ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

i bet this goes sub-900

At the rate Dorian is rapidly intensifying, it has a chance to get to near where Patricia in the Eastern Pacific a few years ago level, which I believe is the lowest pressure reading on this side of the hemisphere if I am not mistaken.

[wxman57]

With the NOAA plane I am still getting at least 12mph

Plane fixes may not be in the exact center. Beware!

[cjrciadt]

160 knots sustained?

https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/hurrica ... ussion.txt

Thats a typo, based off of a previous advisory (note the higher central pressure of 927mb; current pressure is around 920). Thats supposed to be 160mph

It looks like the forecasters had a freudian slip with the way things are now

160kts is low ball atm!!

[TheAustinMan]

Rarely do you ever see an eye this clear, and without low-level cloud eddies, even with storms of this intensity. Based on the latest data, Dorian is without historical parallel in this region of the Atlantic.

850 kB. Source: RAMMB

[FLpanhandle91]

AF302 right behind it about to make the same pass.

[skillz305]

11am advisory should be in soon

[StormPyrate]

26.48N 76.76W
913.0mb

Just half a hair north of due west.
Most likely just a wobble

it looked like it, but yeah could just be a wobble, dang it, I swore I would not do that.

[supercane4867]

Eye is really torching now on multiple bands. I'm expecting another 3-4 mb pressure drop this pass.

It actually maxed out the color scale on WV. What the hell????


https://i.imgur.com/75QmrJB.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/yVwcTZV.jpg

Holy crap. Is that on band 9? Band 8 has to be looking pretty toasty too, especially compared to the surrounding environment.

Here is the WV loop, you can atually see the eye turning from dark orange to grey. Don't think I've ever seen this before

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and08.html

[AutoPenalti]

Extrap 913mb

Noooo, it's tooo much, just insanity!!!

Is there a threshold where this storm just CANNOT get any stronger....is it even possible for it to go sub 900? I'm completely out of words for how Dorian looks.

I really hope the planet isn’t capable of that.

[hohnywx]

Last 3 hr movement 20.9nm = about 7 kts (8 mph), as measured on my workstation. Still slowing down, as predicted. Significant slowdown expected this evening.

Hasn’t it been moving at 8 mph for the past 12+ hours?

[Texashawk]

If I were anywhere near WPB I would be extraordinarily concerned right about now.

[skillz305]

Live on TWC they're not even verbally giving Dorian a chance to make landfall in FL.... How misleading...

[1900hurricane]

Rarely do you ever see an eye this clear, and without low-level cloud eddies, even with storms of this intensity. Based on the latest data, Dorian is without historical parallel in this region of the Atlantic.

850 kB. Source: RAMMB
https://i.imgur.com/bWjMX5I.png

Starting to look an awful lot like peak Rita '05. 30ºC eye watch is on.

[tropicwatch]

11am advisory should be in soon

They might wait for the AF pass.

[xironman]

With the NOAA plane I am still getting at least 12mph

Plane fixes may not be in the exact center. Beware!

True you have the tools I don't thanks for your update

[norva13x]

Noooo, it's tooo much, just insanity!!!

Is there a threshold where this storm just CANNOT get any stronger....is it even possible for it to go sub 900? I'm completely out of words for how Dorian looks.

I really hope the planet isn’t capable of that.

Wilma, Labor Day, Patricia etc, we have had sub 900 storms before.

[Yellow Evan]

Eyewall dropsonde recorded 176kt surface winds, which I believe is a new record for surface winds measured by drop.
I think those SFMR readings are valid. There was also 195kts measured not too far up from the surface with that drop.
I believe this is a 170kt hurricane. Absolutely unbelievable.

I'd want to see flight level winds much higher before going into uncharted waters like that. At this rate, who knows, maybe it will close off a CDG ring and end up like Haiyan or Patricia?

This doesn't even have a W ring... Eye temps could easily rival Patricia though.

[norva13x]

Noooo, it's tooo much, just insanity!!!

Is there a threshold where this storm just CANNOT get any stronger....is it even possible for it to go sub 900? I'm completely out of words for how Dorian looks.

I really hope the planet isn’t capable of that.

Wilma, Labor Day, Patricia etc, we have had sub 900 storms before.

[EquusStorm]

907 would surpass Maria and make it into the top ten all time lowest Atlantic pressures and we might well make it there. Certainly never seen anything like this outside the Caribbean or Gulf, now passing Irma quickly

[DestinHurricane]

Any live cams from the marsh harbor area right now?