ATL: BARRY - Models

[Pearl River]

I agree with MississippiWx. The 700mb vortex looks to have initialized about right on the 12z GFS.

[MississippiWx]

Looks like the GFS initialized further N and a tad W of where the NHC has the center

Bah, this is why the recon data is so important.

I doubt that today's recon (low-level invest) is going to provide any great insight. There's nothing out there to investigate yet. No circulation, no wind. Nothing useful for the models yet.

http://wxman57.com/images/92Le.JPG

Agreed. Believe most of what we see is still mid-level with a broad surface circulation. You can tell it is broad by just looking at the pressure patterns. Lots of 1012-1013mb readings over a wide area. A burst of convection is needed to help bring it to the surface which models show happening tonight into tomorrow.

[Frank P]

12z GFS legacy hammers the MS and AL coast,, pressure 978 mb… one thing I will say about both the GFS legacy and the ICON, they have been amazing consistent with their runs of late with this system...

[Siker]

UKMET west:

[SoupBone]

Bah, this is why the recon data is so important.

I doubt that today's recon (low-level invest) is going to provide any great insight. There's nothing out there to investigate yet. No circulation, no wind. Nothing useful for the models yet. A G-IV flight would be good, but none is scheduled that I've heard of.

http://wxman57.com/images/92Le.JPG

I'm amazed at how little time there will be between getting useful recon data, and this thing making landfall somewhere. This is about one of the toughest forecasts I've seen in quite some time.

Also, what in the world is the GFS Legacy picking up on that sends this to MS/AL?

[p1nheadlarry]

:uarrow: I agree with MississippiWx. The 700mb vortex looks to have initialized about right on the 12z GFS.

I've asked this before on here without getting an answer, but do they initialize vorticity or does it come from the initial conditions for u,v and h? Vorticity is calculated so they are not at the same location on a grid space (probably c-grid)

[Steve]

OG GFS still brings Barry in at the MS/AL border. Again, super good riddance.

ICON still SC LA at 72 hours
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1012&fh=72

JMA small reflection toward SW LA at 72 hours
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1012&fh=72

CMC should be next. HMON and HWRF show "no storms" as I'm assuming they're upgrading the feed or something from what was 92L (PTC2?) IDK

[BigB0882]

The UKMET is more in line with the 12k NAM more than any other model. Not sure what to think about that.

[MississippiWx]

UKMET west:

https://i.imgur.com/AvmWhp7.png

Pretty much the worst-case scenario for Houston. The UKMET just insists on this going west.

[p1nheadlarry]

Bah, this is why the recon data is so important.

I doubt that today's recon (low-level invest) is going to provide any great insight. There's nothing out there to investigate yet. No circulation, no wind. Nothing useful for the models yet.

http://wxman57.com/images/92Le.JPG

Agreed. Believe most of what we see is still mid-level with a broad surface circulation. You can tell it is broad by just looking at the pressure patterns. Lots of 1012-1013mb readings over a wide area. A burst of convection is needed to help bring it to the surface which models show happening tonight into tomorrow.

The process can be a slow one. Thermal wind response of having a mid level vort max and latent heat release is increased static stability just beneath it; takes time for mixing to reduce the vertical theta gradient to keep the profile conditionally unstable in the area.

[NDG]

Close up look of 12z GFS.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1148985308429594624

[MississippiWx]

Close up look of 12z GFS.

https://i.imgur.com/2Zyfal5.png

It actually strengthens further past this frame. Drops another 3mb. Kind of shows the favorable conditions Barry will have when it can still strengthen following landfall.That is always a subtle hint to look for in the models when determining the environment.

[NDG]

The UKMET for some reason has always been a west biased model. Didn’t it do the same thing last year with Michael if memory serves me correct?

[BigB0882]

UKMET west:

https://i.imgur.com/AvmWhp7.png

Pretty much the worst-case scenario for Houston. The UKMET just insists on this going west.

Houston would take a beating but that is almost as closer to Victoria as it is Houston. Of course, Houston is on the bad side and would have the surge. But to swing so far West as to the middle Texas coast is a surprise to me. Is it seeing this having no interaction with the trough?

[SoupBone]

The UKMET is either going to bust, badly, or reign king as it stands alone with a very west system.

[MississippiWx]

UKMET west:

https://i.imgur.com/AvmWhp7.png

Pretty much the worst-case scenario for Houston. The UKMET just insists on this going west.

Houston would take a beating but that is almost as closer to Victoria as it is Houston. Of course, Houston is on the bad side and would have the surge. But to swing so far West as to the middle Texas coast is a surprise to me. Is it seeing this having no interaction with the trough?

I have no idea what the UKMET sees. However, this solution is more believable than what it had been showing which was a due NW path straight through the middle of a 500mb ridge. I would expect it to dive WSW around the SE side of the Rockies ridge before turning back W and NW. This is quite the outlier, but still more believable than the path it was showing the last few runs.

[stormlover2013]

The UKMET is either going to bust, badly, or reign king as it stands alone with a very west system.

Rem euro ensembles were west like this on 00 run

[Steve]

The UKMET for some reason has always been a west biased model. Didn’t it do the same thing last year with Michael if memory serves me correct?

Sometimes it's ultra-right biased too. It's not just the landfall point this time, but it's also where it goes after. Last night's run was both the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma.

CMC at 48 is pretty far west and heading to SE TX or SW LA.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1012&fh=48

[Frank P]

Also, what in the world is the GFS Legacy picking up on that sends this to MS/AL?

The GFS Legacy has been pretty much consistent with its SELA/MS/AL coastal impacts.. Models are hard to understand period - with UKMET well west, which is a more reliable model, 3K NAM is now well west as the UKMET... not my go to hurricane model but interesting to see how it develops atmospheric conditions to support the forecast... if the Euro comes in more east this afternoon I would suspect a slight shift to the east with the cone.. if it stays on track or more west the cone could shift to the west based on the UKMET runs... regardless some of these models are going to miss the boat big time.. we are only 3 days out or so from a potential landfalling and the model differences are staggering... kinda of fun to watch though... regardless I don't see any really big changes with the cone at the next advisory