ATL: BARRY - Models

[plasticup]

Yeah, both of the HWRF and HMON would be a problem here. I'd get to see my first eye though.

It's the coolest thing ever. You know the dangers of going out in it, but worth the experience.

[NDG]

So if it wasn't that the UKMET has been overdoing the ridging to the NW of 92L past its 60 hr forecast I would give it some credit but as you can see below it has been over doing it.



Below is a comparison between the GFS (Green Heights) and UKMET (Orange Heights) for Saturday morning, as you can see the UKMET shows a lot more ridging to the N and to the E of 92L by then than compared to the GFS. Somewhere in between is the Euro but closer to the GFS solution than to the UKMET.
Time will tell if the UKMET is correct or not, the Euro and GFS would to make a huge left shift to the forecast track by tonight at the latest.

[SoupBone]

So if it wasn't that the UKMET has been overdoing the ridging to the NW of 92L past its 60 hr forecast I would give it some credit but as you can see below it has been over doing it.

https://i.imgur.com/YQNohL9.gif

Below is a comparison between the GFS (Green Heights) and UKMET (Orange Heights) for Saturday morning, as you can see the UKMET shows a lot more ridging to the N and to the E of 92L by then than compared to the GFS. Somewhere in between is the Euro but closer to the GFS solution than to the UKMET.
Time will tell if the UKMET is correct or not, the Euro and GFS would to make a huge left shift to the forecast track by tonight at the latest.

https://i.imgur.com/gS7Rq9L.gif

Well this isn't exactly comforting.

[wxman57]

HMON 18z is initialized and out to 3 hours
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 71018&fh=6

It has proven to be a very poorly-performing model.

[Hurricane Andrew]

HMON 18z is initialized and out to 3 hours
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 71018&fh=6

It has proven to be a very poorly-performing model.

How does it shape up to the old GFDL?

[wxman57]

HMON 18z is initialized and out to 3 hours
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 71018&fh=6

It has proven to be a very poorly-performing model.

How does it shape up to the old GFDL?

I don't believe that the GFDL is run any more, but I think the GFDL was much better. I would follow the HMON as much as I would the NAVGEM, NAM, or XTRP "model", which means not at all.

[Steve]

Agreed and I'm just reporting the run wx. It hasn't hit on much last year or this year.

[Aric Dunn]

So if it wasn't that the UKMET has been overdoing the ridging to the NW of 92L past its 60 hr forecast I would give it some credit but as you can see below it has been over doing it.

https://i.imgur.com/YQNohL9.gif

Below is a comparison between the GFS (Green Heights) and UKMET (Orange Heights) for Saturday morning, as you can see the UKMET shows a lot more ridging to the N and to the E of 92L by then than compared to the GFS. Somewhere in between is the Euro but closer to the GFS solution than to the UKMET.
Time will tell if the UKMET is correct or not, the Euro and GFS would to make a huge left shift to the forecast track by tonight at the latest.

https://i.imgur.com/gS7Rq9L.gif

last 2 runs the UKMET was pretty much dead on with ridge and trough placement and strength.. so yeah...

[jasons2k]

It's funny how times have changed over the years. I remember when the GFDL was considered to use cutting-edge technology (at the time). It was almost freaky with TD10/then-Katrina, the only model showing the SW hook over Florida. It was voodoo-like at the time.

Then, somehow, it became trash.

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro is rolling. Slightly a bit more west compared to the 12z.

[Aric Dunn]

18z Euro is rolling. Slightly a bit more west compared to the 12z.

i would say about 75 west and still moving west.. so a shift back this run starts turning at 66 hours

[HurricaneBrain]

Can you post some images?

18z Euro is rolling. Slightly a bit more west compared to the 12z.

i would say about 75 west and still moving west.. so a shift back this run starts turning at 66 hours

[Aric Dunn]

Can you post some images?

18z Euro is rolling. Slightly a bit more west compared to the 12z.

i would say about 75 west and still moving west.. so a shift back this run starts turning at 66 hours

no

[wxman57]

I plotted all the better models, including the consensus (TVCN) that that the NHC likes to stay close to. It takes the storm north between Baton Rouge & New Orleans! NHC's track is quite the outlier now. Only the UKMET and Canadian are to the west of NHC's.

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro is rolling. Slightly a bit more west compared to the 12z.

i would say about 75 west and still moving west.. so a shift back this run starts turning at 66 hours

Landfall over Vermilion it looks like @ 986mb.

[wxman57]

18Z EC takes the center inland just west of Vermilion Bay at 4pm Saturday.

[BigB0882]

Another horrible run for BTR for rain totals, I assume.

[Frank P]

18Z EC takes the center inland just west of Vermilion Bay at 4pm Saturday.

That looks to be in the general area and intensity of the past 2 or 3 Euro runs as I recall. So not a really big change in the grand scheme of things

[NDG]

18Z EC takes the center inland just west of Vermilion Bay at 4pm Saturday.

That's very close to 18z ICON's forecast.

[NDG]

The 18z Rapid Euro almost stalls it as it makes landfall just SW of Lafayette. For 12 hours on Saturday it only advances about 60 miles. That would be catastrophic flooding for parts of south central LA, it was to be correct.