ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

LL vort is in the Windward Passage.
Dominant inhibiting feature is the ULL / Trough to its NW.
ULL is expected to move quickly to the west and LL vort drift slowly along Cuba north shore.
Conditions should improve today for intensification.
I expect popup afternoon thunderstorms over Cuba which should add mid-level moisture to 95L tonight allowing further intensification.
Currently getting hot towers firing in the Windward Passage along Haiti's shore.

[Aric Dunn]

LL vort is in the Windward Passage.
Dominant inhibiting feature is the ULL / Trough to its NW.
ULL is expected to move quickly to the west and LL vort drift slowly along Cuba north shore.
Conditions should improve today for intensification.
I expect popup afternoon thunderstorms over Cuba which should add mid-level moisture to 95L tonight allowing further intensification.
Currently getting hot towers firing in the Windward Passage along Haiti's shore.

That little vort in between hati and cuba is likely land induced.

But just north of the eastern side of cuba you can see an actual circ starting to form.

[tgenius]

Aric you biting on the Euro with a weak TS for SFL this weekend?

[Aric Dunn]

6z euro. Ts into miami again. In 80 hours

[Aric Dunn]

Aric you biting on the Euro with a weak TS for SFL this weekend?

See no reason why we couldnt have a sheared TS in the next couple days.

[GCANE]

LL vort is in the Windward Passage.
Dominant inhibiting feature is the ULL / Trough to its NW.
ULL is expected to move quickly to the west and LL vort drift slowly along Cuba north shore.
Conditions should improve today for intensification.
I expect popup afternoon thunderstorms over Cuba which should add mid-level moisture to 95L tonight allowing further intensification.
Currently getting hot towers firing in the Windward Passage along Haiti's shore.

That little vort in between hati and cuba is likely land induced.

But just north of the eastern side of cuba you can see an actual circ starting to form.

https://i.ibb.co/G2MYqbF/Screenshot-20190911-084120-Firefox.jpg

Nice catch Aric, I wasn't looking that far west. Thanks

[Aric Dunn]

LL vort is in the Windward Passage.
Dominant inhibiting feature is the ULL / Trough to its NW.
ULL is expected to move quickly to the west and LL vort drift slowly along Cuba north shore.
Conditions should improve today for intensification.
I expect popup afternoon thunderstorms over Cuba which should add mid-level moisture to 95L tonight allowing further intensification.
Currently getting hot towers firing in the Windward Passage along Haiti's shore.

That little vort in between hati and cuba is likely land induced.

But just north of the eastern side of cuba you can see an actual circ starting to form.

https://i.ibb.co/G2MYqbF/Screenshot-20190911-084120-Firefox.jpg

Nice catch Aric, I wasn't looking that far west. Thanks

Question is.. will it be able to establish itself enough before the land heating rips it apart later.

If it cant. Then will have to wait for the overnight again.

If it holds on then further development before flirida is likely.

[GCANE]

That little vort in between hati and cuba is likely land induced.

But just north of the eastern side of cuba you can see an actual circ starting to form.

https://i.ibb.co/G2MYqbF/Screenshot-20190911-084120-Firefox.jpg

Nice catch Aric, I wasn't looking that far west. Thanks

Question is.. will it be able to establish itself enough before the land heating rips it apart later.

If it cant. Then will have to wait for the overnight again.

If it holds on then further development before flirida is likely.

Quite a bit of directional shear and mid-level dry air with this one.
I think its too close to the UL Trough.

[GCANE]

Watching area around 22.5N 73.7W
Good LL convergence and center of 500mb vort
Some good cum nimb development here.

[Stormcenter]

NHC’s cone area for development has shifted west and
south as of the 7am update.

[GCANE]

Scanned around the area and the lowest shear is the Windward Passage at about 5 knots with air saturated thru the mid-levels.
Convection continues to fire with heavy lightning.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1171778186721603589

[Frank P]

Good find on the little LLC trying to form Aric... but shear is blasting off the tops of the convection near the LLC hard to the NE... not sure if it will survive and/or how many more little LLCs 95L will spit out in the development stage... regardless interesting to watch it on the sat loops!

[NDG]

I agree with Aric, there’s a weak LLC off of the Cuban coast this morning.

[Emmett_Brown]

Whatever forms is likely to be lopsided at first... winds could be displaced well to the NE because of the shear and steep pressure gradient to the N of the system. So, if a TS forms, the TS winds could be felt a bit further to the N and E than with a typical TC. Once it gets into the GOM... it will probably tighten up a bit.

[Aric Dunn]

Good find on the little LLC trying to form Aric... but shear is blasting off the tops of the convection near the LLC hard to the NE... not sure if it will survive and/or how many more little LLCs 95L will spit out in the development stage... regardless interesting to watch it on the sat loops!

Yeah for sure. Likely will have this thing reform, get pulled in every direction with every convective burst... the happy life of a sheared system. But i dont think the shear will be enough to stop it from developing sooner rather than later.
Sheared mess into florida likely reforning NE a couple times then after that in the gulf... who knows ? Conditions look 50/50 for intensifying

[GCANE]

Watching area around 22.5N 73.7W
Good LL convergence and center of 500mb vort
Some good cum nimb development here.

A number of small overshooting tops firing off in this area with some twist to them.

[tpr1967]

Watching area around 22.5N 73.7W
Good LL convergence and center of 500mb vort
Some good cum nimb development here.

I think GCANES Idea of something trying to develop near 500MB center looks good.

[Aric Dunn]

Watching area around 22.5N 73.7W
Good LL convergence and center of 500mb vort
Some good cum nimb development here.

A number of small overshooting tops firing off in this area with some twist to them.

https://i.imgur.com/KQe0UXG.png

Yeppers. Anywhere in the area from cuba north to where you circled east or west could see a reform or circ tighten up.

Essentially wherever convection develops in any sustained fashion. Possibly even end of with multiple vorts.

The one to the south is slowly becoming more defined and vort near your area could happen at anytime as well with that convection.

The process has begun to fully close off the windfield

[GCANE]

Big blowup east of Aric's swirl.