ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ptarmigan]

Yeah, I'd say the better news is the slowing down in the forward speed, probably indicating the steering currents are starting to weaken a little.

Key timeframe for the northerly turn appears to be 12z tomorrow, hopfully its gone NW/N fby that point.

Still moving west at 7mph

Ups...just now 5mph

Slower moving means heavier rain and higher storm surge. That would be really bad.

[Michele B]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...EYE OF CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE DORIAN CRAWLING OVER THE ABACOS
ISLANDS IN THE BAHAMAS...
...DORIAN'S FURY NOW AIMING TOWARD GRAND BAHAMA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 77.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...910 MB...26.88 INCHES

Isn’t this an AWFUL Lot of hours at Cat 5? I have seen storms at 5, but they usually back down within a few hours, don’t they?

[ozonepete]

Even a slight wnw is probably good to see.

Yeah, I'd say the better news is the slowing down in the forward speed, probably indicating the steering currents are starting to weaken a little.

Key timeframe for the northerly turn appears to be 12z tomorrow, hopfully its gone NW/N fby that point.

Still moving west at 7mph

no. West at 5 mph.

[birdwomn]

From NHC DIscussion: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 1457.shtml?

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

The distinct eye of powerful Hurricane Dorian is moving over
Great Abaco. The latest wind and pressure data from an Air Force
reconnaissance plane just before the eye hit the island indicated
that the winds reached 160 kt, which is the initial intensity for
this advisory. It is not very often that we measure such strong
winds. The minimum pressure measured by the plane was 910 mb.

The eye has been shrinking, and an eyewall replacement cycle is
possibly occurring. The effect of the island terrain and the
eyewall replacement cycle should result in some slight fluctuations
in intensity during the next 24 to 36 hours, but the hurricane will
continue to be extremely dangerous one during that time. After 3
days, a more definite weakening trend should begin as the hurricane
encounters stronger shear. Dorian however, it is forecast to remain
a hurricane for the next 5 days.

Dorian has slowed down even more and is now moving toward the west
or 270 degrees at 4 kt. The steering currents are collapsing and
Dorian is expected to slow down a little more, prolonging its
catastrophic effects in the northwestern Bahamas. The NHC forecast
calls for a slow west to west-northwest motion during the next 48
hours. A turn to the north and northeast with a gradual increase in
forward speed is expected thereafter, as the mid-level trough over
the eastern United States deepens. The current forecast is not very
different from the previous one, and it is very close to the
multi-model consensus TVCA. Both the deterministic and consensus
tracks have shown the usual variability to the right or to the left
from run to run, but the overall trend is for the hurricane to turn
northward offshore but dangerously close to the Florida peninsula.

Given the uncertainty in the track forecast and the anticipated
increase in size of the hurricane, a Hurricane Warning and Storm
Surge Warning have been issued for a portion of the Florida east
coast. It is once again emphasized that although the official track
forecast does not show landfall, users should not focus on the exact
track. A small deviation to the left of the track could bring the
intense core of the hurricane its dangerous winds closer to or onto
the Florida coast.

Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of catastrophic winds and storm surge will
affect the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island tonight. Everyone
there should take immediate shelter and not venture into the eye.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds
are expected along portions of the Florida east coast through
mid-week, and storm surge and hurricane warnings are in effect. Only
a slight deviation to the left of the official forecast would bring
the core of Dorian near or over the Florida east coast. Residents
should listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

3. There is an increasing likelihood of strong winds and dangerous
storm surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, North
Carolina later this week. Residents in these areas should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian and listen to advice given by
local emergency officials.

4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods,
are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal
sections of the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic regions of the
United States through late this week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 26.6N 77.3W 160 KT 185 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 26.7N 78.1W 155 KT 180 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 26.8N 78.7W 145 KT 165 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 27.0N 79.0W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 27.7N 79.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 30.0N 80.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 33.0N 78.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 36.5N 73.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[mutley]

5:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 1
Location: 26.6°N 77.3°W
Moving: W at 5 mph
Min pressure: 910 mb
Max sustained: 185 mph

Still slowing down. But very slowly slowing down. Slower than forecast?

[3090]

2hr movement toward 286 deg at 5.1 kts.

W @ 5mph. Not sure where the 286, @ 5.1 kts. is coming from. All said, I feel bad for so many along the east coast. Going to be close.

[supercane4867]

Nothing yet from Josh and Jim on Twitter. Hope they are doing okay

[gatorcane]

Back to nearly due west. There was a brief WNW wobble.

[Nimbus]

Even a slight wnw is probably good to see.

Yeah, I'd say the better news is the slowing down in the forward speed, probably indicating the steering currents are starting to weaken a little.

Key timeframe for the northerly turn appears to be 12z tomorrow, hopfully its gone NW/N fby that point.

Still moving west at 5.7mph

~41 minutes

[SFLcane]

Still no warnings for Broward county with a 93% percent probability of seeing them. Maybe tonight

[mutley]

Just out of curiosity. Does anyone truly believe that Dorian is not going to make the turn, and go right into Florida's coast somewhere?

[AutoPenalti]

Just out of curiosity. Does anyone truly believe that Dorian is not going to make the turn, and go right into Florida's coast somewhere?

It’ll make the turn, it’s just a matter of when.

[ozonepete]

Just out of curiosity. Does anyone truly believe that Dorian is not going to make the turn, and go right into Florida's coast somewhere?

Yeah. The NHC for one. Count me number two.

[plasticup]

Just out of curiosity. Does anyone truly believe that Dorian is not going to make the turn, and go right into Florida's coast somewhere?

I believe, as does the National Hurricane Center, that a Florida landfall is possible. Not likely, but very possible.

[DioBrando]

Just out of curiosity. Does anyone truly believe that Dorian is not going to make the turn, and go right into Florida's coast somewhere?

I think so

[mutley]

Just out of curiosity. Does anyone truly believe that Dorian is not going to make the turn, and go right into Florida's coast somewhere?

It’ll make the turn, it’s just a matter of when.

I assume you mean before it makes landfall.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Just out of curiosity. Does anyone truly believe that Dorian is not going to make the turn, and go right into Florida's coast somewhere?

*slowly raises hand* i think it will turn, just not in time to avoid a direct hit to a coastal town. if im wrong im wrong and that will be that.

[zal0phus]

Just out of curiosity. Does anyone truly believe that Dorian is not going to make the turn, and go right into Florida's coast somewhere?

Unofficial hunch of course but I have a horrible feeling this storm is going to clip Cape Canaveral as it goes by, probably as a low-end Cat 5. Either way this storm is absolutely horrifying...

[CronkPSU]

frankly an EWRC scares the @#!& out of me with no shear, no land slow movement and the Gulf Stream ahead, it could grow two or three times as large putting maybe even Orlando under the gun with hurricane force winds with the same track and it can cause it to move in weird ways, all it takes is a 5 hour wobble to devastate a section of Florida (including where i live) or later on in the Carolinas

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Just out of curiosity. Does anyone truly believe that Dorian is not going to make the turn, and go right into Florida's coast somewhere?

No..nhc is usually really good at this. We are all watching to make sure