ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[Michele B]

I like gators post he is even minded, doesn't right off systems like others do just because they run into buzzsaw shear at times. We have seen numerous times both sides of the coin, where systems go "poof" and others like "Dorian" and maybe now with "Karen" ramp up fast. One thing for sure the shear in 24 hours went down alot, most of it east of Karen because of outflow from Jerry.

I gotta say this....and it's gonna sound like I'm anthropomorphizing these storms again....but!

It's almost like they "Take Revenge" for us discounting their ability to fight off unfavorable conditions and want to become monsters.

Dorian - now Karen. Both declared to be in their death throes more than once before bombing.

[Michele B]

Stronger system will also feel the ridging sooner. Likely meaning west sooner

So will that mean a GoM storm?

[Michele B]

PR Radar - not saved - live view....

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes

This is confusing to me. It almost looks like TWO CoC's! One south of PR, and one coming into Vieques from the SE....what am I seeing?

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like shes gping for the classic bounce around...

[Frank2]

This is confusing to me. It almost looks like TWO CoC's! One south of PR, and one coming into Vieques from the SE....what am I seeing?

Weak systems often have more than one center until they intensify, but this poorly organized storm might remain weak.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the center will go over the west side of Puerto Rico, quite a bit farther west than modeled

[Hammy]

PR Radar - not saved - live view....

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes

This is confusing to me. It almost looks like TWO CoC's! One south of PR, and one coming into Vieques from the SE....what am I seeing?

I believe that's the low and mid-level circulations, it's evident on satellite as well.

[Hurricaneman]

PR Radar - not saved - live view....

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes

This is confusing to me. It almost looks like TWO CoC's! One south of PR, and one coming into Vieques from the SE....what am I seeing?

I believe that's the low and mid-level circulations, it's evident on satellite as well.

The recon has this under the convection, might be just an eddy off to the NE

[GCANE]

New tower going up right at the last center fix
17.5N 66.0W

[ScottNAtlanta]

These small persistent systems that keep fighting and survive the most hostile conditions are the ones you really have to take note of. They are the ones that will take the quickest advantage when conditions improve...and we are seeing this now.

[northjaxpro]

Looks like the center will go over the west side of Puerto Rico, quite a bit farther west than modeled

Maybe, unless we see a jog more north/northwest late this afternoon into this evening., which is still possible.

[AJC3]

PR Radar - not saved - live view....

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes

This is confusing to me. It almost looks like TWO CoC's! One south of PR, and one coming into Vieques from the SE....what am I seeing?

I believe that's the low and mid-level circulations, it's evident on satellite as well.

Yeah, for sure that's a mid level feature that's moving NW toward the Mona Passage. Pretty sure it's a weakening MCV spawned by this morning's convective blowup that took place farther SE.

[AJC3]

Looks like the center will go over the west side of Puerto Rico, quite a bit farther west than modeled

Very doubtful, IMO. Regardless of the recent center reformation, the steering flow is still toward N/360, which would take the center over the east side of PR. Given that the center is already tucked into the convection pretty well, and the shear is weakening rapidly, I doubt we'll see a second reformation.

[wxman57]

Very odd wind structure, suggestive of multiple vortices. I saw one move NW past St. Croix this morning. Look at the obs across PR. They're not reflective of a center to the south of the island. Looks like another vortex north of PR. Radar loop suggests a center is consolidating south of eastern PR. I'll be glad to get rid of Karen...

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the center will go over the west side of Puerto Rico, quite a bit farther west than modeled

Very doubtful, IMO. Regardless of the recent center reformation, the steering flow is still toward N/360, which would take the center over the east side of PR. Given that the center is already tucked into the convection pretty well, and the shear is weakening rapidly, I doubt we'll see a second reformation.

Just have to watch out for the bounce around.. :p

[Aric Dunn]

Very odd wind structure, suggestive of multiple vortices. I saw one move NW past St. Croix this morning. Look at the obs across PR. They're not reflective of a center to the south of the island. Looks like another vortex north of PR. I'll be glad to get rid of Karen...

http://wxman57.com/images/Karen9.JPG

It is called turbulent flow.. very classic for the angle of approach to higher terrain.

[crownweather]

Very odd wind structure, suggestive of multiple vortices. I saw one move NW past St. Croix this morning. Look at the obs across PR. They're not reflective of a center to the south of the island. Looks like another vortex north of PR. Radar loop suggests a center is consolidating south of eastern PR. I'll be glad to get rid of Karen...

http://wxman57.com/images/Karen9.JPG

Karen would like to speak with the manager.

[SoupBone]

Very odd wind structure, suggestive of multiple vortices. I saw one move NW past St. Croix this morning. Look at the obs across PR. They're not reflective of a center to the south of the island. Looks like another vortex north of PR. Radar loop suggests a center is consolidating south of eastern PR. I'll be glad to get rid of Karen...

http://wxman57.com/images/Karen9.JPG

Is it going to spend any significant amount of time over Puerto Rico to disrupt it?

[AJC3]

Very odd wind structure, suggestive of multiple vortices. I saw one move NW past St. Croix this morning. Look at the obs across PR. They're not reflective of a center to the south of the island. Looks like another vortex north of PR. Radar loop suggests a center is consolidating south of eastern PR. I'll be glad to get rid of Karen...

http://wxman57.com/images/Karen9.JPG

My guess is that those winds are probably a function of both convective contamination from the squall band that recently moved through, plus some orographic influence by the Cordillera Central. Co-worker who used to be at NWS San Juan says the same thing. He saw some really funky stuff in the wind fields during Georges in '98.

[cycloneye]

We in PR dont view as key if there are 10+ centers but the most important hazard are the flooding rains that have begun with flooding reported and this rainy period will be here thru Wednesday.