WPAC: KAMMURI - Post-Tropical

[doomhaMwx]

Now over the South China Sea. Nearly 24-hour passage over the Philippines.

[1900hurricane]

Looks like land passage has really took its toll on Kammuri unsurprisingly.

Regarding landfall intensity, due to deepening with the large core, I had a suspicion that pressure was not going to be as deep as its appearance suggested, and therefore the winds would be a little lower as well. That first suspicion seems to be well-founded as pressure observations supported 15 mb higher than JTWC's 12Z/landfall pressure of 943 mb at best. The lowest pressure I'm aware of was the 961.9 mb recorded by Josh Morgerman in Legazpi, so it might even be a stretch to estimate even a little below 960 mb.

However, while I am unaware of any good quality recorded wind data, accounts from both Josh Morgerman and James Reynolds seem to easily support at least a category 3 major typhoon landfall, with the possibility of JTWC's 115 kt not being so far-fetched in spite of the pressure. Maybe because in spite of the larger core, the entire circulation itself was actually a little more compact (excluding influence from the NE monsoon of course)? I'm curious in particular to how James thinks Kammuri compares to the core Lingling, a typhoon from earlier this season he intercepted that Ryukyu surface obs supported an intensity of ~110 kt +/-5 kt or so. Regardless, Kammuri was clearly a fairly potent system.





 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1201558039158902784



 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1201674584090501120



 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1201675334120173569

[Highteeld]

Kammuri broke a record
 https://twitter.com/wunderground/status/1201932821482242048

[aspen]

Kammuri broke a record
https://twitter.com/wunderground/status/1201932821482242048

Almost -110 C...good golly, that CCC was ridiculous. I think it neared the record for the largest CCC ever recorded.

[SconnieCane]

Kammuri broke a record
https://twitter.com/wunderground/status/1201932821482242048

Almost -110 C...good golly, that CCC was ridiculous. I think it neared the record for the largest CCC ever recorded.

If that thing had more time to consolidate and was maybe a little tighter around the core...

[Hayabusa]

It may have produced the coldest cloud tops on record but I think the persistent CCC really hindered it from consolidating more soon.

[1900hurricane]

I think the CCC should be looked at more as a symptom than the cause of Kammuri's delayed intensification. The system was taking on convergent easterly shear just below anvil level for multiple days, which I believe was the main issue and also led to the development and persistence of the CCC pattern.

[Hayabusa]

To be honest I'm not really that much in awe of that record, maybe if it was like;
"Kammuri (or Typhoon XXX) produced the coldest cloud tops on record in an eye pattern that caused ADT estimates to go unbelievably crazy"

Just imagine an eye pattern with an average surrounding cloud temp of -100+C, what raw T# would ADT produce? maybe T9.0?

[wxman57]

There's not much left of it now. All squalls have dissipated and its wind field is indistinguishable from the 35-40 mph NE monsoonal flow in the region.

[Hayabusa]

RSMC says still a TS

TS 1928 (Kammuri)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 5 December 2019

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 5 December>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°05' (13.1°)
E113°35' (113.6°)
Direction and speed of movement SSW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 280 km (150 NM)
SE 170 km (90 NM)

[Hayabusa]

Tropical Depression is not post-tropical

TD
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 5 December 2019

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 5 December>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N12°00' (12.0°)
E113°00' (113.0°)
Direction and speed of movement S 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1008 hPa

[aspen]

JMA: tracks a post-tropical remnant as a fully fledged TC

IMB: tracks fully fledged TC as a well-marked low pressure system

This is why we can’t have nice things.