ATL: DORIAN - Models

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1167918008280338433

[Nasdaq]

I was surprised nhc shifted track so much based on model runs that were using old atmospheric data. Everyone was tweeting hey look at these off shore ensembles, but no one was mentioning they were based on outdated atmospheric data. All eyes on 0z runs

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1167924503986311172

[Ian2401]

00z runs will be big

[chaser1]

Never could I have imagined people would over react to an eastward trend only for the "spring" to bounce back. /s

It was quite an east shift though. Enough to get the NHC to bite hard. If it does go back west heads are gonna explode.

Very possibly

[Full8s]

The majority of the ukmet ensembles come on shore of Florida. Everyone better hope this is incorrect because there is a serious lack of concern right now on the Florida coast of a hit. If Dorian is sneaky and stalls over South Florida instead of the Bahamas, a track well within the realm of possibility, that's a serious safety issue. South Florida is currently out of the cone and people are tuning out and the time for evacuations is short. A forecast bust could have life or death implications.

That's an unfair assumption/blanket statement. Floridians are not turning their attention elsewhere. I'm all the way up in the Tampa area and people are being very vigilant despite being on the GOM.

[AutoPenalti]

Remember folks, we are still 2-3 days away from any sort of arrival. These models will shift again.

[sma10]

18z UK?

[lrak]

Never could I have imagined people would over react to an eastward trend only for the "spring" to bounce back. /s

It was quite an east shift though. Enough to get the NHC to bite hard. If it does go back west heads are gonna explode.

Very possibly

some words do make it funny...just playing...you all know me by now

[gailwarning]

In this era of social media (tweets) and the usual news reports citing “extreme” outcomes to raise our pulse and clicks, the misuse or misunderstanding of spaghetti models to communicate danger is indeed troublesome. I have lurked here for some time finally just joined to ask a question, or 2.

Since I have formerly been one of the 50-100 “guests” lurking 24/7 and mollycoddling friends and relatives in the possible paths, I cannot say how appreciative many of us are for shedding light and truth on the actual state of affairs. So thanks to all, as well as the rescuers and others helping and posting.

Since y’all are mostly so kind and helpful with your time and efforts, I just wanted to emphasize that while some are coming at ya a bit for expressing the potential benefits of trends or shifts, there is gratitude and affection aplenty out here. But yes, we dumbos do make some plans based upon what we read here so the guidelines from mods and others does indeed make a lot of sense.

As a non-professional follower as well, I'd like to make a suggestion to all who find this site helpful: please consider making a small donation to thank the folks here for doing such a good job of keeping us informed. (disclaimer: I am in no way affiliated with this site)

[SFLcane]

We will see if the west trends continue during the 00z runs

[TheStormExpert]

Likely Hurricane Watches would be needed for a portion of SE FL through NE FL if the 18z GFS verifies.

[TheStormExpert]

Remember folks, we are still 2-3 days away from any sort of arrival. These models will shift again.

It’s hard to believe that even 2-3 days out the models can be still adjusting.

[catskillfire51]

Remember folks, we are still 2-3 days away from any sort of arrival. These models will shift again.

It’s hard to believe that even 2-3 days out the models can be still adjusting.

I am wondering if all the issues with Recon the past couple of days are playing a big part in this

[toad strangler]

Remember folks, we are still 2-3 days away from any sort of arrival. These models will shift again.

It’s hard to believe that even 2-3 days out the models can be still adjusting.

No, it isn’t.

[AtlanticWind]

Remember folks, we are still 2-3 days away from any sort of arrival. These models will shift again.

It’s hard to believe that even 2-3 days out the models can be still adjusting.

Always tough when a Hurricane is turning into a weakness

[sma10]

Remember folks, we are still 2-3 days away from any sort of arrival. These models will shift again.

It’s hard to believe that even 2-3 days out the models can be still adjusting.

Especially IF there's a stall. I suppose there's evidence of a model performing brilliantly throughout a stall episode, but my remembrances are that they tend to be dodgy

[AtlanticWind]

HWRF running slightly south

[AxaltaRacing24]

Remember folks, we are still 2-3 days away from any sort of arrival. These models will shift again.

It’s hard to believe that even 2-3 days out the models can be still adjusting.

Especially IF there's a stall. I suppose there's evidence of a model performing brilliantly throughout a stall episode, but my remembrances are that they tend to be dodgy

Weak steering = Weaker forecasting

[AtlanticWind]

HMON slightly faster