ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Of course Recon has to have issues communicating now.... hopefully it's just communication and nothing serious

I am kinda worried.
The way that tower exploded, there has gotta be some serious updrafts.
They were flying low too, 850mb.

[xironman]

Amazing how quickly the UL winds became favorable starting this morning, the models didn't see that coming today, just to show you how unpredictable UL winds can become either in favor or against strengthening.

UL winds aren't gonna be a problem for a few days...Dry air is next

Dry air and shear to push into the envelope would do the trick.

[chris_fit]

Of course Recon has to have issues communicating now.... hopefully it's just communication and nothing serious

I am kinda worried.
The way that tower exploded, there has gotta be some serious updrafts.
They were flying low too, 850mb.

I thought that but didn't want to write it...

[NDG]

Amazing how quickly the UL winds became favorable starting this morning, the models didn't see that coming today, just to show you how unpredictable UL winds can become either in favor or against strengthening.

UL winds aren't gonna be a problem for a few days...Dry air is next

Dry air and shear to push into the envelope would do the trick.

Lol, dry air and shear were supposed to keep it at bay today.

[GCANE]

Outflow from the towers are obscuring the hole on IR.
Still has a nice donut on rain rate.

[sikkar]

Is it forming an eye feature in the center of the CDO?

[NDG]

Here we go, transmission started coming in, latest fix:

17:15:00Z 17.317N 65.933W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,557 meters
(~ 5,108 feet) 1005.8 mb
(~ 29.70 inHg)

[NDG]

They are not stupid, they went up to h85 prior to the latest pass.
Unflagged 40 knot SFMR

170630 1657N 06547W 8429 01557 0096 +144 +143 228044 046 047 029 00
170700 1658N 06548W 8405 01577 0094 +142 +142 230042 046 036 036 00
170730 1659N 06550W 8432 01549 0097 +144 +143 243034 039 047 034 03
170800 1700N 06551W 8442 01543 0097 +146 +144 250031 034 038 010 00
170830 1701N 06552W 8433 01553 0089 +157 +144 251021 027 040 007 00
170900 1702N 06553W 8419 01570 0094 +153 +144 253027 028 036 008 00
170930 1703N 06554W 8437 01549 0086 +163 +145 242027 029 033 010 03
171000 1705N 06555W 8434 01549 0083 +166 +146 219018 029 035 009 00
171030 1706N 06556W 8423 01566 0094 +154 +148 217012 014 032 006 03
171100 1706N 06556W 8423 01566 0095 +148 +147 246021 024 032 010 00
171130 1709N 06557W 8432 01550 0080 +165 +149 263014 021 043 014 00
171200 1711N 06558W 8438 01538 0085 +151 +148 259013 019 047 027 00
171230 1712N 06558W 8444 01537 0088 +148 +148 224004 010 048 026 03
171300 1714N 06559W 8414 01566 0077 +166 +148 137010 012 024 010 00
171330 1716N 06600W 8442 01540 0069 +181 +149 156010 012 020 001 03
171400 1717N 06559W 8424 01558 0064 +189 +153 161015 016 018 000 00
171430 1718N 06557W 8432 01550 0060 +195 +160 139015 016 019 000 00
171500 1719N 06556W 8425 01557 0058 +197 +168 137011 014 014 000 00
171530 1720N 06555W 8433 01548 0059 +194 +173 132009 010 013 000 00
171600 1720N 06555W 8433 01548 0059 +191 +180 144008 009 013 000 03
$$

[SFLcane]

Here we go, transmission started coming in, latest fix:

17:15:00Z 17.317N 65.933W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,557 meters
(~ 5,108 feet) 1005.8 mb
(~ 29.70 inHg)

Is that the center fix?

[NDG]

...KAREN SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS THE CENTER REFORMS A LITTLE TO THE WEST...


2:00 PM AST Tue Sep 24
Location: 17.5°N 66.0°W
Moving: N at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

[NDG]

Here we go, transmission started coming in, latest fix:

17:15:00Z 17.317N 65.933W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,557 meters
(~ 5,108 feet) 1005.8 mb
(~ 29.70 inHg)

Is that the center fix?

Yes, where they found the lowest pressure, 17.3N 65.9W

[chris_fit]

Well, that's not where I thought they would find it, lol

[Weatherboy1]

Well, there's our center reformation per the NHC. Not long before it has to deal with land/crossing Puerto Rico but certainly seems to be getting somewhat better organized as the day wears on ...

[ava_ati]

Well, there's our center reformation per the NHC. Not long before it has to deal with land/crossing Puerto Rico but certainly seems to be getting somewhat better organized as the day wears on ...

I know Levi was saying a storm that goes a little further west in the short term won't experience as much shear as a storm that is further right.

Models are going to have to play catchup with this storm.

[Aric Dunn]

Stronger system will also feel the ridging sooner. Likely meaning west sooner

[Jr0d]

I really have to give the NHC credit for continuing the TS warnings for PR and the Virgin Islands despite Karen's appearance yesterday.

This is shaping up to be a major flood event with damaging winds for the warning areas.

[GCANE]

Looking the way the donut is moving on rain-rate imagery, it may get close to moving thru the Mona Passage.

[chris_fit]

Looking the way the donut is moving on rain-rate imagery, it may get close to moving thru the Mona Passage.

No way, watch the Radar - don't see any hints of that happening

[Michele B]

Looks like Karen took offense to the comments earlier this morning and is bombing out now. Right before it crosses Puerto Rico too...

Is she really going to slice right across PR??

Those poor people can't do this....

<sigh>

[chaser1]

Stronger system will also feel the ridging sooner. Likely meaning west sooner

Add to that, any "potential" near-term drop in pressure too. That could also play a small role with short term motion as far as possible additional erratic motion or stall for a few hours. That hasnt really happened yet but boy.... that convection sure is firing up over and near center.