ATL: DORIAN - Models

[chris_fit]

Anyone have 06Z the Euro? I think it should be rolling by now...

Here was the 00Z - Looks like a W shift on the 06Z

[b0tzy29]

https://i.imgur.com/EmOmDn8.png
https://imgur.com/EmOmDn8
beta motion

That bend back toward Maine has me concerned.

[Emmett_Brown]

Thanks for posting the new Euro. 0Z and 6Z Euro very similar, with the slightest trend to the W in the first 48 hrs, bringing it a little closer to the Cape.

[seahawkjd]

Does the 6z Euro only run out to 84 hours?

[Emmett_Brown]

Does the 6z Euro only run out to 84 hours?

I think it goes to 90 hrs. My understanding is the 6Z and 18Z runs are shorter than the full 0Z and 12Z

[NDG]

06z Euro shows winds gusts in the 100-120 mph range in the Cape Canaveral area, hurricane force wind gusts to far eastern Orange and Seminole Counties.
Near 100 mph wind gusts from New Smyrna to Ormond Beach, in the immediate beach areas.

[Emmett_Brown]

06z Euro shows winds gusts in the 100-120 mph range in the Cape Canaveral area, hurricane force wind gusts to far eastern Orange and Seminole Counties.
Near 100 mph wind gusts from New Smyrna to Ormond Beach, in the immediate beach areas.

https://i.imgur.com/YfsI9dv.png
https://i.imgur.com/CT0nMwJ.png

Yep, and that's 48 hours out... still time for changes.

[DESTRUCTION5]

06z Euro shows winds gusts in the 100-120 mph range in the Cape Canaveral area, hurricane force wind gusts to far eastern Orange and Seminole Counties.
Near 100 mph wind gusts from New Smyrna to Ormond Beach, in the immediate beach areas.

https://i.imgur.com/YfsI9dv.png
https://i.imgur.com/CT0nMwJ.png

Have these for a little further down the coast?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Man this western trend is concerning

[NDG]

06z Euro shows winds gusts in the 100-120 mph range in the Cape Canaveral area, hurricane force wind gusts to far eastern Orange and Seminole Counties.
Near 100 mph wind gusts from New Smyrna to Ormond Beach, in the immediate beach areas.

https://i.imgur.com/YfsI9dv.png
https://i.imgur.com/CT0nMwJ.png

Have these for a little further down the coast?

60-70 mph wind gusts from Port St Lucie down to West Palm, from Stuart down to Port St Lucie 70-80 mph wind gusts.

[Ntxw]

What a devastating hurricane. Dorian is one of the most impressive storms I've followed in the western hemisphere, not just for being Cat 5 but the duration it has been able to sustain itself at such a relatively higher latitude than the deep tropics.

[DESTRUCTION5]

06z Euro shows winds gusts in the 100-120 mph range in the Cape Canaveral area, hurricane force wind gusts to far eastern Orange and Seminole Counties.
Near 100 mph wind gusts from New Smyrna to Ormond Beach, in the immediate beach areas.

https://i.imgur.com/YfsI9dv.png
https://i.imgur.com/CT0nMwJ.png

Have these for a little further down the coast?

60-70 mph wind gusts from Port St Lucie down to West Palm, from Stuart down to Port St Lucie 70-80 mph wind gusts.

https://i.imgur.com/5cQqAfj.png
https://i.imgur.com/xhGYYfs.png

Thanks...still nothing to sniff at . Surprised they still look that high being on West side.

[NDG]

Have these for a little further down the coast?

60-70 mph wind gusts from Port St Lucie down to West Palm, from Stuart down to Port St Lucie 70-80 mph wind gusts.

https://i.imgur.com/5cQqAfj.png
https://i.imgur.com/xhGYYfs.png

Thanks...still nothing to sniff at . Surprised they still look that high being on West side.

The euro shows an expanding windfield over the next 48 hours.

