights are there, but it's not deep layered enough otherwise this would be moving a bit faster. Upper high seems likely to at least block and slow it from approach.

[Hammy]

What happened with AF308's pass of the center? Winds don't look right.

Rain rates are lower. Probably doesn't back up the earlier readings.

[Blown Away]

Latest... Very slight N wobble then back to due W... Seems to picked up a little speed...

[MacTavish]

???? If a Storm stalls close to the coast... Does the Earths rotation ever come into play? Can the coast run into the stalled storm?

The atmosphere as a whole rotates along with the geographic earth so no

[tropicwatch]

It is almost like its trying to shoot the gap between the high and the upper low.

[hipshot]

At this point it would have to start going at a heading of roughly 290 for the eyewall to miss the northern Bahamas. While there's a chance Florida will make it through unscathed, it's not looking so likely this will be the case for the Bahamas.

Treasure Cay is about to get absolutely hammered.

I don't know anything about the topography of the Bahamas and I'm curious what their emergency/evacuation plan looks like for a CAT 5.

I would have to guess that if they wanted to evacuate they would have done so already...it's just a little late for that now I would imagine.

[abajan]

Looks like he's going to be on ground zero

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1167905668524699649

Does he have a death wish?

[aperson]

Looks like he's going to be on ground zero

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1167905668524699649

Does he have a death wish?

Seriously. Even for him that seems like a wild choice.

[NDG]

Looking at the just in soundings across the SE US coast from Newport NC and Charleston SC mid level heights are still at 592 dm, JAX 591 dm and over Miami the whole atmospheric column winds are all from the east, from the low levels to the upper levels. The ridge is still strong to the north of Dorian.

There are many other upper level readings from 500 to 200 mb that have to be taken into account, especially from the upper midwest where the trough is beginning to descend southeastward. For just one example, how strong is the trough and how far southeastward will it go? So it's not so much what the ridge is now over the southeast U.S. as much as how strong and which way oriented it will be in the next 3 days.

You have a good point but one sign that the trough coming down is not weakening the SE US ridging yet is that heights have not fallen as forecasted for tonight, also may I add that height above h50 have actually gone up at h30 & h250 over coastal S.C.
Not sure how will this affect Dorian's path tonight if any, just mentioning it.

[feederband]

???? If a Storm stalls close to the coast... Does the Earths rotation ever come into play? Can the coast run into the stalled storm?

The atmosphere as a whole rotates along with the geographic earth so no

Just something that ran though my head. Thanks.

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at the just in soundings across the SE US coast from Newport NC and Charleston SC mid level heights are still at 592 dm, JAX 591 dm and over Miami the whole atmospheric column winds are all from the east, from the low levels to the upper levels. The ridge is still strong to the north of Dorian.

There are many other upper level readings from 500 to 200 mb that have to be taken into account, especially from the upper midwest where the trough is beginning to descend southeastward. For just one example, how strong is the trough and how far southeastward will it go? So it's not so much what the ridge is now over the southeast U.S. as much as how strong and which way oriented it will be in the next 3 days.

Yes but unfortunately the short term motion now will lead to long term problem later regardless of whats happening with the shortwave. That shortwave is not close enough to cause any effect on the environment around Dorian right now..

its currently south of all the 12/18z gfs guidance and still heading west. The recurve will happen.. just when is the issue. and its looking like there will be enough ridging to cause florida east coast some serious problems.

[Ian2401]

when should this start slowing down? soon right?

[Kat5]

Looking at the WV and the steering charts, I wouldn’t rule out a slight southerly component with it’s westward heading. JMO

[Michele B]

Track was nudged a little south and west in the Bahamas @ 5pm.

https://i.imgur.com/eZH8s7z.gif

It looks to me like they moved the "northerly" line FURTHER EAST!!

Seems like they're determined it WILL go north and stay off the FL coast.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1167967799869751298

[ExBailbonds]

Looking at the just in soundings across the SE US coast from Newport NC and Charleston SC mid level heights are still at 592 dm, JAX 591 dm and over Miami the whole atmospheric column winds are all from the east, from the low levels to the upper levels. The ridge is still strong to the north of Dorian.

There are many other upper level readings from 500 to 200 mb that have to be taken into account, especially from the upper midwest where the trough is beginning to descend southeastward. For just one example, how strong is the trough and how far southeastward will it go? So it's not so much what the ridge is now over the southeast U.S. as much as how strong and which way oriented it will be in the next 3 days.

Yes but unfortunately the short term motion now will lead to long term problem later regardless of whats happening with the shortwave. That shortwave is not close enough to cause any effect on the environment around Dorian right now..

its currently south of all the 12/18z gfs guidance and still heading west. The recurve will happen.. just when is the issue. and its looking like there will be enough ridging to cause florida east coast some serious problems.

Eric Dunn You have been rock solid and correct with your warnings on the west run. Great work. Thank you for the work but i wish you were wrong.