ATL: BARRY - Models

[plasticup]

Interesting to see the models being so much more aggressive than the NHC's tame Category 1 prediction. I wonder what the forecasters see that the models do not.

[Blinhart]

https://giant.gfycat.com/IckyCompetentElectriceel.gif

That there would probably wipe out 5 to 10 miles of land in from the coast line, Kaplan would become a coastal town.

[wxman57]

I'm wiling to make a wager that the 12Z NAM doesn't verify. That's why it's not good to use the NAM for tropical cyclones.

[Siker]

I'm wiling to make a wager that the 12Z NAM doesn't verify. That's why it's not good to use the NAM for tropical cyclones.

So you're hugging the 3K then ?

[StormLogic]

NAM 32 and 12 both showing south central texas coast landfall
while NAM 3k still under LA heading WNW

[p1nheadlarry]

Alright y'all it's 3K NAM apocalypse time!

EDIT: Now a world record low pressure prediction.

https://i.imgur.com/tH5gYP6.png

Unrealistic, but has there ever been a sub 900 mb storm in the GOM? What about the Atlantic?

Wilma at 882mb. Rita might have been sub-900mb in the Gulf as well.

Forgot about Allen and Gilbert as well.

Rita yes, Gilbert and Wilma were in the W Carib

[MississippiWx]

12z GFS coming out now. Only out to 30 hours, but it's a little slower and stronger so far.

[p1nheadlarry]

Interesting to see the models being so much more aggressive than the NHC's tame Category 1 prediction. I wonder what the forecasters see that the models do not.

How long it's over the ocean as a closed low and how close to the coast plays a factor. Also it's fairly easy for certain terms in the equations to runaway with positive feedback, especially diabatic terms.

Also a good point made in the discussion forum is that they're still forecasting a hurricane in a few days out of a PTC, so not as conservative as they could have been

[davidiowx]

12z GFS coming out now. Only out to 30 hours, but it's a little slower and stronger so far.

Looks like the GFS initialized further N and a tad W of where the NHC has the center

[Frank P]

thru hour 60 12z GFS looks a tad east of the 06z run, and stronger.. lets see how it plays out

[Steve]

GFS looks to be holding serve at 60h. Whether it comes ashore or nudges west or wnw remains to be seen in the next few plots

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1012&fh=60

[MississippiWx]

12z GFS coming out now. Only out to 30 hours, but it's a little slower and stronger so far.

Looks like the GFS initialized further N and a tad W of where the NHC has the center

GFS looks about right. It's difficult to tell where a real "center" as most of what we see is still mid-level. 700mb Vort on the initial GFS frame is exactly where you see the main spin on visible.

[SoupBone]

12z GFS coming out now. Only out to 30 hours, but it's a little slower and stronger so far.

Looks like the GFS initialized further N and a tad W of where the NHC has the center

Bah, this is why the recon data is so important.

[Frank P]

h 72 nails SELA …

[mcheer23]

GFS shifts east, but it didn't initialize correctly.

[davidiowx]

I think we can toss that GFS run out the window.. Just my opinion of course..

[MississippiWx]

h 72 nails SELA …

12z GFS with another shift east. Brutal for Southeast LA and NOLA with a slow-moving, intensifying hurricane coming ashore.

[Blow_Hard]

h 72 nails SELA …

12z GFS with another shift east. Brutal for Southeast LA and NOLA with a slow-moving, intensifying hurricane coming ashore.

Wow...that run would be horrific for the Big Easy

[Frank P]

h 72 nails SELA …

12z GFS with another shift east. Brutal for Southeast LA and NOLA with a slow-moving, intensifying hurricane coming ashore.

MS coast get a little nasty and dirty weather as well, but if that comes to fruition, NOLA will be in serious flooding...

[wxman57]

12z GFS coming out now. Only out to 30 hours, but it's a little slower and stronger so far.

Looks like the GFS initialized further N and a tad W of where the NHC has the center

Bah, this is why the recon data is so important.

I doubt that today's recon (low-level invest) is going to provide any great insight. There's nothing out there to investigate yet. No circulation, no wind. Nothing useful for the models yet.