ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ObsessedMiami]

John Morales just gave a literal 10 minute monologue about how this storm is going to turn and nothing bad is going to happen in Dade and Broward and MAYBE worst case scenario hurricane force winds in the upper corner of Palm Beach County. “They might have winds of 110 and that’s what you want to put shutters up for.”
He is really dismissive of people’s concerns. He is probably right but he grinds my gears as he speaks from MountOlympus, especially since he blew Dorians dissipation after PR

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

John Morales just gave a literal 10 minute monologue about how this storm is going to turn and nothing bad is going to happen in Dade and Broward and MAYBE worst case scenario hurricane force winds in the upper corner of Palm Beach County. “They might have winds of 110 and that’s what you want to put shutters up for.”
He is really dismissive of people’s concerns. He is probably right but he grinds my gears as he speaks from MountOlympus, especially since he blew Dorians dissipation after PR

idk who he is but he sounds really irresponsible and makes 110mph winds no big deal.

[hipshot]

Just out of curiosity. Does anyone truly believe that Dorian is not going to make the turn, and go right into Florida's coast somewhere?

Yeah. The NHC for one. Count me number two.

If it occurs, it may be a coastal cruiser and that too could be catastrophic , kind of a damned if you do and damned if you don't kind of deal.
If it recurves out to sea, that would be the best outcome of all but I haven't seen any thing about that lately and the closer it gets to the east
coast, the worse it could be.

[birdwomn]

Just out of curiosity. Does anyone truly believe that Dorian is not going to make the turn, and go right into Florida's coast somewhere?

No..nhc is usually really good at this. We are all watching to make sure

Directly from NHC 5pm Discussion:
"Only a slight deviation to the left of the official forecast would bring
the core of Dorian near or over the Florida east coast. Residents
should listen to advice given by local emergency officials."

[BobHarlem]

ahh wrong thread.

[Hurricane Andrew]

John Morales just gave a literal 10 minute monologue about how this storm is going to turn and nothing bad is going to happen in Dade and Broward and MAYBE worst case scenario hurricane force winds in the upper corner of Palm Beach County. “They might have winds of 110 and that’s what you want to put shutters up for.”
He is really dismissive of people’s concerns. He is probably right but he grinds my gears as he speaks from MountOlympus, especially since he blew Dorians dissipation after PR

idk who he is but he sounds really irresponsible and makes 110mph winds no big deal.

You all know me as probably the strictest "there's no such thing as a weak hurricane" poster on this board.

Allow me to reiterate.

If you think 110mph is "nothing", opening your mouth is dangerous to yourself and everyone around you.

70mph winds will topple a semi in the right conditions. 100mph winds can take out a window. Step outside in those 100mph winds? You'd better have something to hold onto, or you're going on a ride. If not, you'll get smacked by debris that is also traveling at 100mph. Do you know what it's like to take a chunk of roof at 100mph? I don't, and I never want to.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

on a separate note clearly Dorian has already met the requirements to earn a spot in retirement.

[ozonepete]

Just out of curiosity. Does anyone truly believe that Dorian is not going to make the turn, and go right into Florida's coast somewhere?

Um, wait a minute. Your question is worded very weirdly. Are you asking if most of us think it's going to hit Florida or are you asking if we think it's not?

[mutley]

Just out of curiosity. Does anyone truly believe that Dorian is not going to make the turn, and go right into Florida's coast somewhere?

Yeah. The NHC for one. Count me number two.

If it occurs, it may be a coastal cruiser and that too could be catastrophic , kind of a damned if you do and damned if you don't kind of deal.
If it recurves out to sea, that would be the best outcome of all but I haven't seen any thing about that lately and the closer it gets to the east
coast, the worse it could be.

I believe the turn will occur too, but it still worries me quite a bit that it might not.

[delta lady]

Mandatory evacuations just ordered for St. Johns County, including the entire cities of St. Augustine and St. Augustine Beach. Goes into effect tomorrow at 8 AM.

https://www.news4jax.com/weather/hurric ... -am-monday

Ironic I am close to A and F due to river. Basically a Cat 5 at high tide into Mayport would put 5 feet of water into the back of the neighborhood but I am still high and dry! Here is the map.

https://www.sjcemergencymanagement.com/ ... 208x11.pdf

I am on the South Bank across the St Johns from the Jaguars stadium. But quite high nevertheless.

[CrazyC83]

John Morales just gave a literal 10 minute monologue about how this storm is going to turn and nothing bad is going to happen in Dade and Broward and MAYBE worst case scenario hurricane force winds in the upper corner of Palm Beach County. “They might have winds of 110 and that’s what you want to put shutters up for.”
He is really dismissive of people’s concerns. He is probably right but he grinds my gears as he speaks from MountOlympus, especially since he blew Dorians dissipation after PR

idk who he is but he sounds really irresponsible and makes 110mph winds no big deal.

