ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Mandatory Evacuation orderrd by Sant Johns County Emergency Manangement. This includes the Saint Augustine area and neighboring beaches communities.

[jlauderdal]

I've heard several reports from clients in the past 30 minutes that on a recent call with the NHC, they were told that Dorian is predicted to make landfall between West Palm Beach and Volusia. I think they misheard. I sent a note to a friend of mine at the NHC but haven't heard back. I see nothing to indicate such a track, unless you're following the HWRF, which has been all over the place with each run.

http://wxman57.com/images/models.JPG

Could explain why local EOCs up and down the coast have ramped up evacuations today, particularly for barrier islands and mobile homes. Accounting for potential hurricane conditions.

the calendar is driving the evacuations...storm gets closer, they have to take action...i didnt put shutters up yesterday, i did today because its getting closer and closer..i wouldnt overthink the evac orders...remember, there is going to be significant surge regardless on the ec of florida especially north of wpb

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

I've heard several reports from clients in the past 30 minutes that on a recent call with the NHC, they were told that Dorian is predicted to make landfall between West Palm Beach and Volusia. I think they misheard. I sent a note to a friend of mine at the NHC but haven't heard back. I see nothing to indicate such a track, unless you're following the HWRF, which has been all over the place with each run.

http://wxman57.com/images/models.JPG

This is coming from twitter

There is some sort of conspiracy going around that NHC is making up the north path to cause maximum destruction and make trump look bad.

Yes i am being serious, read comments on NHC posts.

obviously dont want to get into political debates but that people going off the rails on psycho unfounded conspiracy theories doesnt surprise me. anything to question a scientific agency

[AutoPenalti]

At this point, I’m following real time changes instead of model watching...

Water Vapor, CIMSS, Recon data etc...

Any slight change affects the models entirely.

[Kat5]

Starting to see a more noticeable northern motion with it west movement.

[johngaltfla]

Just talked to the client again. They said the STATE meteorologist of Florida, whoever that is, is predicting the landfall, NOT the NHC.

Amy Godsey said that?!?!?

[hipshot]

Man, I'm not sure we needed to hear that, pro-Met!

I didn't say that was likely, I just said that's what they THINK they heard. Nothing to indicate a landfall there. Hurricane-force winds may not be too far offshore, though.

I keep seeing reports from recon (they may be a few hours old) that the storm is moving at about 275 and 7 mph. Is there something I am missing here
because that has been pretty steady of a report for several hours.

[hipshot]

Man, I'm not sure we needed to hear that, pro-Met!

I didn't say that was likely, I just said that's what they THINK they heard. Nothing to indicate a landfall there. Hurricane-force winds may not be too far offshore, though.

I keep seeing reports from recon (they may be a few hours old) that the storm is moving at about 275 and 7 mph. Is there something I am missing here
because that has been pretty steady of a report for several hours.

[JaxBeachFL]

. They could be.posted later tonight by the 11:00 package, I would think maybe by 8;00, which would include Jacksonvile metro area.

I think we will see Warnings @ 5pm for Jax.

Duval County will also be announcing evac orders today at 5pm.

Immediate coast and along the St. Johns only right? There's no way they'd expect everyone east of I-95 to move inland (not unless there were a significant westward shift that is)

I’m hearing for a & b only. Which I think covers all of the beaches & maybe some of the areas adjacent to the river. Additional zones dependent on track adjustments.

Announcing today, go into effect tomorrow

[KC7NEC]

Evacuations orders are going out now because they are almost out of time. It can take 24-48 hours to get evacuations done. People forget that it's not just telling people to leave; you have to have shelters, plans to get special needs person, homeless, prisoners.... lots and lots of logistics that take time to implement. Getting things rolling today is because if they wait until tomorrow there isn't time before things could get nasty out.

[KWT]

At this point, I’m following real time changes instead of model watching...

Water Vapor, CIMSS, Recon data etc...

Any slight change affects the models entirely.

Yeah, especially if its going to be a close call to whether it curves or not before any hurricane force winds hit the east coast of Florida. The margins we are talking about are still close enough that they warrent extreme attention. I really do want to see a more long term WNw/NW motion before thinking the models are right...especially given we know the models can be hasty in taking these systems northwards.

[HurryKane]

anything to question a scientific agency

Every season I am reminded that there’s no way the NHC crew gets paid enough for the grief they catch from the general public And especially not for the stress of having potentially millions of lives at stake while you’re writing a forecast/discussion.

[AutoPenalti]

Starting to see a more noticeable northern motion with it west movement.

Again, these are wobbles occurring which gives the illusion of a WNW movement.

[TheDreamTraveler]

People believing crazy conspiracies doesn't surprise me anymore. It makes me really doubt the future of humanity. Regardless you shouldn't listen to a bunch of randos online. A lot of them have bad intentions and are trying to purposely mislead you. Listening to the NHC or meteorologists you trust before you start listening to crazy people who have no basis in their theories lol

[Jr0d]

It's a wobble north. We won't know if it's a trend for a few more hours.

Every wobble, every knot of motion counts when it's this close though.

[KWT]

Man, I'm not sure we needed to hear that, pro-Met!

I didn't say that was likely, I just said that's what they THINK they heard. Nothing to indicate a landfall there. Hurricane-force winds may not be too far offshore, though.

I keep seeing reports from recon (they may be a few hours old) that the storm is moving at about 275 and 7 mph. Is there something I am missing here
because that has been pretty steady of a report for several hours.

As it made landfall Dorian jumped WNW, but has in the last hour bent back more to 275 again, maybe 280 at most. 3hr average of 290 was with that jump incorporated.

[Blown Away]

3-hr movement toward 291 deg at 6.5 kts.

Yeah, currently on the R edge of the 11am error cone... Maybe this will keep Dorian farther from Florida?

[Aric Dunn]

i guess no more G4 flights ?

[johngaltfla]

Starting to see a more noticeable northern motion with it west movement.

Again, these are wobbles occurring which gives the illusion of a WNW movement.

I always wait for 10-12 hours of position readings before determining if "this" is the change, etc. I just checked the water vapor loop and the ridge still looks solid north of the monster. Let's see if it deteriorates overnight.

[gatorcane]

If any kind of WSW movement happens like some of the UKMET and Euro ensembles show, boy is that going to start freaking folks in SE Florida out. So far Dorian has behaved but he does have a track record...