The major problem is that when the winds and water reverse direction after being hit from one direction to being hit the other way will cause even more catastrophic damage.
ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
The major problem is that when the winds and water reverse direction after being hit from one direction to being hit the other way will cause even more catastrophic damage.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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ColdFusion
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
I hope that is the actual eye wall.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Ian2401
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
whats causing this to not dive WSW?
6 likes
B.S. Meteorology from Florida State '24 // Current M.S. Meteorology student at Florida State
Research Interests: Rapid Intensification, TC Climatology, TC Modeling
Consult the NHC for official information
Research Interests: Rapid Intensification, TC Climatology, TC Modeling
Consult the NHC for official information
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
sponger wrote:
I hope that is the actual eye wall.
I know. Unreal.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
So Miami is now under a Tropical storm Watch
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Bostonriff
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Watch when the camera pans left of the blue building; you can see the under-eye low-pressure-dome-generated surge roaring across the flat like a tsunami.https://twitter.com/rutkowski1PiS/status/1168221681636257792?s=19
Last edited by Bostonriff on Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Do not bet the ranch based on any non-official forecasts that may appear in the post above no matter how strongly argued they may be, because the fates are capricious and have Murphy's Law on speed-dial.
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019
...EYE OF CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE DORIAN OVER THE ABACOS ISLANDS IN
THE BAHAMAS...
...HEADING WITH ALL ITS FURY TOWARD GRAND BAHAMA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.1W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM OVER GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island
* North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the extremely distinct eye of Hurricane
Dorian was located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 77.1 West.
Dorian is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slower
westward motion should continue for the next day or two, followed by
a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of
extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Great
Abaco today and the move near or over Grand Bahama Island tonight
and Monday. The hurricane should move closer to the Florida east
coast late Monday through Tuesday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely, and Dorian is expected to remain a catastrophic
hurricane during the next few days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).
The minimum central pressure measured by both NOAA and Air Force
reconnaissance plane was 911 mb (26.90 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Catastrophic hurricane conditions are occurring in the Abacos
Islands and will spread across Grand Bahama Island later today and
tonight. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly
increase as the eye passes.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in
Florida by late Monday or early Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area on Monday and Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area by Monday night.
STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Volusia/Brevard County Line to Jupiter Inlet FL...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...2 to 4 ft
The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of
Dorian comes to the Florida east coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:
Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Central Bahamas and the Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula
through Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.
SURF: Large swells are already affecting east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
Hourly Tropical Cyclone Update statements will begin at 300 PM EDT.
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019
...EYE OF CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE DORIAN OVER THE ABACOS ISLANDS IN
THE BAHAMAS...
...HEADING WITH ALL ITS FURY TOWARD GRAND BAHAMA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.1W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM OVER GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island
* North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the extremely distinct eye of Hurricane
Dorian was located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 77.1 West.
Dorian is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slower
westward motion should continue for the next day or two, followed by
a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of
extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Great
Abaco today and the move near or over Grand Bahama Island tonight
and Monday. The hurricane should move closer to the Florida east
coast late Monday through Tuesday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely, and Dorian is expected to remain a catastrophic
hurricane during the next few days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).
The minimum central pressure measured by both NOAA and Air Force
reconnaissance plane was 911 mb (26.90 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Catastrophic hurricane conditions are occurring in the Abacos
Islands and will spread across Grand Bahama Island later today and
tonight. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly
increase as the eye passes.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in
Florida by late Monday or early Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area on Monday and Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area by Monday night.
STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Volusia/Brevard County Line to Jupiter Inlet FL...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...2 to 4 ft
The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of
Dorian comes to the Florida east coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:
Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Central Bahamas and the Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula
through Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.
SURF: Large swells are already affecting east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
Hourly Tropical Cyclone Update statements will begin at 300 PM EDT.
0 likes
-
p1nheadlarry
- Category 2
- Posts: 672
- Age: 33
- Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2014 2:42 pm
- Location: SR County FL
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
DeSantis on TWC, man knows his FL hurricane history!
8 likes
--;->#GoNoles--;->.
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ColdFusion
- S2K Supporter
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HurricaneFrances04
- Category 2
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- Location: Fort Lauderdale, Florida
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
SEASON_CANCELED wrote:galaxy401 wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:Wasn’t there a theory that hurricanes hate land? So they try to go around it?
A typhoon earlier this season did just that. It literally went around a small island.
I anxious on hearing about Jim Edds and Josh Morgerman. They probably went right in the eye. I'm more concerned about Jim since he was on a small flat island and it sounds like the storm surge was huge.
This cant be
Hurricanes do not stear themselves
It was a wobble during an eyewall replacement cycle
1 likes
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
-
floridasun78
- Category 5
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
- Location: miami fl
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Blinhart wrote:So Miami is now under a Tropical storm Watch
no watch here only broward for now we see if models show moving more west
1 likes
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
floridasun78 wrote:Blinhart wrote:So Miami is now under a Tropical storm Watch
no watch here only broward for now we see if models show moving more west
https://wbbh.images.worldnow.com/images/18726142_G.jpeg
So its just the offshore waters just off of Miami that is.
1 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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EquusStorm
- Category 5
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Unbelievable stuff. Definitely seeing Irma levels of tree shredding already... going to probably be the most destructive Bahamas hurricane on record.
1 likes
Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
-
TheDreamTraveler
- Category 2
- Posts: 641
- Joined: Sun Aug 22, 2010 3:10 am
- Location: PA
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Ian2401 wrote:https://i.imgur.com/XFkx58x.png
whats causing this to not dive WSW?
It’s a weakening steering flow, go -3 back and you’ll understand.
0 likes
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
I am praying that the Lord holds those people in the path in the storm in the palms of His hand.
I lost everything in Katrina 14 years ago and this storm has gouged out some serious scars that have yet to heal completely.
Please be safe out there.
I lost everything in Katrina 14 years ago and this storm has gouged out some serious scars that have yet to heal completely.
Please be safe out there.
9 likes
-
ScottNAtlanta
- Category 5
- Posts: 2387
- Joined: Sat May 25, 2013 3:11 pm
- Location: Atlanta, GA
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Here is something you dont see often...a storms vorticity all the way up to 200mb...also notice ULL to the west...its still there
Last edited by ScottNAtlanta on Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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