ATL: IMELDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[galaxy401]

Got a notification from my Weather app of a fatality in Texas.

Very unfortunate that this is becoming Harvey: The Sequel for many areas near Beaumont. Especially from a weak TS that only developed as it made landfall. Looks like the rain is finally starting to let up in some areas.

[Steve]

It looks like points farther south and west will get the action tonight. Hopefully it doesn’t last as long as last night’s training in and around Beaumont. We have to watch the next 3 hours or so and see if it keeps building and firing off along that line or what
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[1900hurricane]

Yep, flash flooding is appropriately named. Zero, to little warning.

Well, we have been under a Flash Flood watch for a couple of days. That's kinda the intent....you can't force people to take it seriously.

Also, the discussions from the WPC started laying this out last night. The HRRR models showed such a band for several consecutive runs. Those who were paying attention were not surprised at all.

No, I get that, I'm referring to location specific flash flooding. It's nearly impossible to pinpoint location based flash flooding, by its very definition. It's like tornadoes, we can say that the environment is ripe for them to form, but pinpointing their exact location is a fool's errand.

That is true to some extent, but this event was actually very well modeled by high resolution guidance. There was a rather strong signal a day in advance where the strongest totals would end up. I even singled out the four Counties of Chambers, Liberty, Jefferson, and Hardin by name yesterday before noon because the signal was so strong. The WPC even brought out the very rare High Risk of Excessive Rainfall about a day in advance over that very area.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1174693665731764224




 https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/1174351611201650688

[Craters]

Most of the models only have ranges up to "x" unless you get super high resolution/high detail versions. European did have some 30/40" areas in SE and E TX and I think began hinting at the potential catastrophe on Saturday or Sunday.

Steve -- When did you see those totals from the European, if I may ask? The highest I saw was in the vicinity of a little more than 20". That was on the weather.us site, which is the only non-subscription site I know for Euro precipitation info, so my access is kind of limited. I think it was on Monday morning when I saw them.

Thanks!

[Steve]

Yeah. It was Tuesday’s 00Z EC run which is on page 4 mobile on this thread posted by Tolakram at 9:41am Tuesday. The earlier runs did have 20ish which is why I said it was hinting at it.

[stormlover2013]

Hrr 00 just showed 6-8 inches around Beaumont and Hardin County area so we shall see in morning

[CrazyC83]

Hrr 00 just showed 6-8 inches around Beaumont and Hardin County area so we shall see in morning

If that occurs near Winnie, we'd top 50 inches there.

[setxsunshine]

Hrr 00 just showed 6-8 inches around Beaumont and Hardin County area so we shall see in morning

Is this for overnight tonight?

[stormlover2013]

Hrr 00 just showed 6-8 inches around Beaumont and Hardin County area so we shall see in morning

Is this for overnight tonight?

Yep in the morning

[Steve]

01Z HRRR has a worse setup than the 00z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2001&fh=-1

[wx98]

That looks like a nasty band on the HRRR over Beaumont and Port Arthur in the morning

[Craters]

I live 15 minutes from Beaumont and warned them about this on my webpage. Also posted on the Crystal Beach webpage. You can only do what you can do.

You're right. People often get mad at the NHC or whatever, "ZOMG! People are going to become complacent." But so many people already have their cliches ready from "they never come here" to "they always turn toward Florida at the last minute" to just generally ignoring things you'd think would be important - life and property. There is no answer because we've become a relatively dumb and soft nation of many know it alls who don't really know much of anything.

My mother-in-law used to work with a lady who moved out of Louisiana in 1999 because "there are too many hurricanes here." Where did she move? Coastal Florida. Hahaha

What we do know is in the last two years, South and Southeast Texas have had a bullseye for mega rain events. Hopefully these are isolated events in time and not some foreshadowing of many more events to come. I don't have an answer for that. I just hope that most everyone is okay and gets over the flooding a little quicker than last time. :/

Amen, Brother. Amen.

[Craters]

Yeah. It was Tuesday’s 00Z EC run which is on page 4 mobile on this thread posted by Tolakram at 9:41am Tuesday. The earlier runs did have 20ish which is why I said it was hinting at it.

Ah! Okay -- thanks!

Having our internet out at home for the last week hasn't helped much. Great bloody timing.

[Steve]

That looks like a nasty band on the HRRR over Beaumont and Port Arthur in the morning

More bark though as it breaks it up later. Idk.

[jasons2k]

I did hear from Southerngale. Houses in her neighborhood are flooding, but as of now her house is still OK. The nearby bayou is predicted to crest on the 21st. So it's a waiting game. They are stocked-up and prepared, and hoping it's not as bad as Harvey.

On another note: San Antonio is getting pounded tonight. They are not as equipped to handle so much rain in such a short period of time. So we've had the Houston, Beaumont, and San Antonio metro areas impacted by Imelda. Remarkable for a low-end TS. It illustrates that you don't need a hurricane or a 'major storm' to cause flooding issues.

[South Texas Storms]

I did hear from Southerngale. Houses in her neighborhood are flooding, but as of now her house is still OK. The nearby bayou is predicted to crest on the 21st. So it's a waiting game. They are stocked-up and prepared, and hoping it's not as bad as Harvey.

On another note: San Antonio is getting pounded tonight. They are not as equipped to handle so much rain in such a short period of time. So we've had the Houston, Beaumont, and San Antonio metro areas impacted by Imelda. Remarkable for a low-end TS. It illustrates that you don't need a hurricane or a 'major storm' to cause flooding issues.

Good to hear about southerngale, thanks for providing that update for us. Hopefully she escapes without any major issues from this storm.

People in San Antonio are actually quite happy and thankful for the rain tonight. They have been pretty dry so far this year and are running a rainfall deficit in 2019. They also hit 100 this afternoon, so Imelda actually brought some drought and heat relief tonight!

[stormlover2013]

I just don’t see the hrr verifying in the morning what do they pros think have y’all looked at it?

[jasons2k]

Sorry for the multiple posts, but I was away this evening and I'm just now catching-up.

The remnants of Imelda are definitely on the move. She's now moving up into far NE Texas, and approaching Oklahoma. This is good news is that it did not stall and take the hard left turn towards Groesbeck/Mexia as the WPC was forecasting yesterday. I do see that the inflow has shifted from the SW that was apparent earlier today to a more traditional SE, onshore flow. As the center pulls off to the north, the chances of additional banding and convergence zones is going to decrease. I think we've finally turned the corner and the focus will now shift to what's in the cards for next week.

[Steve]

In the cards for next week? Icon 18z is showing a similar innocuous low crossing to the western gulf and a bit farther south. It’s too early though. It showed the upper low with trailing surface trough that became Imelda, and this looks more like a singular low. High pressure centered over the Great Smoky Mountains with the western edge of the high in Texas and an upper low to the NW looks like a shot at something in the W/NW Gulf. Hopefully not.

[jabman98]

I did hear from Southerngale. Houses in her neighborhood are flooding, but as of now her house is still OK. The nearby bayou is predicted to crest on the 21st. So it's a waiting game. They are stocked-up and prepared, and hoping it's not as bad as Harvey.

Thanks for the update on Southerngale. Sounds like they have it all under control. Hopefully they'll escape with no flooding.

People in San Antonio are actually quite happy and thankful for the rain tonight. They have been pretty dry so far this year and are running a rainfall deficit in 2019. They also hit 100 this afternoon, so Imelda actually brought some drought and heat relief tonight!

My cousin in Austin texted me tonight to see how everything was with all the rain. Said she wishes they could have some of the rain. Been dry.