ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[shah83]

How does that trough look now, is it verifying model forecasts?

[jhpigott]

Any thoughts about whether Deerfield to Sebastian will go the Hurricane Warnings at some point?

[CrazyC83]

I would think that with a 93% chance of seeing TS winds in Broward the watch should be upgraded to a warning at 5pm.

Agreed, probably would need a TS warning (and a hurricane watch?) there, and a TS watch down to the Card Sound Bridge?

[chaser1]

I wonder if Hurricane watches will be expanded along the Florida coast soon?.

Probably northward at least. May need to add a touch to the south too?

Based on WXman87's 3 hour track motion averaging 284 at about 6 knot's, i'd be surprised to see added Hurricane Watch's to the south. Maybe T.S. watches assuming any increased expansion of the wind field? That would be a tad late considering onshore gusts to T.S. force that could come in squalls would seemingly occur as early as tomorrow sometime, right?

[CrazyC83]

Any thoughts about whether Deerfield to Sebastian will go the Hurricane Warnings at some point?

If the track shifts any bit to the west, at least part of that area will need one. I'd say north of Jupiter Inlet for now, since that is about where the 50% probability reaches.

[ColdFusion]

80 miles from the eye....

 https://twitter.com/chefjoseandres/status/1168199602895577088

[chris_fit]

Wobble Watch...

Back due W. Maybe even S of due W - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[ConvergenceZone]

3-hr movement on my workstation. Toward 284.8 deg. Moved 17 nm = 5.7 kts or 6.5 mph. Still slowing down. Josh Morgerman will have an interesting story to tell at next April's NTWC in S. Padre.

Sorry wxman if you are having to work extra hours during this storm .
Hopefully you will get some much deserved time off after this storm passes...

[CrazyC83]

I wonder if Hurricane watches will be expanded along the Florida coast soon?.

Probably northward at least. May need to add a touch to the south too?

Based on WXman87's 3 hour track motion averaging 284 at about 6 knot's, i'd be surprised to see added Hurricane Watch's to the south. Maybe T.S. watches assuming any increased expansion of the wind field? That would be a tad late considering onshore gusts to T.S. force that could come in squalls would seemingly occur as early as tomorrow sometime, right?

The watch would not be due to the timing for Miami-Dade though, but for the potential. That said, the latest NHC maps had a 50% chance of TS winds as far south as the Card Sound Bridge, so if that holds, that might call for a warning?

[storminabox]

Hurricane Dorian’s max potential has been realized... this is a very scary situation for the Bahamas. I never thought I’d see it reach anywhere near this intensity

Why do you say he has reached it's max potential, there is still really nothing to hinder or reduce him in the near future, he still has the Gulf Stream to get additional energy.

I’m just saying that this is pretty much as strong as a hurricane can get in the Atlantic, but I do agree that it could still intensify more given what you mentioned. Crazy storm indeed

[HurricaneFrances04]

3:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 1
Location: 26.6°N 77.2°W
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 910 mb
Max sustained: 185 mph

[AdamFirst]

That IR presentation is impressive...just unwavering as it crosses Abaco.

[SapphireSea]

Probably northward at least. May need to add a touch to the south too?

Based on WXman87's 3 hour track motion averaging 284 at about 6 knot's, i'd be surprised to see added Hurricane Watch's to the south. Maybe T.S. watches assuming any increased expansion of the wind field? That would be a tad late considering onshore gusts to T.S. force that could come in squalls would seemingly occur as early as tomorrow sometime, right?

The watch would not be due to the timing for Miami-Dade though, but for the potential. That said, the latest NHC maps had a 50% chance of TS winds as far south as the Card Sound Bridge, so if that holds, that might call for a warning?

Possibly. I think if it goes as forecasted it would be hard pressed until N of Jupiter to see any sustained TS winds. I think all current warnings account for bands containing TS and 50kt gusts. Matthew had some backlash since it's highly organized core kept winds away from the coasts even. I feel that on its path it wont be until at least N FL for the Winfield to expand due to shear

[wxman57]

3-hr movement on my workstation. Toward 284.8 deg. Moved 17 nm = 5.7 kts or 6.5 mph. Still slowing down. Josh Morgerman will have an interesting story to tell at next April's NTWC in S. Padre.

Sorry wxman if you are having to work extra hours during this storm .
Hopefully you will get some much deserved time off after this storm passes...

Day 14 of 10-12hr shifts. I don't mind as much if there is a real storm to follow. Working holiday weekends for a weak depression sucks. Quite a storm.

[abajan]

That makes 3 years in a row with a cat 5. That ever happened before?

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

4 years in a row matthew ,irma ,Michael, dorian

With Maria thrown in for good measure.

[TheDreamTraveler]

This is absolutely sad. She says how the storm took the roof off of a building people were staying in and as they were trying to move to another area the water swept some of them away.



 https://twitter.com/mushydumpling/status/1168219365587738624

[CrazyC83]

Are there any land weather stations in the region? I know they are likely mostly down but I remember in Irma we got excellent data from Barbuda verifying the fury.

[Airboy]

I can't see much of any speed slow down yet

[kn4ds]

Are there any land weather stations in the region? I know they are likely mostly down but I remember in Irma we got excellent data from Barbuda verifying the fury.

https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bs ... /IABACOGU2

[Nimbus]

3:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 1
Location: 26.6°N 77.2°W
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 910 mb
Max sustained: 185 mph

I had it running west ~39 minutes, could use another wobble NW..