ATL: DORIAN - Models

[drewschmaltz]

Can we really trust the GFS when it keeps being right biased on the forecast track in the short term?

Its hard not to wonder the same thing. Well defined cat 5 storm with enormous about of recon data and the initialization is off? It's suppose to tell us what will happen in the future but it can't even accurately tell us what we already know?


I know the models are super complicated and I'm way over simplifying things. But, it's frustrating. Models have been off in the short term for much of Dorian's life. Or am I wrong?

[supercane4867]

looks slower and closer to the coast

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9be3f4ac0abdc9d4cb6c5e59b127e9e824d1a356490236a42baa51637d1f13bd.gif

It looks like you're comparing hour 48 to 54.

Yeah because 18z and 00z is 6 hours apart lol

[Raebie]

looks slower and closer to the coast

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9be3f4ac0abdc9d4cb6c5e59b127e9e824d1a356490236a42baa51637d1f13bd.gif

It looks like you're comparing hour 48 to 54.

Yeah because 18z and 00z is 6 hours apart lol

I need sleep. Carry on. Lol.

[Aric Dunn]

interesting the GFS is farther west up towards daytona area.... problem is dorian is not moving wnw from 00z.. ...

trash until next run.. maybe by then dorain will be moving wnw without a stall.. next run please..

[supercane4867]

Landfall or direct hit near Wilmington NC, could end up worse than Floyd

[TheDreamTraveler]

I wouldn't be surprised if the future runs of the models like the gfs and euro show this thing hugging closer to the coast and even effecting New England and Canada somewhat after North Carolina...just from what I've been seeing from past model runs. It's still a bit early to talk about that but it's starting to become a possibility as well.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I wouldn't be surprised if the future runs of the models like the gfs and euro show this thing hugging closer to the coast and even effecting New England and Canada somewhat after North Carolina...just from what I've been seeing from past model runs. It's still a bit early to talk about that but it's starting to become a possibility as well.

A model run of the GFS earlier today (12z I think) eventually turned Drian into an early-season blizzard for Labrador after slamming Nova Scotia, New Brunswick (my region although most effects appeared concentrated in the east, not the far west where I am) & Newfoundland Island.

[NDG]

Latest 0z GFS looks a lot like this morning's 06z run, bringing hurricane force winds from the immediate Treasure coast north to at least St Augustine.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Awfully close to the mid atlantic and new england...all it would take is a slight shift west for the effects to be felt harder.

[Aric Dunn]

This is not the right direction for every models except the euro and UKMET... lol.. it is very quickly separating from the next NHC forecast position..

[Tailspin]

Was not long ago EC/GFS dissipated this in the eastern caribbean.

[MrJames]

New UKM shifts west to line up with the rest.

[TheDreamTraveler]

lol

A few meteorologists have started talking about this potentially effecting new england so it's definitely believable that this happens. Of course that could depend a lot on how it interacts with Florida and North Carolina.

[shah83]

00z GFZ absolutely slams Nova Scotia with a extratropical hurricane Dorian.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

lol

https://i.imgur.com/UIDasvM.png

I'm under the orange to red precip in this graphic (I live right along the Maine/New Brunswick border. Good thing it is still so far out.

[TheDreamTraveler]

00z GFZ absolutely slams Nova Scotia with a extratropical hurricane Dorian.

Not just Nova Scotia but it looks like Maine too.

[hurricaneCW]

Awfully close to the mid atlantic and new england...all it would take is a slight shift west for the effects to be felt harder.

https://i.imgur.com/nM3Sn4d.png

I think the path will be very similar to a winter noreaster and it'll end up near the 40/70 benchmark with heavy rains, gusty winds for the coast. As a NJ resident I'm more excited about the huge swells as it heads out.

[sma10]

Ok ... so UKmet says Dorian will only reach 78.3 by 8am tomorrow morning. And 78.8 by 8am Tuesday morning.

Dorian better hit the thrust reversers

[NFLnut]

looks slower and closer to the coast

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9be3f4ac0abdc9d4cb6c5e59b127e9e824d1a356490236a42baa51637d1f13bd.gif

Granted, 5-10 miles here or there when it's riding the coast can be a lot but to me that doesn't look all that much closer. Just farther north. Just my $0.02.

[Ian2401]

Ok ... so UKmet says Dorian will only reach 78.3 by 8am tomorrow morning. And 78.8 by 8am Tuesday morning.

Dorian better hit the thrust reversers

looks like itll hit 78.3 in an hour or two