WPAC: KAMMURI - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

Cat 4

29W KAMMURI 191202 1200 13.0N 124.7E WPAC 115 943

[doomhaMwx]

Doughnut

[NDG]

[Hayabusa]

2019DEC02 124000 6.6 932.5 129.6 6.6 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 8.16 -75.81 EYE 33 IR 60.4 12.99 -124.43 ARCHER HIM-8 24.2

[doomhaMwx]

Will make landfall very soon.

[Hayabusa]

2019DEC02 131000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A OFF 99.50 99.50 LAND N/A N/A 12.16 -124.85 ARCHER HIM-8 23.3

[doomhaMwx]

2019DEC02 131000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A OFF 99.50 99.50 LAND N/A N/A 12.16 -124.85 ARCHER HIM-8 23.3

lol.

[1900hurricane]

I like the JTWC estimate of 115 kt/943 mb, and I wouldn't even be surprised to see surface obs support just a little below that considering the maximum probable pressure rates of a core this size is probably 30-35 mb/18 hr, and JTWC is pretty much right on that rate with their data.

[doomhaMwx]

Josh Morgerman and James Reynolds are in Legazpi City.

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1201474612657299458



 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1201500787106402304




 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1201490767157460994



 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1201499698554494976

[Hayabusa]

It's back again

2019DEC02 134000 6.6 932.5 129.6 6.6 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 13.95 -74.31 EYE 28 IR 60.4 13.02 -124.45 ARCHER HIM-8 24.2

[Hayabusa]

WDPN31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY KAMMURI HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 45 KNOTS
(70-115 KNOTS) OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING
SYSTEM WITH A LARGE 48-NM OBLONG EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. TY 29W IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL AND
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF SAMAR ISLAND. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ARE SPARSE IN THIS AREA BUT VIRAC (98446), LOCATED 47
NM NORTHWEST, REPORTED A SHARP INCREASE IN WINDS TO 51 KNOTS IN
THEIR 02/13Z OBSERVATION WITH SLP NEAR 989.6 MB. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE
OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) AND A 020908Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 120
KNOTS. TY KAMMURI IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 29W SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR. TY 29W SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER THE
CENTRAL PHILIPPINES DUE TO INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS, HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN TYPHOON STRENGTH DUE TO ITS TRACK OVER
THE WARM WATERS OF THE INLAND SEAS. AFTER TAU 48, TY 29W WILL
ENCOUNTER STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FLOW AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SLOW FORWARD MOTION
AND TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72 WITH AN 85 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72 ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AS THE SYSTEM HITS THE NORTHEAST SURGE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 29W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT ACCELERATES
WITHIN THE NORTHEAST SURGE FLOW, AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU
120. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

As of 10pm PhT (14Z):
Virac (Catanduanes): sustained winds of 101kph (28 m/s ; 55kts) and SLP 989.2 mb.
Legazpi (Albay): gust of 119 kph (33 m/s ; 64kts) and SLP of 986mb.

[NDG]

In the last few minutes looks like the eye's center will go right over where Josh Morgerman is.

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1201519879548878848

[1900hurricane]

Pretty clear to see on WV how the expansive outflow helped fuel the rapid intensification.

[NDG]

Legaspi is about to get hit with the eyewall, the center of the eye will track right over them.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The eye of Typhoon #TisoyPH has made landfall in Gubat, Sorsogon at 11:00 PM tonight.

- PAGASA on Facebook, 4 mins ago

[Hayabusa]

90 kt

TY 1928 (Kammuri)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 2 December 2019

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 2 December>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N13°05' (13.1°)
E124°05' (124.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 500 km (270 NM)
SE 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 03 UTC, 3 December>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N13°20' (13.3°)
E121°50' (121.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 40 km (20 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 130 km (70 NM)

<Forecast for 15 UTC, 3 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°55' (13.9°)
E119°50' (119.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 120 km (65 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 4 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°20' (15.3°)
E116°30' (116.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 5 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°10' (14.2°)
E114°35' (114.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW Slow
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 190 km (100 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 6 December>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N9°35' (9.6°)
E114°00' (114.0°)
Direction and speed of movement S 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1201526869331337216

[NotoSans]

According to PAGASA website, AWS in Sorsogon is still recording a pressure above 960mb. Central pressure may be in the high 950s.