WPAC: HALONG - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#61 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:19 am

Hayabusa wrote::double: thanks to that -80C+ convection, now if eye can go to the positives while maintaining that very cold convection

2019NOV04 134000 4.7 967.2 82.2 4.7 4.7 7.3 MW ON OFF OFF OFF OFF -27.80 -83.48 EYE/P -99 IR 44.8 18.65 -152.62 FCST HIM-8 25.7


I wouldn’t be surprised if raw T’s hit or surpass 7.5 once the eye gets to >0 C.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#62 Postby Highteeld » Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:43 am

What's a tropopause, and where can I find one?
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#63 Postby Highteeld » Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:49 am

Highteeld wrote:What's a tropopause, and where can I find one?
https://i.imgur.com/dKay9Fn.png

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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#64 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:57 am

I'm surprised to see ADT getting those eye temperatures. The warm spot on IR doesn't look any colder than -50ºC to me on both full disk and mesoscale floater imagery.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#65 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:13 am

Highteeld wrote:
Highteeld wrote:What's a tropopause, and where can I find one?
https://i.imgur.com/dKay9Fn.png

https://i.imgur.com/uaOEikD.png


Wow - TP at 90mb with temp of -90°C
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#66 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:15 am

Highteeld wrote:What's a tropopause, and where can I find one?
https://i.imgur.com/dKay9Fn.png

The location is up in the air.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#67 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:17 am

1900hurricane wrote:I'm surprised to see ADT getting those eye temperatures. The warm spot on IR doesn't look any colder than -50ºC to me on both full disk and mesoscale floater imagery.

ADT eye temps appear to have corrected. Eye temps are around -55ºC, which appears consistent with actual IR imagery. Raw at 6.4.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 NOV 2019 Time : 154000 UTC
Lat : 18:32:59 N Lon : 152:33:43 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.9 / 963.3mb/ 87.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.9 5.9 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -54.2C Cloud Region Temp : -79.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 105nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1004mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.6 degrees

****************************************************
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#68 Postby Highteeld » Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:17 am

MG embedded in W ~ T 6.0

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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#69 Postby Highteeld » Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:28 am

Eye is really starting to pop through, might be bombing out right now

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Image
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#70 Postby Highteeld » Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:39 am

Highteeld wrote:Eye is really starting to pop through, might be bombing out right now

https://i.imgur.com/kJFvCQC.png
https://i.imgur.com/O8uDQOh.png

Four DG pixels coming through, eye continues to warm

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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#71 Postby Highteeld » Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:58 am

Highteeld wrote:
Highteeld wrote:Eye is really starting to pop through, might be bombing out right now

https://i.imgur.com/kJFvCQC.png
https://i.imgur.com/O8uDQOh.png

Four DG pixels coming through, eye continues to warm

https://i.imgur.com/7licAGc.png

and now we have off white
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#72 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 04, 2019 12:18 pm

Highteeld wrote:Eye is really starting to pop through, might be bombing out right now

https://i.imgur.com/kJFvCQC.png
https://i.imgur.com/O8uDQOh.png


It definitely looks like it’s bombing. Dvorak estimates are starting to skyrocket and the eye continues to warm. It kind of reminds me of Michael on the morning of its Florida landfall, before the eye acquired that typical Cat 5 look.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#73 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 04, 2019 12:36 pm

The eye is clouding a bit, but that’s because the impressively deep CDG convection is wrapping around the center more. I think Halong could be on the verge of Cat 4 status by now.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#74 Postby Highteeld » Mon Nov 04, 2019 12:37 pm

aspen wrote:The eye is clouding a bit, but that’s because the impressively deep CDG convection is wrapping around the center more. I think Halong could be on the verge of Cat 4 status by now.

Probably in the awkward stage where FL winds are yoked but not mixing down quite yet. Would guess something like 140/110 fl/sfc ~
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#75 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 04, 2019 1:04 pm

Convection of <=-85 C now completely surrounds the center of Halong. Once its eye finally clears out, a 150+ kt storm is a real possibility.

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/ ... rnerds.png
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#76 Postby Highteeld » Mon Nov 04, 2019 1:42 pm

Hwrf trending more aggressive in the short term

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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#77 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Nov 04, 2019 1:51 pm

TY 1923 (Halong)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 4 November 2019

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 4 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N18°50' (18.8°)
E152°20' (152.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 440 km (240 NM)
SW 280 km (150 NM)
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#78 Postby Highteeld » Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:09 pm

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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#79 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:10 pm

Highteeld wrote:Hwrf trending more aggressive in the short term

https://i.imgur.com/EOUwOYZ.png


Those are 180 kt winds at the 850 mbar level. I don’t know exactly what they would translate to at sea level, but it’s definitely within Cat 5 territory. I wouldn’t be too surprised if Halong tried to get to 180 kt winds based on its current satellite appearance, although a peak of 150-160 kt seems more likely.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#80 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:17 pm

24W HALONG 191104 1800 18.7N 152.3E WPAC 105 949

TPPN11 PGTW 041845

A. TYPHOON 24W (HALONG)

B. 04/1750Z

C. 18.72N

D. 152.13E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. LG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 6.0 MET 5.5 PT 6.0
DBO DT. BROKE CONTRAINTS

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


STIGSSON
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