WPAC: FENGSHEN - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

Nice looking Cat 1

Seriously, I think this is a major now

[Hayabusa]

Heh already exceeded JMA's first forecast peak

TY 1925 (Fengshen)
Issued at 03:45 UTC, 15 November 2019

<Analysis at 03 UTC, 15 November>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N19°35' (19.6°)
E143°05' (143.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 100 km (55 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 15 UTC, 15 November>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N21°30' (21.5°)
E142°10' (142.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 50 km (25 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 150 km (80 NM)

<Forecast for 03 UTC, 16 November>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N23°50' (23.8°)
E143°20' (143.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 17 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N25°20' (25.3°)
E148°40' (148.7°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 170 km (90 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 240 km (130 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 18 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N23°25' (23.4°)
E148°55' (148.9°)
Direction and speed of movement S Slow
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 19 November>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N23°55' (23.9°)
E143°20' (143.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 1010 hPa
Radius of probability circle 480 km (260 NM)

[1900hurricane]

85 kt is JMA's T5.5 equivalent, which looks pretty good to me right now. I'm curious to see what it does overnight.

[mrbagyo]

[1900hurricane]

Just saw this, but JTWC opted to use only low end guidance for their 00Z intensity? Very unusual reasoning, which is especially highlighted with ADT and SATCON up near 110 kt now at about 06Z. 85 kt was probably a decent compromise intensity between high and low for 00Z.

WDPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (FENGSHEN)
WARNING NR 015//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 26W (FENGSHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 263 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A NEWLY FORMED EYE WITH WARMING IN THE CENTER. THE EYE
IN THE MSI LOOP SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH EXCELLENT
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON
THE NEWLY FORMED EYE, IN LINE WITH RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS) AND A 150015Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ESTIMATE OF T4.4 (75 KTS). THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.0 (90 KTS)
AND A 142147Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 86 KTS ARE ABOVE THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE, BUT THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE TIME TO SPIN UP THE
TANGENTIAL CIRCULATION. TY 26W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-29C) AND MODERATE WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TY 26W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. WIND RADII WERE
ADJUSTED USING A 142356Z METOP-A BULLSEYE ASCAT PASS.
B. TY 26W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY RECURVE AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD STR AFTER TAU 12. THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE UP AS MODELS INCREASE THE ALONG-TRACK SPEED. LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND IMPROVING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AS IT TAPS INTO A PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH
WILL LIKELY FUEL STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24 WITH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS EXPECTED AT TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, A WEAKENING
TREND WILL BEGIN AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES UNDER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS OVERALL
SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 48 IN CROSS-TRACK SPREAD, BUT THERE ARE STILL
SIGNIFICANT ALONG-TRACK SPEED DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS,
LENDING POOR CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
QUICKLY UNDER STRONG (40 TO 50 KNOTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE CONVECTION WILL BE SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE PRIMARY
STEERING INFLUENCE WILL SHIFT TO A LOW-LEVEL HIGH THAT IS FORECAST
TO BUILD TO THE NORTH AFTER TAU 48, STEERING THE REMNANT LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF TY 26W BACK TO THE WEST. NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE WITH
THIS OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO, BUT VARY IN THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THE
RATE OF WEAKENING AND EXACT TRACK DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NAVGEM
REFLECTS THE QUICKEST TURN TO THE SOUTH. ECMWF, NAVGEM, AND GFS ARE
TO THE INSIDE OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, ALTHOUGH GFS CLOSELY
AGREES WITH THE CONSENSUS ABOUT ALONG-TRACK SPEED. GALWEM HAS
SHIFTED TO BE FASTER THAN THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS, BUT IS STILL A
WESTERN OUTLIER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD
DUE TO ACCELERATED ALONG-TRACK MOTION. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE SOUTHWARD TURN AND
ALONG-TRACK SPEED IN LATER TAUS.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

Hugging that -2 Sigma on SATCON.

26W FENGSHEN 191115 0600 20.1N 142.7E WPAC 95 966

[aspen]

Hugging that -2 Sigma on SATCON.

26W FENGSHEN 191115 0600 20.1N 142.7E WPAC 95 966

How much worse can the JTWC get? This is easily a high end Cat 3 at the least, most likely a 4. Unfortunately, an EWRC appears to be starting, so officially it will never reach that intensity.

[WAcyclone]

SMAP pass from earlier today:

[Hayabusa]

26W FENGSHEN 191115 1200 21.1N 142.2E WPAC 110 952

[aspen]

26W FENGSHEN 191115 1200 21.1N 142.2E WPAC 110 952

Better late than never

[mrbagyo]

Fengshen has successfully completed an EWRC

[Highteeld]

Fengshen has successfully completed an EWRC

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc19/WPAC/26W.FENGSHEN/tc_ssmis/91h/1degreeticks/20191115.2135.f17.x.91h_1deg.26WFENGSHEN.110kts-952mb-225N-1425E.085pc.jpg

That SSMIS image has a pretty strong estimated pressure/wind, too.

SSMIS: 953.0 hPa 119.0 knots Date: 11152135

[1900hurricane]

I'm not sure how well it can hold itself with the wall of shear just to the north, but if it manages to stay just to the south, it's not impossible that Fengshen could pull some Songda '16 type shenanigans as it begins to shoot off to the northeast.

[Hayabusa]

26W FENGSHEN 191116 1800 26.7N 149.3E WPAC 100 955

TY 1925 (Fengshen)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 16 November 2019

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 16 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N26°35' (26.6°)
E149°10' (149.2°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 45 km/h (23 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 330 km (180 NM)
SE 280 km (150 NM)

[1900hurricane]

I'm not sure how well it can hold itself with the wall of shear just to the north, but if it manages to stay just to the south, it's not impossible that Fengshen could pull some Songda '16 type shenanigans as it begins to shoot off to the northeast.

It tried for a little, but it's clearly succumbing to shear now.

[Hayabusa]

STS 1925 (Fengshen)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 17 November 2019

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 17 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N26°55' (26.9°)
E155°10' (155.2°)
Direction and speed of movement E 50 km/h (27 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 60 km (30 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 330 km (180 NM)
SE 280 km (150 NM)

[Hayabusa]

TS 1925 (Fengshen)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 17 November 2019

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 17 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N26°20' (26.3°)
E156°40' (156.7°)
Direction and speed of movement E 45 km/h (23 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 280 km (150 NM)

[Hayabusa]

TD
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 17 November 2019

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 17 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N25°00' (25.0°)
E158°00' (158.0°)
Direction and speed of movement SE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa