ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[floridasun78]

so now plane found center more south or sw were earlier today? that likely chance track bit to west Louisiana or near eastern texas let see nhc move track bit more too west were was earlier today

[BYG Jacob]

This isn't going to rapidly intensify. As Levi said in his video there's too much dry air/northerly shear around and it still has a long way to go before it becomes a TS.

This is pure -removed-

And those mentioning it could pull a Charley or Michael aren't?

Regardless he's correct about the flood threat, that will be the story due to already high river levels.

Nobody has said future Barry would RI into a cat 4 or 5. They’re saying it has happened, and may happen. Because this is the gulf we are talking about.

[MississippiWx]

so now plane found center more south or sw were earlier today? that likely chance track bit to west Louisiana or near eastern texas let see nhc move track bit more too west were was earlier today

The center is about right where it should be at this point. Nothing is really out of place for the moment.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This isn't going to rapidly intensify. As Levi said in his video there's too much dry air/northerly shear around and it still has a long way to go before it becomes a TS.

This is pure -removed-

... not really? The NHC is literally showing this intensifying from 40 knots to 85 knots in the span of 37 hours. That's a brisk intensification rate.

[BYG Jacob]

This isn't going to rapidly intensify. As Levi said in his video there's too much dry air/northerly shear around and it still has a long way to go before it becomes a TS.

This is pure -removed-

... not really? The NHC is literally showing this intensifying from 40 knots to 85 knots in the span of 37 hours. That's a brisk intensification rate.

Did you mean to quote the guy I quoted?

[crimi481]

Looks in bad shape. dry air - and sinking south.
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This is pure -removed-

... not really? The NHC is literally showing this intensifying from 40 knots to 85 knots in the span of 37 hours. That's a brisk intensification rate.

Did you mean to quote the guy I quoted?

EDIT: I'm so sorry, I was meaning to quote the guy you were quoting. My mistake.

[Steve]

Looks in bad shape. dry air - and sinking south.
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

Yeah there are some dry patches, but look at what GCANE has been posting the last couple of days with the theta e ridges and showing where there are very high CAPE values. Most mets look at that stuff anyway for forecasting, but he posts the most about it on the forum and stays on top of it. You can sometimes look at what he posts and anticipate when a system is going to get juiced or fade back based on moistures layers. It's mostly over my head, but there is enough I have come to understand to look at what he puts up.

[SoupBone]

New video from Levi Cowan.

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1149115662905872385

If you haven't watched this, Levi provides a great explanation regarding the UKMET. His thinking is that the front moving down will likely win out, but obviously there's still some uncertainty.

[Nancy Smar]

...SYSTEM IS ALMOST A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks in bad shape. dry air - and sinking south.
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

Didn't Levi mention that dry air might intrude somewhat overnight due to a decaying MCS?

[ScottNAtlanta]

Didn't Levi mention that dry air might intrude somewhat overnight due to a decaying MCS?

He did, but any effects from that are over. It was just a boundary pushed out from the collapsing convection.

[wxman57]

Weaker and farther east on the latest advisory, as expected. Time for bed. Alarm set for 4am.

[tarheelprogrammer]

What are the limiting factors for this system?

[davidiowx]

Weaker and farther east on the latest advisory, as expected. Time for bed. Alarm set for 4am.

Soo weaker and further east.. but just a day or two ago the mindset was along the lines of a weaker storm will move further west because it won’t be affected by the trough as much.. what’s changed today?

[BobHarlem]

Calling a few things out from the discussion.
"It should be noted that track errors are typically larger for potential tropical cyclones than more mature systems. In addition, the run-to-run consistency in the track models has been poor, so confidence in the details of the forecast is not high at the moment."

Implies this is a low confidence forecast.

And "The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and shows the system becoming a tropical storm on Thursday and a hurricane by late Friday. Additional strengthening is likely beyond the 48-hour point and the time it makes landfall, which is predicted to occur in a little less than 3 days.".

Which implies they really didn't touch intensity, just timings.

[CyclonicFury]

The predicted peak intensity is weaker but NHC does say they expect a peak intensity between hour 48 and 72.

[ConvergenceZone]

Weaker and farther east on the latest advisory, as expected. Time for bed. Alarm set for 4am.

Glad at least that it's forcasted to be weaker now.........There will still be tons of rain, but the "weaker" part is definitely good news! ! Let's hope the winds really come down on the next forecast

[MGC]

Looks in bad shape. dry air - and sinking south.
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

Didn't Levi mention that dry air might intrude somewhat overnight due to a decaying MCS?

Doubt dry continental air will be a factor. Latest sounding from LIX shows a moist atmosphere with a precipitable water of 2.31 inches. Should be a TD or TS by the morning.....MGC

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1149153700557934592