ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Ubuntwo]

And poof its gone on EURO 0z

What? the 0z euro had it stronger than the 12z

[Astromanía]

The end of the GFS sure was interesting

https://i.imgur.com/Ld72CgC.png

Again a model that shows a treat for northeast Mexico, especifically Matamoros area again , mmm we will see with time if this really develop like that but that track is possible as we have seen before so I will follow this system close for its potential treat to northeast Mexico and southtexas for now.

[somethingfunny]

The end of the GFS sure was interesting

https://i.imgur.com/Ld72CgC.png

Seems unlikely given the time of year for that track.

I remember someone on this forum way back in 2008 said something similar and was never able to live it down

[bamajammer4eva]

Any chance this doesn't even make it to the gulf at all! Deep trough/first cold front of the season comes to the Gulf coast before labor day! First cold front means your season is done so they say! By Friday, this system should be near Cuba as those of us on the Gulf Coast are chilling! Could the models turn it? We'll See!

[gatorcane]

00Z UKMET tracks this into the Bahamas but keeps it weak:

[caneman]

Any chance this doesn't even make it to the gulf at all! Deep trough/first cold front of the season comes to the Gulf coast before labor day! First cold front means your season is done so they say! By Friday, this system should be near Cuba as those of us on the Gulf Coast are chilling! Could the models turn it? We'll See!

https://i.imgur.com/FWQP1tO.png

The chances of that verifying this time of year and especially for Florida are somewhere between zero and none.

[Emmett_Brown]

If you look at the shear and humidity on the 6z GFS at 120 hours, the conditions are marginal (air still a bit dry, some shear from a string of small ULLs). However, there is no huge Tutt there, the shear that is there is propagating westward with the storm, and the dry dusty atmosphere is actually moderating at that time. So while conditions are not ideal for strengthening... I could see this holding together assuming it develops in the first place and stays away from land.

[Blown Away]

12z model suite inches farther N near Hispaniola... See if it’s a trend...

[Frank2]

Not showing up on the 12Z GFS...

[floridasun78]

WHY is nhc saying going hurr by PR and models are kiss it bye????? WX say nhc got it wrong

[seahawkjd]

Not showing up on the 12Z GFS...

12Z GFS looks like it gets to the Lesser Antilles and falls apart.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z HWRF near identical to the NHC forecast.

12z HMON keeps it weaker, but strengthens it to a moderate TS in the Caribbean.

[hohnywx]

WHY is nhc saying going hurr by PR and models are kiss it bye????? WX say nhc got it wrong

Because it’s meteorology, not modelology.

[AtlanticWind]

Euro a little stronger on 12z run

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Falls apart over the Caribbean before dying over Hispaniola on this run.

[chris_fit]

Through 168 - Makes it through the Caribbean but falls apart in the Bahamas

[AutoPenalti]

Is that further north than the 0z?

[Hammy]

Is that further north than the 0z?

Looks it, also a bit stronger.