ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ColdMiser123]

Close to a 180 degree wind shift found near the MLC.

[sphelps8681]

Close to a 180 degree wind shift found near the MLC.

Ok novice here. What does that translate to?

[sphelps8681]

Yes, this is still a disorganized mess and not stacked. Gonna be tonight probably before an upgrade.

Oh, I HATE these "we'll know more in another day or two" scenarios.

Not picking on YOU, jason, just saying, in light of earlier convo about "can't really seeing something yet"....it just seems like we spend a lot of time playing the waiting game with storms nowadays....

Maybe it's just because we all want to "call them" way sooner than technology could make possible just a few years ago.

And when I think about how much more information we are all able to process/discuss/understand/view - it's pretty amazing, really. I know there are probably several promets on these boards, but some (like ME!) are just novices who have an interest in all this, but a lot of it still goes over my head. But I enjoy knowing what I know - being able to learn more about their formation, etc.

I appreciate all the input from those way more knowledgeable than I.

Welcome to the world of hurricane tracking!! LOL.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

https://imgur.com/sqjoAww

NHC is still well west of the TVCN with their updated track. The NHC doesn't shift tracks wildly which is smart. However, the TVCN is 100 miles east of the NHC's 4pm track.

That’s the smart choice instead of following the models verbatim. TX/LA line to Lafayette makes the most sense given what we know right now.

[GCANE]

Picking up due west winds, 10 to 13 knots

[fireitup]

Close to a 180 degree wind shift found near the MLC.

Ok novice here. What does that translate to?

Wind on either side of the center of circulation moving 180 degrees from each other. Indication of measurable rotation around that point.

E.g. easterly wind north of COC and westerly wind south of COC.


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[Steve]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=u_P_j8UG2-c

Joe B still doing some Euro chasing here but worried about pulling track east and implications.

[ColdMiser123]

Close to a 180 degree wind shift found near the MLC.

Ok novice here. What does that translate to?

So far, many of these low level centers recon has found are quite broad. This center had the sharpest wind direction change so far over a small distance, meaning if convection should develop nearby, it has a decent chance at becoming the dominant low level center.

[GCANE]

Now flying into that area of persistant convection.

[sphelps8681]

Close to a 180 degree wind shift found near the MLC.

Ok novice here. What does that translate to?

So far, many of these low level centers recon has found are quite broad. This center had the sharpest wind direction change so far over a small distance, meaning if convection should develop nearby, it has a decent chance at becoming the dominant low level center.

So where was the mlc located north closest to the coast or more south?

[fireitup]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=u_P_j8UG2-c

Joe B still doing some Euro chasing here but worried about pulling track east and implications.

Pulling east of New Orleans would take significant pressure off the Mississippi River levees!


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[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1149059283943903232

[HurricaneBrain]

Located at 27.5N, ~60 miles south of best track.

Ok novice here. What does that translate to?

So far, many of these low level centers recon has found are quite broad. This center had the sharpest wind direction change so far over a small distance, meaning if convection should develop nearby, it has a decent chance at becoming the dominant low level center.

So where was the mlc located north closest to the coast or more south?

[gulf701]

This is not a put down on government, just pure experience from Michael. If you are in the impact area, do not look to the government to take care of you. You had better be self sufficient for a minimum of 5 days. I would suggest 2 weeks or more. Government does not move that fast and FEMA is still trying to deal with all the disasters our GREAT nation has endured recently. I encourage everyone to access your risk (flooding, power loss, FOOD, WATER, etc.) and mitigate everything the best you can. Depending on others to take care of you could be a recipe for disaster for you and your love ones. If you are instructed to evacuate an area, common sense should lead you to assume help will be limited and slow because the ordered evacuation. Most likely on your own if you chose to not to evacuate. Duke Energy was absolutely a "text book" model for utility response and it still took 5 weeks to get power restored to our community which evolved a total infrastructure rebuild. Response and Recovery can be very uncertain during a major event. Good look to all and listen to your local authorities and do not take anything for chance.

[Steve]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=u_P_j8UG2-c

Joe B still doing some Euro chasing here but worried about pulling track east and implications.

Pulling east of New Orleans would take significant pressure off the Mississippi River levees!

For sure but he was more referring to GFS and hurricane models east than east of here.

[Aric Dunn]

That center pass looks solid. and within the developing convection and convergence. next pass should be telling.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I think it's safe to say these models dont have a clue. Legacy-GFS which we just changed from has it making landfall in Mississippi. Not really close to the current GFS. Euro is C La, and UKMet is south of Houston. Way too early to narrow this one down.

[cycloneye]

That center pass looks solid. and within the developing convection and convergence. next pass should be telling.

Agreed. Is the pass with the greatest signature so far.

[fireitup]

I think it's safe to say these models dont have a clue. Legacy-GFS which we just changed from has it making landfall in Mississippi. Not really close to the current GFS. Euro is C La, and UKMet is south of Houston. Way too early to narrow this one down.

This storm is still a mess for sure.


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[sphelps8681]

Jim Cantore spotted in Winnie, Tx.
https://www.facebook.com/waylon888/post ... 4843463839