You all know me as probably the strictest "there's no such thing as a weak hurricane" poster on this board.

Allow me to reiterate.

If you think 110mph is "nothing", opening your mouth is dangerous to yourself and everyone around you.

70mph winds will topple a semi in the right conditions. 100mph winds can take out a window. Step outside in those 100mph winds? You'd better have something to hold onto, or you're going on a ride. If not, you'll get smacked by debris that is also traveling at 100mph. Do you know what it's like to take a chunk of roof at 100mph? I don't, and I never want to.

110 mph winds means power out for weeks. You may lose your roof as well and trees will be down everywhere.

[Aric Dunn]

So here is something fun... 11am advisory position... and the 5pm advisory position.. I decided to use the NHC website distance calculator for you.. just because.




alright so 53 NM is = 60 miles




sooo.. time between advisories is 6 hours..

therefore ... 60miles/6 hours = 10 mph

of course, some will argue forward motion is not the same as speed..
but since we are talking about the time it will take for dorian to travel some distance well.... yeah..
Carry on..

[jaxfladude]

First Coast once again preparing for another too close for comfort approach of a hurricane that could still be a major and might scrape the coast. Evacuation orders being issued for coastal and nearby areas prone to flooding......check local Jacksonville Florida news stations to updates

[1900hurricane]

Starting to get a bit of the Betty '87 look to it.

[Hurricane Andrew]

idk who he is but he sounds really irresponsible and makes 110mph winds no big deal.

You all know me as probably the strictest "there's no such thing as a weak hurricane" poster on this board.

Allow me to reiterate.

If you think 110mph is "nothing", opening your mouth is dangerous to yourself and everyone around you.

70mph winds will topple a semi in the right conditions. 100mph winds can take out a window. Step outside in those 100mph winds? You'd better have something to hold onto, or you're going on a ride. If not, you'll get smacked by debris that is also traveling at 100mph. Do you know what it's like to take a chunk of roof at 100mph? I don't, and I never want to.

110 mph winds means power out for weeks. You may lose your roof as well and trees will be down everywhere.

Indeed. And that's not even getting into the added difficulty of re-supply, emergency response, etc.

Plus, even if you are forecast to get "only 110mph winds", a wobble or two suddenly hits you with 130, or 140. Now you are running room to room trying to escape what's basically a one hundred mile wide tornado.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

John Morales just gave a literal 10 minute monologue about how this storm is going to turn and nothing bad is going to happen in Dade and Broward and MAYBE worst case scenario hurricane force winds in the upper corner of Palm Beach County. “They might have winds of 110 and that’s what you want to put shutters up for.”
He is really dismissive of people’s concerns. He is probably right but he grinds my gears as he speaks from MountOlympus, especially since he blew Dorians dissipation after PR

idk who he is but he sounds really irresponsible and makes 110mph winds no big deal.

You all know me as probably the strictest "there's no such thing as a weak hurricane" poster on this board.

Allow me to reiterate.

If you think 110mph is "nothing", opening your mouth is dangerous to yourself and everyone around you.

70mph winds will topple a semi in the right conditions. 100mph winds can take out a window. Step outside in those 100mph winds? You'd better have something to hold onto, or you're going on a ride. If not, you'll get smacked by debris that is also traveling at 100mph. Do you know what it's like to take a chunk of roof at 100mph? I don't, and I never want to.

exactly. anyone who dismisses 110mph winds is a blowhard and shouldnt have that type of job. his thinking gets people killed.

[KC7NEC]

Just out of curiosity. Does anyone truly believe that Dorian is not going to make the turn, and go right into Florida's coast somewhere?

Yeah. The NHC for one. Count me number two.

If it occurs, it may be a coastal cruiser and that too could be catastrophic , kind of a damned if you do and damned if you don't kind of deal.
If it recurves out to sea, that would be the best outcome of all but I haven't seen any thing about that lately and the closer it gets to the east
coast, the worse it could be.

Ive posted it several times that in reality at this point LANDFALL is the better option as running up the coast will leave a much longer path of destruction.

[sponger]

Florida landfall looks quite unlikely but a closer brush or/and a larger storm means trouble.

[NFLnut]

The 5pm places Dorian at 36 hrs at 79.0W

The 11am placed Dorian at 36 hrs at 79.0W

Considering this is 6 hrs later than the 11am, that is not an W adjustment as everyone feared. Unless my math is off. Like everyone else here, not much sleep since Monday. If only the 00z EURO would run at more reasonable hours.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/53rdWRS/status/1168273729169907715