ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Javlin]

Use the data from the air force plane I have it moving 16 miles in an hour and 20 minutes.

so that converts to what ? thank you

Pretty close to 12 mph.

And it was not suppose to pass 77.1 till 4PM about to do it in a couple of hrs the ridge is in place.

INIT 01/0900Z 26.4N 76.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 26.6N 77.1W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 26.7N 78.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 26.9N 78.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 27.0N 79.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 28.9N 79.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 31.8N 79.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 34.5N 76.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

[1900hurricane]

Even with the pressures getting down to a typical category 5 pressure, the winds are still overplaying expectations.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1168168561518501890

[AutoPenalti]

Pretty much the exact same postion of the ridging over the eastern US and the stalled trough over illinois.. everything is hold position except dorian that it..

https://imgshare.io/images/2019/09/01/2.gif

Is that trough not digging down???

[Patrick99]

Not a forecast, but when I look at the CIMSS loops I see the weakness, it dips down a little, retreats up a little....but doesn’t seem to move much from the Ark-La-Tex area. It’s as if the moisture surge is fighting it and, if not winning, at least pushing it to a stalemate. Is that weakness really going to get to where it needs to be by tomorrow?

[Aric Dunn]

Pretty much the exact same postion of the ridging over the eastern US and the stalled trough over illinois.. everything is hold position except dorian that it..

https://imgshare.io/images/2019/09/01/2.gif

Is that trough not digging down???

not yet..

[supercane4867]

NE-SW pass coming up. Could see 160kt at 11AM

[AutoPenalti]

Pretty much the exact same postion of the ridging over the eastern US and the stalled trough over illinois.. everything is hold position except dorian that it..

https://imgshare.io/images/2019/09/01/2.gif

Is that trough not digging down???

not yet..

The ridge is a lot stronger though. Look at the extension

[chris_fit]

Don't forget Charley - Wasn't it within like 12 hours that the track shift from Tampa to just W of Ft Myers?

[Ian2401]

getting really uneasy here in WPB. this storm is terrifying

[johngaltfla]

Pretty much the exact same postion of the ridging over the eastern US and the stalled trough over illinois.. everything is hold position except dorian that it..

https://imgshare.io/images/2019/09/01/2.gif

Is that trough not digging down???

Still blocked by the ridge. Ridge still extends through Western NC.

[supercane4867]

The town of Marsh Harbour(population 6K+) on the eastern tip of the Island is about to get wiped out

[eastcoastFL]

Starting to come into view on sfwmd radar

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 SEP 2019 Time : 135019 UTC
Lat : 26:32:59 N Lon : 76:37:12 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 942.2mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +19.8C Cloud Region Temp : -67.9C

Scene Type : EYE

[tigerz3030]

Here is Irma and what it did with “the cone”

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/I ... e_and_wind

[johngaltfla]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 SEP 2019 Time : 135019 UTC
Lat : 26:32:59 N Lon : 76:37:12 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 942.2mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +19.8C Cloud Region Temp : -67.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Looks like it is still intensifying. If I were to guess look for a peak near -75.0C as others have said.

[craptacular]

The town of Marsh Harbour(population 6K+) on the eastern tip of the Island is about to get wiped out

And that's where Josh Morgerman (iCyclone) just intentionally placed himself. Yikes.

[deltadog03]

Stronger ridging to the NW.
FL is sitting in a CAPE trough.
UL High over FL is not going away today.

https://i.imgur.com/6oL17BC.png

https://i.imgur.com/jYPn5oU.png

yeah and G4 data confirms the 592/591 ridge still in place as well as the 250mb steering.

wsw motion could happen at any time. not for sure but could.

I still have Dorian moving around 10 mph as well.

[StormPyrate]

May be just a wobble, but last few frames on slider seems a tiny north trend if you look at a straight line since sun rise

[La Sirena]

not like they can hop in a car and drive there

geez my bad...I thought you meant Florida's east coast...sorry!!!

That's okay, if I were on the east coast I would NOT head to Polk County or the Gulf Coast. There is no definitive idea where this storm will go or turn over the Peninsula if it makes landfall. Tallahassee and NW Florida might be a good bet, Dothan, AL, etc. better.

You had to bring Dothan into it lol. But, people here started prepping last week as a “just in case”. Last Wednesday they had almost wiped out all the generators from Sam’s Club.

[Aric Dunn]

Stronger ridging to the NW.
FL is sitting in a CAPE trough.
UL High over FL is not going away today.

https://i.imgur.com/6oL17BC.png

https://i.imgur.com/jYPn5oU.png

yeah and G4 data confirms the 592/591 ridge still in place as well as the 250mb steering.

wsw motion could happen at any time. not for sure but could.

I still have Dorian moving around 10 mph as well.

yeah it is 4 hours ahead of the 11pm advisory position last night.