[otowntiger]

Man this western trend is concerning

I’m not seeing a trend- other than all models coming into very good agreement of no Florida landfall. I think the HWRF and HMON have also fallen in line with the others if I’m not mistaken. This close in that can provide good deal of confidence. Of course it is possible to change but there is lots of reason for guarded optimism. Of course damaging effects will still be felt on the coast in the form of high surf, storm surge and strong wind.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Man this western trend is concerning

I’m not seeing a trend- other than all models coming into very good agreement of no Florida landfall. I think the HWRF and HMON have also fallen in line with the others if I’m not mistaken. This close in that can provide good deal of confidence. Of course it is possible to change but there is lots of reason for guarded optimism.

No its definately a westward trend since saturday

[LarryWx]

Anyone have 06Z the Euro? I think it should be rolling by now...

https://i.imgur.com/sIaVCcX.png



Here was the 00Z - Looks like a W shift on the 06Z

https://i.imgur.com/4lI8xbT.png

But notice that both of these Euro runs have him get to almost the western tip of Grand Bahama Island before the NNW turn. That’s about 35 miles west of where he is now. I want to see if he resumes westward motion to go close to those 35 miles west. If he instead is about as far west as he’s going to get on that island, then his actual track will clearly be east of these Euro runs in that area, which should have good implications for FL and GA at the least and probably also for lower SC.

[jhpigott]

Anyone have 06Z the Euro? I think it should be rolling by now...

https://i.imgur.com/sIaVCcX.png



Here was the 00Z - Looks like a W shift on the 06Z

https://i.imgur.com/4lI8xbT.png

But notice that both of these Euro runs have him get to almost the western tip of Grand Bahama Island before the NNW turn. That’s about 35 miles west of where he is now. I want to see if he resumes westward motion to go close to those 35 miles west. If he instead is about as far west as he’s going to get on that island, then his actual track will clearly be east of these Euro runs in that area, which should have good implications for FL and GA at the least and probably also for lower SC.

Agreed. Doesn't look like Dorian is going to make it all the way to the west end of Grand Bahama before pulling north of the island.

[p1nheadlarry]

Anyone have 06Z the Euro? I think it should be rolling by now...

https://i.imgur.com/sIaVCcX.png



Here was the 00Z - Looks like a W shift on the 06Z

https://i.imgur.com/4lI8xbT.png

But notice that both of these Euro runs have him get to almost the western tip of Grand Bahama Island before the NNW turn. That’s about 35 miles west of where he is now. I want to see if he resumes westward motion to go close to those 35 miles west. If he instead is about as far west as he’s going to get on that island, then his actual track will clearly be east of these Euro runs in that area, which should have good implications for FL and GA at the least and probably also for lower SC.

This being said, remember that Dorian could easily stair-step and still get as close, especially if beta gyration is a primary steering influence early on in the shift to the poleward track.

[LarryWx]

https://i.imgur.com/sIaVCcX.png



Here was the 00Z - Looks like a W shift on the 06Z

https://i.imgur.com/4lI8xbT.png

But notice that both of these Euro runs have him get to almost the western tip of Grand Bahama Island before the NNW turn. That’s about 35 miles west of where he is now. I want to see if he resumes westward motion to go close to those 35 miles west. If he instead is about as far west as he’s going to get on that island, then his actual track will clearly be east of these Euro runs in that area, which should have good implications for FL and GA at the least and probably also for lower SC.

This being said, remember that Dorian could easily stair-step and still get as close, especially if beta gyration is a primary steering influence early on in the shift to the poleward track.

That’s possible but only a possibility. From my GA perspective and besides being better for Grand Bahama Island, itself, I’d MUCH prefer he not go further west than he is on Grand Bahama as that increases the chance for Dorian not getting as far west vs the chance if he were to first go straight west to the western end of the island. If he goes straight west to there, he’d be 35 miles closer to FL as he starts his NNW track. If I were in the Cape Canaveral to Charleston corridor, I’d much rather take my chances on him being 35 miles further away from FL at the start of the NNW track.

[jhpigott]

Wowzers - 12z NAM has Dorian sitting over Grand Bahama for another 36 hours