ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hipshot]

I hope Jim Edds who went to Elbow Cay thinking that the eye was going to go north of him not thinking that it would go directly over him is OK and alive, the eye right over the Cay right now, he has not reported on twitter in over 3 hours now.

https://i.imgur.com/BgDJvZA.gif

Are my eyes playing with me or has that slowed down considerably...?

According to recon it's still moving west at 8 mph. Don't see much change there. If it doesn't slow
down and turn more north over night, all hell is going to break loose.

[Blinhart]

What a 25ft storm surge can do to the Abaco Islands. All area in green would be inundated

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dd8dc0b84af7d8f72488d60d0a8c27be1c6d6877b9ed2b1fc32f5bc6d5ef2874.png

And imagine 15 to 30 foot waves pounding down on top of that surge for hours on end, total devastation.

[supercane4867]

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1245 pm EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN MAKES LANDFALL ON ELBOW CAY IN THE
ABACOS...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
satellite data indicate that Dorian has made landfall at 1240 pm
EDT (1640 UTC) in Elbow Cay, Abacos. The winds have increased
to 185 mph (295 km/h) with the minimum central pressure falling to
911 mb (26.90 inches).

This is a life-threatening situation. Residents there should take
immediate shelter. Do not venture into the eye if it passes over
your location.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 220 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas
and will continue for several hours.


SUMMARY OF 1245 PM EDT...1645 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Avila/Blake


160kt landfall. This is official

[underthwx]

Will Dorians sustained winds rise even more?...190, or above?...is it possible?

[La Sirena]

I never thought I would live to see Labor Day 35 matched. There are no words.

Agreed....I thought that every time I went to the mainland when we lived in the Keys and you pass the monument.

[Stangfriik]

Hurricane Dorian’s max potential has been realized... this is a very scary situation for the Bahamas. I never thought I’d see it reach anywhere near this intensity

you sure? still on path to go over the Gulf Stream...

I just asked this on Twitter. What's s gonna happen once it reaches that?

[aperson]

Does anyone have a link they will share to closeup satellite loops with latitude and longitude lines? I've been googling like crazy and can't find any although I've seen a few loops posted here as attachments. Thanks in advance.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

You can click on the globe on the left and go to mapping -> latitude and longitude to enable it.

[supercane4867]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1168206235201626114

[underthwx]

Can a cyclone of Dorian's magnitude, be unaffected by the forecast steering patterns, and defy the projected forecast track?

[TheProfessor]

Well then, at lot has happened since I went to bed last night.

[johngaltfla]

Can a cyclone of Dorian's magnitude, be unaffected by the forecast steering patterns, and defy the projected forecast track?

Theoretically yes. But it's a debate that will be hashed out a million times more until scientific measurements validate the theory. I think the theory is valid, but with this storm, it will be a good test.

[johngaltfla]

Well then, at lot has happened since I went to bed last night.

Quit napping! Sleep is overrated.

[Blinhart]

Will Dorians sustained winds rise even more?...190, or above?...is it possible?

Sadly I think it is possible that will have this get up to 200 if they keep on getting SFMR readings show over 200 MPH, and also they might get obs from buoys and other land stations that will verify the SFMR's.

[Ubuntwo]

Can a cyclone of Dorian's magnitude, be unaffected by the forecast steering patterns, and defy the projected forecast track?

Storms of this intensity can and often do form their own environment. So it's not unlikely for this storm to defy the models.

[AutoPenalti]

Can a cyclone of Dorian's magnitude, be unaffected by the forecast steering patterns, and defy the projected forecast track?

No other than the ridge pumping that seems a little confusing to me at times, it still follows upper level flow.

[KC7NEC]

Can a cyclone of Dorian's magnitude, be unaffected by the forecast steering patterns, and defy the projected forecast track?

Seems to happen with every Cat 5 storm but no scientific theory or hypothesis yet to use in forecasts.

[hipshot]

Does anyone have a link they will share to closeup satellite loops with latitude and longitude lines? I've been googling like crazy and can't find any although I've seen a few loops posted here as attachments. Thanks in advance.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

You can click on the globe on the left and go to mapping -> latitude and longitude to enable it.

Are my eyes playing tricks on me or did the wind field just expand as it approached the islands.

[1900hurricane]

A recent AMSU estimate is the first microwave estimate to break 140 kt. Size probably giving them fits.

[supercane4867]

Landfall loop

[SEASON_CANCELED]

One of the video feeds im watching has palm trees flying through the air.
...roots and all