ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Highteeld]

146/175
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bs ... alwx_today



Image copied as evidence lol

[birdwomn]

https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bs/guana-cay/IABACOGU2?cm_ven=localwx_today

144 gusting to 173 now. unreal this thing is still communicating

IABACOGU2 went offline six hours ago. Here is the direct link to that personal weather station:

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IABACOGU2

The one you just sent is offline.

[weathaguyry]

Looks like the majority of the population in Freeport is high enough to dodge the surge, however the airport is on the north side well in the inundation zone. The curvature of the coast would funnel the water into the airport area with the north wind, especially with waves on top of the surge. I’m very scared that the airport could get destroyed and make it nearly impossible for resources to come in to the 30,000 people that will need it most

[CrazyC83]

Another storm this reminds me a lot of is Typhoon Meranti...constantly overperformed its satellite presentation which was verified by a land station.

[Sanibel]

Green Turtle Cay took a direct hit from the hard north eyewall...

[CrazyC83]

Looks like the majority of the population in Freeport is high enough to dodge the surge, however the airport is on the north side well in the inundation zone. The curvature of the coast would funnel the water into the airport area with the north wind, especially with waves on top of the surge. I’m very scared that the airport could get destroyed and make it nearly impossible for resources to come in to the 30,000 people that will need it most

https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/styles/attachment-large/public/resources-pdf-previews/945474-TC_Irma_GrandBahama_MOM.png?itok=uVi3nk3_

They would probably turn a sports field or similar site into a makeshift airport if the main airport is destroyed. The only good thing about there is that it is less than 100 miles from the Florida coast (and about 110 miles from Miami which should be intact even on a western track) so goods can arrive relatively quickly.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Dorian is growing in size a little and it appears as if the cloud tops are cooling again. Is it possible this gets stronger than 185 in the Gulf Stream?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

We are actually getting storms in tampa that look like they may be part of dorian...coming from the east

We never get storms from the east

[marionstorm]

Looks like the majority of the population in Freeport is high enough to dodge the surge, however the airport is on the north side well in the inundation zone. The curvature of the coast would funnel the water into the airport area with the north wind, especially with waves on top of the surge. I’m very scared that the airport could get destroyed and make it nearly impossible for resources to come in to the 30,000 people that will need it most

https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/styles/attachment-large/public/resources-pdf-previews/945474-TC_Irma_GrandBahama_MOM.png?itok=uVi3nk3_

We will come in with helicopters off amphibious assault ship then.

[WAcyclone]

146/175
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bs ... alwx_today

https://i.imgur.com/U8GiNHl.png

Image copied as evidence lol

This is not a value measured by a weather station. It seems to be derived from the hourly forecast for Marsh Harbour. The last real value reported by IABACOGU2 was around 50 mph sustained with a pressure of 996 mb at 9:41 AM.

[Meteorcane]

146/175
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bs ... alwx_today

https://i.imgur.com/U8GiNHl.png

Image copied as evidence lol

Although that certainly seems like a viable speed to me given the location relative to the eyewall, is that an ob or the Wunderground (Weather Company) hourly forecast?

[johngaltfla]

We are actually getting storms in tampa that look like they may be part of dorian...coming from the east

We never get storms from the east

We get them every day at 4 p.m. to 7 p.m. during the summer and have for all my life when I'm here.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

We are actually getting storms in tampa that look like they may be part of dorian...coming from the east

We never get storms from the east

We get them every day at 4 p.m. to 7 p.m. during the summer and have for all my life when I'm here.

Nah those pop up. These came from Orlando area

[KWT]

Dorian is growing in size a little and it appears as if the cloud tops are cooling again. Is it possible this gets stronger than 185 in the Gulf Stream?

Most models have advertised Dorian growing in size as it turns northwards and its outflow especially picks up dramatically on the northern section of the storm.

[jlf7]

We are actually getting storms in tampa that look like they may be part of dorian...coming from the east

We never get storms from the east

We get them every day at 4 p.m. to 7 p.m. during the summer and have for all my life when I'm here.

Nah those pop up

Here's a radar loop that may show it. Click on the Melbourne one or another nearby.

http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics/radar/

[Kingarabian]

Dorian is growing in size a little and it appears as if the cloud tops are cooling again. Is it possible this gets stronger than 185 in the Gulf Stream?

Certainly. With Dorian, anything is possible. Thought it will be interesting to see if land interaction disrupts it. I mean conventional satellite algorithms argue that its cloud tops do not even support Cat.5 status, much less 185, but here we are... with confirmed 185mph winds.

[johngaltfla]

We are actually getting storms in tampa that look like they may be part of dorian...coming from the east

We never get storms from the east

We get them every day at 4 p.m. to 7 p.m. during the summer and have for all my life when I'm here.

Nah those pop up. These came from Orlando area

I drive to Vero, Melbourne, and TItusville almost every week on business. Guess what? They chase me home almost every time also (or is it I chase them when I'm running behind) from the middle of the state or east coast to the west coast. We will see some fragmented activity from Dorian but right now, this is our normal afternoon storms.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

We get them every day at 4 p.m. to 7 p.m. during the summer and have for all my life when I'm here.

Nah those pop up

Here's a radar loop that may show it. Click on the Melbourne one or another nearby.

http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics/radar/

Definately looks related or atleast Dorian is creating unstable air over florida

[wxman57]

I wonder if Hurricane watches will be expanded along the Florida coast soon?.

. They could be.posted later tonight by the 11:00 package, I would think maybe by 8;00, which would include Jacksonvile metro area.

I think we will see Warnings @ 5pm for Jax.

Duval County will also be announcing evac orders today at 5pm.

It's still about 60 hrs out from JAX. Maybe with the 11pm forecast, more likely in the morning.

[wxman57]

3-hr movement toward 291 deg at 6.5 kts.