ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KWT]

Also looks like its increasingly on a more WNW motion, though whether or not that is Dorian following the curve of the island as it moves in, I'm not sure, especially as in the last hour its gone back to a 275-280 type motion again.

[psyclone]

We are actually getting storms in tampa that look like they may be part of dorian...coming from the east

We never get storms from the east

Your assessment of our standard convective pattern is....highly inaccurate.. The mean flow in summer is from the east which is why a west or southwest flow is considered a "reverse summer pattern"

[Kat5]

3-hr movement toward 291 deg at 6.5 kts.

That may imply that the turn may be commencing, definitely going to be interesting the next 12 hours.

[wxman57]

I've heard several reports from clients in the past 30 minutes that on a recent call with the NHC, they were told that Dorian is predicted to make landfall between West Palm Beach and Volusia. I think they misheard. I sent a note to a friend of mine at the NHC but haven't heard back. I see nothing to indicate such a track, unless you're following the HWRF, which has been all over the place with each run.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 SEP 2019 Time : 192019 UTC
Lat : 26:39:35 N Lon : 77:11:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 935.9mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +18.2C Cloud Region Temp : -67.3C

Scene Type : EYE

[shah83]

Man, I'm not sure we needed to hear that, pro-Met!

[psyclone]

I've heard several reports from clients in the past 30 minutes that on a recent call with the NHC, they were told that Dorian is predicted to make landfall between West Palm Beach and Volusia. I think they misheard. I sent a note to a friend of mine at the NHC but haven't heard back. I see nothing to indicate such a track, unless you're following the HWRF, which has been all over the place with each run.

That would be an enormous shift west. Hard to believe

[wxman57]

Man, I'm not sure we needed to hear that, pro-Met!

I didn't say that was likely, I just said that's what they THINK they heard. Nothing to indicate a landfall there. Hurricane-force winds may not be too far offshore, though.

[AdamFirst]

I've heard several reports from clients in the past 30 minutes that on a recent call with the NHC, they were told that Dorian is predicted to make landfall between West Palm Beach and Volusia. I think they misheard. I sent a note to a friend of mine at the NHC but haven't heard back. I see nothing to indicate such a track, unless you're following the HWRF, which has been all over the place with each run.

http://wxman57.com/images/models.JPG

Could explain why local EOCs up and down the coast have ramped up evacuations today, particularly for barrier islands and mobile homes. Accounting for potential hurricane conditions.

[bamajammer4eva]

Nah those pop up

Here's a radar loop that may show it. Click on the Melbourne one or another nearby.

http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics/radar/

Definately looks related or atleast Dorian is creating unstable air over florida

Looks that way to me too with the Easterly flow and everything moving from East to West well north into Central Georgia. Very tropical looking although only indirectly associated until you get to the bands between Florida and the Bahamas.

[tropicwatch]

AF on its way now.

[galaxy401]

Man, I'm not sure we needed to hear that, pro-Met!

I didn't say that was likely, I just said that's what they THINK they heard. Nothing to indicate a landfall there.

Yeah don't know how reliable those reports are. Must be very stressful for you and all the other Pro-Mets right now.

[Ken711]

I've heard several reports from clients in the past 30 minutes that on a recent call with the NHC, they were told that Dorian is predicted to make landfall between West Palm Beach and Volusia. I think they misheard. I sent a note to a friend of mine at the NHC but haven't heard back. I see nothing to indicate such a track, unless you're following the HWRF, which has been all over the place with each run.

http://wxman57.com/images/models.JPG

I sure hope they misheard that information from NHC.

[shah83]

Yeah, but you're giving us hearsay and forcing everyone else to do some anxious paranoidial thinking! I mean, I'm not really serious, and I do think it's a reflection of taking the HWRF seriously, but still...

[jhpigott]

I've heard several reports from clients in the past 30 minutes that on a recent call with the NHC, they were told that Dorian is predicted to make landfall between West Palm Beach and Volusia. I think they misheard. I sent a note to a friend of mine at the NHC but haven't heard back. I see nothing to indicate such a track, unless you're following the HWRF, which has been all over the place with each run.

http://wxman57.com/images/models.JPG

Are you trolling storm2k?

J/k - I'm here in Jupiter about 1.5 miles from the ocean and my heart just skipped a (5) beats

[jlauderdal]

I've heard several reports from clients in the past 30 minutes that on a recent call with the NHC, they were told that Dorian is predicted to make landfall between West Palm Beach and Volusia. I think they misheard. I sent a note to a friend of mine at the NHC but haven't heard back. I see nothing to indicate such a track, unless you're following the HWRF, which has been all over the place with each run.

http://wxman57.com/images/models.JPG

unless nhc is going to bring it onshore at 5pm but that wouldn't seem reasonable based on the modeling at this point

[EnnisTx]

I've heard several reports from clients in the past 30 minutes that on a recent call with the NHC, they were told that Dorian is predicted to make landfall between West Palm Beach and Volusia. I think they misheard. I sent a note to a friend of mine at the NHC but haven't heard back. I see nothing to indicate such a track, unless you're following the HWRF, which has been all over the place with each run.

http://wxman57.com/images/models.JPG

That would be one helluva misunderstanding if so.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I've heard several reports from clients in the past 30 minutes that on a recent call with the NHC, they were told that Dorian is predicted to make landfall between West Palm Beach and Volusia. I think they misheard. I sent a note to a friend of mine at the NHC but haven't heard back. I see nothing to indicate such a track, unless you're following the HWRF, which has been all over the place with each run.

http://wxman57.com/images/models.JPG

This is coming from twitter

There is some sort of conspiracy going around that NHC is making up the north path to cause maximum destruction and death in the broward area and make trump look bad.

Yes i am being serious, read comments on NHC posts.

So carry on

[wxman57]

Just talked to the client again. They said the STATE meteorologist of Florida, whoever that is, is predicting the landfall, NOT the NHC.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Can anyone point out what the ridge looks like above Dorian currently?