ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

Just a slow steady, very light rain here in Santa Rosa County, just to the East of Pensacola. Loving it! 59 degrees and very light breeze .

[psyclone]

Dewpoints going up fast here in west central florida...some of those supercell structures will have a better chance of making it onshore as more tropical air advects onto the coast this evening and overnight

[TallyTracker]

This is one of the weirdest situations I have been in for an approaching tropical system. Temperature has been dropping all day now around 59.7, raining with east winds 10-15, starting to become more east-southeasterly 15-20. Usually we are sitting above 80 and temperature drops after the storm with a front. Think this might be the first time the front arrived first and the tropical system still made it to the panhandle. I know, still to be seen. Sorry for the rambling.

I was thinking the exact same thing here in Tallahassee. Feels nothing like the steamy calm before Michael hit last year.

[Aric Dunn]

I guess they are not going to sample the convection... lol soo weird.

[tropicwatch]

I guess they are not going to sample the convection... lol soo weird.

Guess they are concentrating on movement and keeping a closer eye on pressure. There is another AF flight scheduled in a little over two hours.

[NDG]

Nestor racing northeast at near 25 mph - probably clear of Florida by tomorrow morning. P.S. I think it's forward speed is the big issue. If it were moving half that, it could strengthen as a warm-core low but its caught up in the trough and moving too fast...

Officially per the last advisory is at 22 mph, but I don't think is even that fast is probably more like in the 15-18 mph range.

[MetsIslesNoles]

This is one of the weirdest situations I have been in for an approaching tropical system. Temperature has been dropping all day now around 59.7, raining with east winds 10-15, starting to become more east-southeasterly 15-20. Usually we are sitting above 80 and temperature drops after the storm with a front. Think this might be the first time the front arrived first and the tropical system still made it to the panhandle. I know, still to be seen. Sorry for the rambling.

I was thinking the exact same thing here in Tallahassee. Feels nothing like the steamy calm before Michael hit last year.

Feels more like one of those dreary December days we get, I agree.

[NDG]

I guess they are not going to sample the convection... lol soo weird.

Wxman57 called them and told them to head back to base,

[LarryWx]

This is one of the ugliest 60 mph tropical storms I've ever seen. Of course, ugly is a good thing since that means highly sheared as of now. But regardless of this, some models have the LLC tightening at about this point.

[SFLcane]

South Florida is under a cirrus warning

[rigbyrigz]

Here in Big Bend it appears that Convection Blob will pass south and east of us, while the center may be onto us directly. My urgent question please: are these 60-65 mph winds and gusts occurring at the surface ( in my face) actually swirling around the convectionless center so that there will be a high wind impact we will FEEL, (perhaps without much rain?)

[Aric Dunn]

Nestor racing northeast at near 25 mph - probably clear of Florida by tomorrow morning. P.S. I think it's forward speed is the big issue. If it were moving half that, it could strengthen as a warm-core low but its caught up in the trough and moving too fast...

Officially per the last advisory is at 22 mph, but I don't think is even that fast is probably more like in the 15-18 mph range.

last 6 plus hours.. with all the re organizing it has not moved even that fast.

[tropicwatch]

A neighbors house on my southwest side. It will be interesting to see if the tarp is still there tomorrow afternoon. I use to not be able to see this house before Michael, too many trees.

[Emmett_Brown]

I'm hoping the next flight will give us a better idea of the size of the wind field.

[chaser1]

South Florida is under a cirrus warning

Best post today

[wxman57]

The only convergence I see is along the frontal boundary east of the low center.

[HDGator]

Here in Big Bend it appears that Convection Blob will pass south and east of us, while the center may be onto us directly. My urgent question please: are these 60-65 mph winds and gusts occurring at the surface ( in my face) actually swirling around the convectionless center so that there will be a high wind impact we will FEEL, (perhaps without much rain?)

In Big Bend you need to expect a strong Tropical Storm based on NHC and pretty much all the models. Typically, the stronger gusts will be in the stronger precipitation that helps mix down the stronger winds from aloft. I would expect both stronger winds and rain in Big Bend. If you have any preps to do, now is the time. You've got rain inbound based on radar now.

[wxman57]

I'm hoping the next flight will give us a better idea of the size of the wind field.

There are plenty of real surface obs across the NE Gulf. Don't need much help from recon. General winds are 15-25 kts around it. It has a pitiful wind field. Might still have some 35-40 kt wind, but that may be stretching it.

[NDG]

Lots of rotating cells with the first line of storms that will be moving across the Peninsula this evening.

[blp]

The only convergence I see is along the frontal boundary east of the low center.

Yep.