ATL: KAREN - Models

[gatorcane]

The GFS looks too weak with Karen given the organization we are seeing.

[boca]

The GFS has a cold front sweeping thru and cleaning house with Jerry and Karen out to sea.

[chris_fit]

00Z CMC pretty much meanders Karen around for 10 days in this area, lol - waiting for the 12Z

[SouthFLTropics]

The GFS has a cold front sweeping thru and cleaning house with Jerry and Karen out to sea.

This is two runs in a row with it bringing a trough down and sweeping it out before it reaches the CONUS. It's hard to go against that reasoning at this time of year. The huge ridge with a West moving Karen from 60W all the way to Texas has definitely been suspect considering the fact we that we are approaching the October timeframe.

Let's see if the 12z Euro gets onboard with a trough scenario prior to CONUS impact.

[gatorcane]

The GFS has a cold front sweeping thru and cleaning house with Jerry and Karen out to sea.

This is two runs in a row with it bringing a trough down and sweeping it out before it reaches the CONUS. It's hard to go against that reasoning at this time of year. The huge ridge with a West moving Karen from 60W all the way to Texas has definitely been suspect considering the fact we that we are approaching the October timeframe.

Let's see if the 12z Euro gets onboard with a trough scenario prior to CONUS impact.

There is no such trough on the GFS Legacy or Euro.

[SouthFLTropics]

The GFS has a cold front sweeping thru and cleaning house with Jerry and Karen out to sea.

This is two runs in a row with it bringing a trough down and sweeping it out before it reaches the CONUS. It's hard to go against that reasoning at this time of year. The huge ridge with a West moving Karen from 60W all the way to Texas has definitely been suspect considering the fact we that we are approaching the October timeframe.

Let's see if the 12z Euro gets onboard with a trough scenario prior to CONUS impact.

There is no such trough on the GFS Legacy or Euro.

12z Euro has yet to run Gator. I know the 00z didn't show the trough.

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS has a cold front sweeping thru and cleaning house with Jerry and Karen out to sea.

This is two runs in a row with it bringing a trough down and sweeping it out before it reaches the CONUS. It's hard to go against that reasoning at this time of year. The huge ridge with a West moving Karen from 60W all the way to Texas has definitely been suspect considering the fact we that we are approaching the October timeframe.

Let's see if the 12z Euro gets onboard with a trough scenario prior to CONUS impact.

There is no such trough on the GFS Legacy or Euro.

Can’t discount it as the GFS was I believe the first model to predict Dorian not coming to Florida

[LarryWx]

The 12Z UKMET is a mess and it initialized her 40 miles too far north:

1) First, it has Karen fall apart quickly:
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 65.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.09.2019 0 17.8N 65.8W 1009 25
0000UTC 25.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

2) Then it redevelops her at hour 36 only to have her again fall apart at hour 72:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 24.2N 63.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.09.2019 36 24.2N 63.6W 1008 26
1200UTC 26.09.2019 48 26.2N 62.5W 1008 26
0000UTC 27.09.2019 60 27.9N 60.8W 1008 26
1200UTC 27.09.2019 72 CEASED TRACKING

[sma10]

The 12Z UKMET is a mess and it initialized her 40 miles too far north:

1) First, it has Karen fall apart quickly:
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 65.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.09.2019 0 17.8N 65.8W 1009 25
0000UTC 25.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

2) Then it redevelops her at hour 36 only to have her again fall apart at hour 72:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 24.2N 63.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.09.2019 36 24.2N 63.6W 1008 26
1200UTC 26.09.2019 48 26.2N 62.5W 1008 26
0000UTC 27.09.2019 60 27.9N 60.8W 1008 26
1200UTC 27.09.2019 72 CEASED TRACKING

I do respect the UK model, but I think we may have to wait another run to take any of its tracking too seriously. As you mention, according to the UK, in a few hours Karen will be dissipated and that doesn't seem to be the current trend.

[chris_fit]

CMC late today?

[chris_fit]

12Z EURO Running

[chris_fit]

[sma10]

Euro 24hr, well clear of Puerto Rico tomorrow morning, pressure 1006mb. Possible ... would suggest no further strengthening from now

[Blown Away]

12z Euro... Karen a little slower and Jerry a little faster, so some separation at 24 compared to previous...

[LarryWx]

Good news: 12Z Euro's hour 6 position (for 2 PM EDT) is near perfect vs reality. It is a little SW of the 6Z hour 12 and the 0Z hour 18. It is almost as if it knew about the shift of the center SW. That's pretty impressive that it was able to adjust like that unless it was just lucky.

So, since the initialization of the 12Z Euro was excellent, the run will be that much more informative.

[chris_fit]

[SFLcane]

No way it gets that far north without heading out...let alone threaten FL.

[LarryWx]

Based on the 12Z Euro being quite a bit SW of the 6Z and W of the 0Z, the 12Z should start moving westward at a lower latitude than the 6Z's 29N and from a further west longitude than the 60W of both the 6Z and 12Z. Let's see if this is what happens.

[chris_fit]

[boca]

I agree the Euro is going to lose the west motion and OTS or just meander than the next trough will catch it.